New development of USA’s Rebalance to Asia and its impacts to regional Situation

By Zhao Yi,

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New development of USA’s Rebalance to Asia and its impacts to regional Situation

By Zhao Yi,

Associate Professor National Defense University

Since July 2010, U.S. Secretary of the Department of State Hillary Rodham Clinton declared Return to Asia when she was attending the annual ARF, the Obama administration has taken comprehensive measures including military, political, economic and cultural instruments to influence countries in the West Pacific region. Obviously, USA has witnessed quite a few achievements which are very concerned by China.

A. New development of USA’s Rebalance to Asia

1, Strengthening cooperation with alliances in West Pacific region

USA has several alliances in West Pacific, which are Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. In the past two years, USA strengthened its defense cooperation with these countries respectively because it regards the allies as pillars to carry out the strategy of Rebalance to Asia.

USA has deepened its defense cooperation with Japan by adjusting its military presence in Okinawa, Yokohama, and so on. With the Hawk aircraft carrier’s retirement, the Pentagon deployed Washington aircraft carrier to Yokohama. Now, the Regan aircraft carrier is in place of Washington since it returns to USA to get the overhaul. If the military budget permits in FY 2016, the Washington air craft carrier will return to Japan.1So it’s possible that two aircraft carriers be deployed in the West Pacific region. Last month, when the U.S. Secretary of DOD Chuck Hagel wrapped up his visit to Japan, he told the media that the United States will send two Aegis Destroyers to Japan by 2017 in order to counter against the ballistic missile threat from DPRK.2And U.S. President Obama repeated the commitment when he visited Japan from April 25thto 27th

USA enhanced its military presence in Korean Peninsula with ROK. In February 2013, when USA and ROK jointly initiated a fire drill, B-2 stealth strategic bombers participated, taking off from U.S. homeland. In January 2014, an infantry battalion with 800 servicemen, joining in the second Division in South Korea, was deployed near the border line between the two Koreas. USA and ROK made a deal that USA still have the power of commanding the joint forces after 2015.

The Philippines and USA singed a new deal titled as(EDCA) when President Obama made his last leg of visit to Asian countries in April. According the agreement, the Philippines will open several military bases to accommodate USA’s rotational troops and equipments. Moreover, USA can build facilities in the relevant bases. That is, it will have its own military bases inside military bases although both of them have denied that.3

USA and Australia were committed to upholding mutual defense cooperation when they issued a MOU in 2011, in memory of their 60th anniversary of alliance. As we know, USA promised to send 2500 marine troops in Darwin Port by 2015.4A few weeks ago, more than 1,000 marines arrived in Australia. It’s evident that USA’s action is to monitor the situation of the critical sea lane from South China Sea via Malacca Strait to Indian Ocean.

2. Increasing defense cooperation with partners

USA has built partnership with many countries in the West Pacific regions in order to develop cooperation. China is one of the USA’s partners, but not the priority for USA to develop military cooperation. From 2013 to date, USA has achieved military cooperation with Singapore, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Malaysia. In April 2013, Freedom, the first commissioned Littoral battle ship, began to voyage toward Singapore. When it arrived, the battle ship participated in at least 3 military exercises in the South China Sea. U.S. navy chief made his visit to Malaysia in February.5It’s possible for Malaysia to procure the first submarine from US navy. Last August, US defense secretary Hagle visited Indonesia with the outcome of big arms sale amounting to $500 million, including the Apach helicopters.6Defense cooperation between USA and Vietnam is restricted by U.S. laws. USA cannot provide lethal weaponry for Vietnam, but both of them have a strong will to develop military cooperation. Currently they set out to remove the ordinance being left during the Vietnam war. Additionally, USA is committed to helping Vietnam build Coast Guard force for maritime security.7

3. Exercising Western democracy and values for pro-America feelings

USA focuses on Myanmar to export its democracy and values under the background of Rebalance to Asia. In December 2011, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary visited Myanmar. At that time she was the most senior official to visit Myanmar since 1955. She met the dissident Ang San Su Ki after meeting her Myanmar counterparts. President Obama’s visit in November 2012 brought substantial change of U.S.-Myanmar relations, because USA dismantled all sanctions against Myanmar after his visit. Now USA is giving guidance and help for Myanmar’s election next year.8

Besides Myanmar, USA is engaging in political affairs in Cambodia and Laos too.

4. Building Asia-Pacific economic sphere led by USA via TPP

From 2009, USA has joined and quickly got a predominant role in TPP. It intends to build Asia-Pacific economic sphere under its leadership. On the other hand, it initiated TTIP with EU. So, it could establish a global economic network with both of them.

With regard to TPP, USA is busy in consultation with Japan, Malaysia, Viet Nam, etc. It is possible that TPP accommodate all the main Asia- Pacific economies other than China and Russia.

