動物能否感知地震？

今年5月10日，《華西都市報》曾經發表過《數十萬只蟾蜍跳上岸尋找新的“家”》一文，文中，綿竹市林業局對當地蟾蜍異常遷徙現象解釋道：“水溫高助蟾蜍繁殖，有利于減少當地蚊蟲。”在5·12汶川地震發生后，各地網民紛紛在網上質問：“地震局為什么不能根據這些反常現象預測出地震？”主流媒體China Daily也于5月13日發文對地震局提出質疑。那么，動物是否真的能感知地震？人類是否真的可以借助動物來預測地震呢？

The belief that animals can predict1) earthquakes has been around for centuries. In 373 B.C.， historians recorded that animals， including rats， snakes and weasels2)， deserted the Greek city of Helice in droves3) just days before a quake devastated4) the place.

Accounts of similar animal anticipation5) of earthquakes have surfaced across the centuries since. Catfish moving violently， chickens that stop laying eggs and bees leaving their hive in a panic have been reported. Countless pet owners claimed to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before the ground shook—barking or whining6) for no apparent reason， or showing signs of nervousness and restlessness.

But precisely what animals sense， if they feel anything at all， is a mystery. One theory is that wild and domestic creatures feel the Earth vibrate7) before humans. Other ideas suggest they detect electrical changes in the air or gas released from the Earth.

Earthquakes are a sudden phenomenon. Seismologists8) have no way of knowing exactly when or where the next one will hit. An estimated 500，000 detectable9) quakes occur in the world each year. Of those， 100，000 can be felt by humans， and 100 cause damage.

One of the world's most earthquake-prone countries is Japan， where devastation has taken countless lives and caused enormous damage to property. Researchers there have long studied animals in hopes of discovering what they hear or feel before the Earth shakes in order to use that sense as a prediction tool.

American seismologists， on the other hand， are skeptical10). Even though there have been documented cases of strange animal behavior prior to earthquakes， the USGS11)， a government agency that provides scientific information about the Earth， says a reproducible12) connection between a specific behavior and the occurrence of a quake has never been made.

\"What we're faced with is a lot of anecdotes13)，\" said Andy Michael， a geophysicist14) at USGS. \"Animals react to so many things—being hungry， defending their territories， mating， predators—so it's hard to have a controlled study to get that advanced warning signal.\"

In the 1970s， a few studies on animal prediction were done by the USGS. \"But nothing concrete came out of it，\" said Michael. Since that time the agency has made no further investigations into the theory.

幾百年來，相信動物能夠預知地震的想法就一直存在。公元前373年，根據歷史學家的記錄，在希臘海利斯城發生毀滅性大地震的前幾天，老鼠、蛇和臭鼬等動物就已經成群結隊地紛紛遷出了這座城市。

自那以后的數百年里，類似的動物預知地震的記載就紛紛浮出水面。鯰魚激烈游走、母雞停止下蛋、蜜蜂慌亂離開蜂巢等，都可見諸報道。不計其數的寵物主人稱，在地震發生之前親眼目睹了其寵物貓和寵物狗的怪異行為——毫無理由地狂吠或哀鳴，或顯露出緊張和煩躁不安的跡象。

但是，如果動物們真的有所感覺，那么，它們究竟感覺到了什么卻是一個謎。有一種理論認為野生和家養的動物能夠比人類更早感知地球的震動。另外一些觀點則認為動物能發覺空氣中的電流變化或是由地球內部釋放出來的氣體。

地震是一種突發現象。地震學家們無法確切知道下一次地震將會于何時何地發生。據估計，全世界每年有50萬次可檢測出的地震發生，這其中有10萬次可以被人類感知到，100次會造成損傷。

日本是世界上最易發生地震的國家之一，發生在這個國家的地震災害奪走了無數人的生命，也造成了巨大的財產損失。長期以來，日本的研究者一直在對動物進行研究，希望能夠發現地震前動物們的所聞所感，以便將其感知功能用作地震預測工具。

