人人都期待的四大未來發明

阿瓊

In this article we'll look at four future inventions we've been waiting for all our lives. Which ones are just around the corner， and which ones are mere fantasies？

無人駕駛汽車

We humans are often the most dangerous part of an automobile. That's why scientists have been working on automated highway technology for decades. In the 1990s， the U.S. Department of Transportation sponsored the National Automated Highway System Consortium （NAHSC）， which successfully demonstrated the potential of radar， magnetic1） and visual sensors that allowed test vehicles to navigate2） a specially prepared length of highway. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency （DARPA） also underwrote3） an autonomous vehicle research and development program， culminating in4） its 2007 Urban Challenge5）.

But this is one future invention that we're probably going to see sooner rather than later. Since 2007， Google scientists and engineers have been working to develop autonomous vehicles that use artificial intelligence software and Google Maps to navigate. Testing of driverless cars on public roads actually has been approved in Nevada， Florida and California. In fact， Google says that about a dozen self-driving cars are on the road at any given time， and they've travelled 500，000 miles （804，672 kilometers） in beta tests6）.

Google still awaits federal and state regulatory approval to engage in more extensive tests， and it's still unclear when—or rather， if—ordinary folks will be able to buy a car that drives itself. But there's talk that Google is set to build its own driverless car. Electric car company Tesla is also throwing its driving cap into the race， claiming it can have a car that does 90 percent of the work by 2016.

我們人類通常是一輛汽車中最危險的因素，所以科學家們才會數十年來一直致力于研究自動高速公路技術。在20世紀90年代，美國交通部向國家自動高速公路系統協會提供了資助，后者成功地展現了雷達、磁力傳感器和視覺傳感器的潛力，這些儀器輔助許多受測車輛通過了一段經過特別安排的公路。美國國防部高級研究計劃署也資助了一個自動車輛的研發項目，并最終在2007年舉辦了無人駕駛汽車城市挑戰賽。

不過這一未來發明我們可能不久就會看到其成為現實。自2007年以來，谷歌的科學家和工程師就一直致力于開發由人工智能軟件和谷歌地圖導航的自動車輛。內華達州、佛羅里達州和加利福尼亞州也早已準許無人駕駛汽車上公路進行實測。事實上，谷歌公司稱，在任意指定的時段里大約有12輛自動駕駛汽車在公路上行駛，在β測試中它們已行駛了50萬英里（804，672公里）。

谷歌還在等待聯邦和州的審批，以便進行更廣泛的測試，但是什么時候——或者更確切地說，是否有那么一天——普通人能夠購買一輛可以自動駕駛的汽車還是個未知數。不過，據說谷歌將要開發自己的無人駕駛汽車。電動汽車制造公司特斯拉也決心投入這場競賽中，聲稱其可以在2016年之前制造出一輛90%自動駕駛的汽車。

水下城市

The ocean presented early humans with a vast mystery. What worlds and fabulous7） creatures exist in the deep？ Today， our understanding has expanded， but the world's waters still offer us an abundance of mystery and awe8）. We dream less about mermaid cities and sunken Atlantis and instead imagine underwater metropolises and seafloor colonies.

This zeal9） was especially strong in the late 1950s and early 1960s， when Jacques Cousteau's Conshelf project10） and the United States Navy's Sealab saw the dream of undersea living realized. Both programs proved that humans can live and work for an extended time underwater. The test subjects11） tended12） underwater gardens， tackled13） underwater construction projects and lived the life of an aquanaut14）.

Half a century later， the underwater cities still aren't here. Sure， we have unrealized designs such as Giancarlo Zema's semisubmerged Trilobis 65 dwelling and the proposed underwater Dubai Hydropolis， but very few underwater habitats. The bottom line15） is that while humans can live underwater， it's not an easy or cheap life. It's also not necessary.

對于早期人類來說，海洋是一個巨大的謎團。在深海之下存在著什么樣的世界和神奇的生物呢？今天，我們的認識已經有所拓展，但是這個世界的水域還是讓我們覺得無比神奇，讓我們充滿敬畏。我們不再總是遐想著美人魚的城市和沉沒的亞特蘭蒂斯城，而是開始想象水下的都市和海底殖民地。

這種對海洋世界的熱情在20世紀50年代末到60年代初的時候尤其強烈，當時雅克·庫斯托的“大陸架計劃”和美國海軍的海洋實驗室都見證了海底生活之夢的實現。兩個項目都證明了人類可以長時間在水下生活和工作。那些實驗對象打理水下花園，著手水下建設工程，過著海底實驗室工作人員的生活。

半個世紀過去了，水下城市仍未建成。當然，我們有些尚未實現的設計，如賈恩卡洛·澤馬（編注：意大利著名設計師）的半潛式居住游艇“Trilobis 65”，還有尚在計劃中的迪拜水下酒店Hydropolis，但很少有水下居住地。最重要的是，雖然人類可以在水下生活，但這樣的生活既費力也不劃算，而且也沒必要。

機器人女傭

The most obvious answer to a complaint about the lack of robot maids is of course， "Hey， buddy， go buy a Roomba16）." Because while they don't really resemble George Jetson's robotic maid Rosie， modern bots do carry out a host of floor vacuuming17）， tile18） scrubbing and pool cleaning chores.