B. Regional Impacts of Rebalance to Asia

1. Raising China’s concern of USA

American officials have promised on many occasions that the strategy of Rebalance to Asia is not intended to contain China. For instance, Hillary expressed in her address that USA welcomes a peaceful, prosperous and responsible China emerging in East Asia. It has no intention to contain China. Recently, Chuck Hagel stated that a dynamic relationship with China is part of Rebalance to Asia. He said that America’s rebalancing to Asia-Pacific is about ensuring its presence and engagement – including our relationship with China – keeps pace with the Asia-Pacific’s rapidly evolving economic, diplomatic, and security environment.”9

Those explanations should be understood. But China was contained by USA and its allies in the Cold War time. After the Cold War, China suffered from USA’s sanctions for a considerable period. Any change of USA’s foreign policy may arouse China’s caution, particularly when it is related to China.

On the other hand, some of the actions by USA really make Chinese people feel concerned and worried. For instance, the joint statement between USA and Japan after President Obama’s visit declares that the treaty covers the Diaoyu Islands. The United States has deployed its most advanced military assets to Japan and provides all necessary capabilities to meet its commitments under the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. These commitments extend to all the territories under the administration of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands.”10As it is known that USA promises taking no side in the East China Sea and South China Sea issues. But it is really encouraging Japan to escalate the tension in East China Sea. The Philippines receives intelligence and information about China’s actions in the South China Sea with the help of U.S. equipments. Although officials at different levels maintain dialogue and communication between the two countries, U.S. actions really raise doubt and discomfort for China. At least, U.S. actions are ambiguous. Therefore, China has to take some counteractions. That is one reason that confidence building between the two powers can not reach to a plausible level. Indirectly, security situation is affected by de facto of Sino-U.S. interactions.

2. More militarizing the East Asian region

Initially, this is the argument of American friends in terms of the current East Asian situation, particularly when they refer to China’s military capability and military budget. Two weeks ago, when Chuck Hagel made an address in the National Defense University of PLA, he officially commented the situation in East Asia with this argument. “The Asia-Pacific region is the most militarized in the world, and any one of these challenges could lead to a conflict, a deadly conflict.”11He explained that is why USA needs to Rebalance to Asia in order to ensure the regional security since it has the responsibility to do that. However, part of the reasons that cause East Asian militarization are from USA. Without looking back to history, U.S. actions at present in East Asia can prove the observation. Its new deployments of F-35 fighter jets, Global Hawk drones, and Aegis destroyers in Japan really encouraged Japan to be away from the Peace Constitution. Its arms sale to Taiwan really poses obstacles for the development of cross-strait relations. U.S. Rebalance to Asia really gives chances for ASEAN countries to upgrade their military.

As a result, East Asia is continuously on the top list of military procurement according to the annual report of SIPRI.

3. Potentially splitting ASEAN

ASEAN is a group of middle and small countries across South East Asia. Most of them follow hedging and balancing strategy for their security. As a result, attitudes toward the U.S. Rebalance to Asia are different, with FOUR attitudes as follows. First, the Philippines supports and applauds it unconditionally. Second, Singapore and Indonesia welcome its engagement in South East Asia, while dislike neglecting China’s role in this region. Third, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand hope that U.S. engagement will not affect their good relations with China. Fourth, Viet Nam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos still have doubts on U.S. strategy although they have got benefits from it.

Different attitudes toward the U.S. Rebalance to Asia make ASEAN countries embarrassed in dealing with regional security affairs. They are difficult to achieve substantial consensus. ASEAN has a blueprint to develop into a regional community in security, economy and culture. But without consensus, it will be a Utopian. That is why the process of ASEAN connectivity can not keep pace with the plan. The potential possibility exists that the organization could be split other than being wedged for disputes by all powers outside of the region.

Conclusion

The U.S. Rebalance to Asia is composed of political, economic, military and cultural means, currently with the military instrument being predominant. Absolutely, the Rebalance to Asia has made achievements with the collaborations of U.S. alliances and partners. In the future, USA will preserve its leading role in the Asia-Pacific region via the strategy. However, not all of the Asia-Pacific countries unanimously accept and support the strategy including China. Quite a few Asian countries are selective to support the strategy even including Japan. As a result, it’s necessary for USA to make adjustments and amendments continuously. One notable point is that USA needs to consider China’s concern all the time. Security in East Asia can be protected only if interactions between China and USA remain constructive, effective and trustful. Unfortunately, suspicion and misunderstanding are widespread not only in China but also in USA.

Notes：

1.Quadrennial Defense Review 2014

2.http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121992

3.http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-philippines-usa-idUSBREA2D0GE20140314

4.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/16/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-gillard-australia-joint-press

5.http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/malaysia-us-maritime-ties-to-strengthen

6.http://www.news.com.au/world/us-sells-eight-apache-attack-helicopters-to-indonesia-to-boost-ties-with-southeast-asia/story-fndir2ev-1226704627652

7.http://www.thanhniennews.com/index/pages/20131218-vietnam-praises-us-planned-assistance-to-enhance-maritime-security.aspx

8.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/21/remarks-prepared-delivery-national-security-advisor-susan-e-rice

9.http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1838

10.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/25/us-japan-joint-statement-united-states-and-japan-shaping-future-asia-pac

11.http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1838