然而，美國的地震學家們對此卻持懷疑態度。即使有資料記錄了在地震發生之前動物們的反常行為，但是提供地球相關科學信息的政府部門美國地質勘探局(USGS)表示，從未建立起某一特定行為與地震發生之間的可再現聯系。

“我們現在所面對的是大量的奇聞軼事，” USGS的地球物理學者安迪·邁克爾說， “動物們對很多事情產生反應——饑餓、保衛自己的領域、交配、敵人——因此很難進行一次可掌控的研究來提前獲得報警信號。”

20世紀70年代，USGS對動物預測進行過一些研究，“但是沒有得出任何實質性的結果，”邁克爾說。此后，該機構沒有再對該理論進行進一步的調查研究。

Erratic15) Behavior in Dogs

Researchers around the world continue to pursue the idea， however. In September， 2003， a medical doctor in Japan made headlines with a study that indicated erratic behavior in dogs， such as excessive barking or biting， could be used to forecast quakes.

There have also been examples where authorities have forecast successfully a major earthquake， based in part on the observation of the strange antics16) of animals. For example， in 1975 Chinese officials ordered the evacuation17) of Haicheng， a city with one million people， just days before a 7.3-magnitude18) quake. Only a small portion of the population was hurt or killed. If the city had not been evacuated， it is estimated that the number of fatalities19) and injuries could have exceeded 150，000.

The Haicheng incident is what gave people hope that earthquakes might be predictable， says Michael， and what prompted the animal behavior studies by the USGS.

It was later discovered， though， that a rare series of small tremors20)， called foreshocks， occurred before the large quake hit the city.

\"It was the foreshock sequence that gave (Chinese officials) the solid prediction，\" Michael said.

Still， the Chinese have continued to look at animal behavior as an aid to earthquake prediction. They have had several notable successes and also a few 1 alarms， said Rupert Sheldrake， a biologist and author of the books， Dogs that Know When Their Owners Are Coming Home and The Sense of Being Stared At.

A reproducible connection between animal behavior and earthquakes could be made， he said， but \"as the Chinese have discovered， not all earthquakes cause unusual animal behavior while others do. Only through research could we find out why there might be such differences.\"

Sheldrake did his own study looking at animal reactions before major tremors， including the Northridge， California， quake in 1994， and the Greek and Turkish quakes in 1999.

In all cases， he said， there were reports of peculiar21) behavior beforehand， including dogs howling22) in the night mysteriously， caged birds becoming restless， and nervous cats hiding.

Geologists， however， dismiss23) these kinds of reports， saying it's \"the psychological focusing effect，\" where people remember strange behaviors only after an earthquake or other catastrophe has taken place. If nothing had happened， they contend， people would not have remembered the strange behavior.

Reporting Strange Behavior

Sheldrake disagrees. Comparable patterns of animal behavior prior to earthquakes have been reported independently by people all over the world， he said. \"I cannot believe that they could all have made up such similar stories or that they all suffered from tricks of memory.\"

More research is needed and is long overdue24)， said Sheldrake， who proposes a special hotline or Web site where people could call or write in if they saw strange behavior in their animals. A computer would then analyze the incoming messages to determine where they ori-ginated. A sudden surge of calls or e-mails from a particular region might indicate that a quake was imminent.

The information would be checked to make sure the observations were not caused by other circumstances known to affect the behavior of animals， such as fireworks， or changes in weather. And to avoid issuing 1 warnings， Sheldrake said， the data would be used in conjunction25) with other monitoring devices such as seismological measurements.