Of course， the vision of the computerized maid goes beyond mere automated dust busting19）. What we've been waiting for is a true robotic domestic servant capable of safely navigating a human living environment to carry out everything from cleaning the toilet to cooking pancakes.

But in order to actually move through our kitchens and interact with us， robots will need to be capable of social learning. A truly social bot will need to evaluate environmental stimuli20） with a discriminating eye. In short， a true robotic maid would need to be autonomous. Scientists from Cornell University are on the case， and are slowly creating robots that might be able to anticipate human needs. They predict that in the next few years we might see a robot maid who can do some specific tasks. So far， they've already developed a robo-maid who can open a fridge and pour you a beer. A far greater help than， say， folding laundry.

面對沒有機器人女傭的抱怨，最沒有新意的回應自然是：“嘿，伙計，去買個Roomba清潔機器人就行了。”因為雖然清潔機器人并不像喬治·杰森（編注：美國動畫片《杰森一家》中的人物）的機器人女傭羅西那樣，但現代機器人確實能完成一大堆諸如清掃地板、擦洗瓷磚以及清潔泳池這類的雜務。

當然，我們想象中的計算機化的女傭能做的可不止自動除塵。我們一直期待的是一個能夠安全穿梭于人類生活環境、包攬從打掃衛生間到做薄煎餅等所有家務的真正的家用機器傭人。

但是機器人若想能真正做到在廚房里自由行動并與我們互動，就需要具備社會學習的能力。一個真正的社交型機器人需要用有辨識力的眼睛去評估外界的刺激。簡單地說，一個真正的機器人女傭得是自主獨立的。康奈爾大學的科學家們在進行這方面的研究，他們正在慢慢開發可能會預判人類需求的機器人。他們預測在接下來的幾年里，我們可能就會看到一個能夠完成某些特定任務的機器人女傭。到目前為止，他們已經開發出了能夠打開冰箱門和給你倒杯啤酒的機器人女傭。這可比疊衣服之類的有用多了。

藥片食物

Since the 1800s， futurists have been dreaming about creating miniaturized， 100-percent synthetic21） food from chemicals， so it could be consumed in tablet or capsule22） form. Some envisioned23） it as a way to free homemakers from the drudgery24） of cooking or spare animals from slaughter， while others saw it as a way to feed the planet's growing population without overtaxing farm soil or other natural resources. A 1936 Popular Science Monthly article predicted that "modern alchemists25）" in food laboratories eventually would create food pills that would contain everything necessary for life—a feat that would render26） man forever independent of natural resources for his nourishment， and banish fear of crop failure and famine.

It's an idea that has persisted over the years in science-fiction fantasies. The problem is that unless someone figures out a way to alter the laws of physics， getting your daily nutrition from a capsule or tablet is pretty much impossible. Think of it this way： the typical human needs to ingest27） about 2，000 calories each day， and a gram28） of fat—the most efficient way to provide them—contains about nine calories. Thus， to meet your daily caloric requirement， you'd have to ingest 450 or so standard-sized capsules of fat， which would weigh roughly half a pound. And you still wouldn't be getting all the other nutrients—protein， carbohydrates， vitamins， minerals， fiber—that you need to be healthy. Besides， eating nothing but a pill for breakfast， lunch and dinner wouldn't exactly be living large. People like to eat because food tastes good. Pills generally don't.

自19世紀以來，未來主義者就一直夢想著從化學品中提取制造出微型的百分百合成食物，這樣食物就可以做成藥片或是膠囊的樣子供人食用。有人曾設想這種方法能使家庭主婦從做飯的苦差事中解脫出來，或能使動物免遭殺戮，也有人曾認為這種方法可使人類無須過度使用土地或其他自然資源就能養活這個星球上不斷增長的人口。《大眾科學月刊》1936年刊載的一篇文章預言食品實驗室里的“現代煉金術師”最終會發明出一種含有生命所需一切物質的藥片食物——一項將使人類永遠無須再依靠自然資源來獲取營養、無須再擔憂谷物歉收或饑荒的壯舉。

這樣的想法多年來一直存在于科幻小說的各種幻想里。問題是除非有人能想出辦法改變物理定律，否則從一個膠囊或藥片里獲取一整天所需的營養幾乎是不可能的。這樣試想一下，通常來說一個人每天大約需要攝入2000卡路里熱量，而脂肪作為提供熱量最有效的方法，每克約含熱量9卡路里。所以，為了滿足日常所需熱量，你得攝入450個左右的這種標準大小的脂肪膠囊，重量大約有半磅（編注：約0.227公斤）。但即使這樣你也還是沒能攝入維持健康所需的其他營養物質：蛋白質、碳水化合物、維生素、礦物質、纖維素。此外，一日三餐都只吃藥片實在不能算是奢侈的生活。人們喜歡吃是因為食物美味，但藥片通常吃起來都不怎么樣。