The optimization for the eradication of Ebola

王杰平等

Ebola virus broke out again in 2014. As a rare virus， it is notorious in Africa. Since the virus appeared in 1976， we find the patients infected by this virus continually in the world. People will be infected by this virus through direct contact with patients with body fluids， or with skin and mucous membrane contact to infection patients. This paper proposes some solutions about the eradication of Ebola from the present situation of the Ebola virus and points out the direction of the prevention and treatment of the virus.

Key words： Ebola eradication prevention treatment

For the problem of the spread of Ebola virus， we analyze the model and the law of virus transmission and improve SEIR model[1] by adding the vaccinated people. Then we get the number of four categories people in the future. After the study of the results， we obtain the result that we need at least 17 million vaccines to eradicate the Ebola virus. After that， we research the sensitivity of our model and verify it.

After the analysis of the Figure 1， we find that the epidemic situation in Sierra Leone and Liberia are similar. The outbreak time of them are later then Guineas.

According to the results by the model of the Spread of the Disease， we believe that the distribution of drugs and vaccines should follow the proportion of 14.2%， 40.5%， 45.3% and 50.4%， 22.2%， 27.4% that are

correspond to the Guinea， Liberia， Sierra Leone on the basic of the fairness. Then we receive a conclusion that people can control the spread of the Ebola virus completely within a decade when the production quantities of vaccines grow by 2346 a month. The proportion of drugs is shown in Table 1：

Considering the reality， we select three optimal routes to carry goods to the capitals of the three worst-hit countries of West African. So the capital city（Figure 2） is a location of delivery. And we get the result that it supplies the four west places which need to be served. As for the second location， we find the other places. Then we evenly selected enough points in the country， and calculate the sum of weighted distance from each place for each point. So we can get the best second location（Figure 3） of delivery.

Figure 2：Considering one location of deliver Figure 3：Considering two locations of deliver

After the analysis of the country which out broke Ebola virus in the history， we think the virus will spread through rivers[2，3，4，5] and oceans， especially with the arrival of the rainy season. So we build models for these two reasons， and we get the results that the countries most likely to be the outbreak place are Mali， Nigeria and Cameroon.

References

[1]XU Gong-xian， SEIR dynamic model of SARS epidemic and its parameter identification， JOURNAL OF NATURAL SCIENCE OF HEILONGJIANG UNIVERSRRY， August 2005.

[2]http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambia_River

[3]http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senegal_River

[4]http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_River

[5]http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint Paul River