\"Such a project would capture the imagination of millions of people， encourage large-scale public participation and research，\" he said. \"What is holding this research back is not money but dogmatism26) and narrow-mindedness.\"

狗表現出來的怪異行為

然而，世界各地的研究者們卻繼續就這個設想進行研究。2003年9月，日本頭條新聞刊登了一位醫學博士的研究，該研究表明狗表現出來的怪異行為，如異常狂吠或咬人，可以用來預測地震。

另外，也存在一些機構以觀察到的動物反常舉動作為其部分依據，成功預測出大地震的實例。例如，1975年，中國官員下達了疏散海城近百萬人員的命令。僅在數天之后，海城就發生了7.3級大地震，僅有很小一部分人傷亡。如果沒有對該城市進行疏散，那么傷亡人數估計會達到15萬人以上。

邁克爾說，正是海城事件給了人們希望，認為地震也許是可預測的，也促使USGS對動物行為展開了研究。

然而后來才發現，在海城大地震發生之前，已發生了極少量卻是一系列的小震動，或稱之為前震。

邁克爾說：“正是這些前震的先后發生給了(中國官員)可靠的預測。”

中國仍然繼續將動物行為作為預測地震的輔助手段。英國生物學家、《狗狗知道你要回家？》和《被人注視的感覺》兩書的作者魯珀特·謝爾德雷克說，中國有過幾次顯著的成功經歷，但也有過一些錯誤的預警。

他還說，動物行為和地震之間的可再現聯系是可以建立的，但是“正如中國人所發現的一樣，并非所有的地震都能夠引起動物們的反常行為，盡管有些地震的確如此。只有通過研究，我們才能夠找出為何會存在這種差異。”

謝爾德雷克個人對大地震發生之前動物們的反應進行了研究，包括1994年發生在美國加州北嶺的大地震，以及1999年發生在希臘和土耳其的大地震。

他說，在所有這些案例中，都有關于地震前動物反常行為的報告，諸如狗在夜里莫名其妙地狂吠，鳥籠里的鳥變得煩躁不安，以及貓緊張地躲藏。

然而，地質學家們對這類報告嗤之以鼻，認為這只是“心理集中效應”，即人們只在地震或是其他災害發生之后，才記得一些怪異反常的行為。他們聲稱，如果一切如常，人們就不會記得這些怪異行為。

報告怪異行為

謝爾德雷克不同意這種說法。他說，類似的地震前動物行為樣本是世界各地的人們獨立報告的，“我無法相信他們全部都能夠編造出如此相似的故事，或是他們都受了記憶詭計的欺騙。”

謝爾德雷克說，還需要進行更多的研究，而且這些研究早就該進行了。他還建議專門成立一條熱線或是一家網站，當人們發現動物的反常行為時，可以打入該熱線或是寫入該網站。然后用一臺電腦對這些信息進行分析，斷定來源地。如果某個特定區域的電話或電郵數量突然猛增，則極有可能暗示著該地區將發生地震。

然后對這些信息進行核實，確保這些觀察不是由于其他一些已知的能夠對動物行為產生影響的因素造成的，如煙花炮竹，或是天氣變化。謝爾德雷克還說，為了避免發布錯誤的預警，在采用這些數據的同時，還應使用其他監測設備，如地震測量器材。

“這樣的計劃會吸引數百萬人的注意力，鼓勵廣泛的公眾參與和研究，” 謝爾德雷克說，“但是，阻礙這項研究進行的不是資金問題，而是教條主義和狹隘主義思想。”

Youth Olympic Games

青少年奧運會

The Youth Olympic Games (YOG) are planned to be a \"junior\" version of the Games， complementing the current \"senior\" Games， and will feature athletes between the ages of 14 and 18. The idea for such an event was envisioned (預想) in 2001 by IOC president Jacques Rogge， and at the 119th IOC session in Guatemala City in July 2007， the IOC approved the Games.

The Youth Games versions will be shorter: the summer version will last at most twelve days; the winter version will last a maximum of nine days. The IOC will allow a maximum of 3，500 athletes and 875 officials to participate at the summer games， while 970 athletes and 580 officials are expected at the winter games. Each participating country would send at least four athletes. The sports contested at these games will be the same as those scheduled for the traditional Games， but with a limited number of disciplines and events， and including some with special appeal to youth. Education and culture are also key components for this Youth edition.

Estimated costs for the game are currently $30 million for the summer and $15~$20 million for winter games. It has been stated the IOC will \"foot the bill\" for the Youth Games.

The first host city will be Singapore in 2010; the bidding for the first winter edition in 2012 is underway.