搞清這11個問題，你就懂無人駕駛汽車了

When are these things coming？

In 2013， Nissan announced an \"ambitious goal\" of having an affordable autonomous car ready by 2020. Others who see that as overly ambitious think you're more likely to see them in serious production a few years after that—say， 2025 or 2030.

How much will they cost？

Right now， the technology alone adds $70，000 to $100，000 to the cost of a vehicle. Few people could pay that much more for a magic flying carpet， let alone a car. Automakers are wrestling1） to make it affordable， and there are projections2） that by the time autocars go into mass production， the additional cost might fall to between $3，000 and $5，000.

How do they work？

Lots of sensory equipment are fed into the vehicle's computers. Radar， lasers and cameras collect data on the distance to objects and their speed if they're moving. GPS helps， and an inertial3） navigation system in the computer uses dead reckoning4） to continuously calculate position， orientation， direction and speed of the vehicle and surrounding objects. Without getting too deep into the weeds5）： cloud-based data could be used to continually update the onboard computer， including data collected from other cars.

Can they deal with work zones， or cyclists and a kid in the street？

They're pretty good at it now， and their developers are working to make them better. Sensors on the vehicle keep track of everything in its path， and the vehicle stops for obstacles or to navigate around them.

Are autonomous cars and connected cars the same thing？

No. An autonomous car uses onboard technology to find its way around and keep from running into things. Connected cars， a concept also in active development， provide direct short-range communication between vehicles （and highway beacons） to help them coexist better. The connected-car technology could be an asset6） to autonomous cars， but it's not the steppingstone some experts once thought necessary. Connected cars will still need an active driver.

Will a car with no hands

on the wheel be safer？

Yes， experts say. Driver error causes the overwhelming7） majority of crashes—93 percent of them， according to one federal report—and there are more than 5 million crashes each year. Just getting drunk drivers from behind the wheel could reduce fatalities8） by 39%.

Does that mean there

will be zero crashes？

Nobody dares make that claim， and for good reason： too many things can go wrong on the roadway. But there could be a dramatic reduction.

Who are the winners and losers if these things come to rule the road？

The quick take9） is greater mobility for the blind， the elderly， people with disabilities and those too young to drive. Professions that figure to suffer： cab drivers， truck drivers and bus drivers. If crash rates decrease quickly by a large amount， body shops10）， insurance companies and emergency rooms will see less business.

Will there be less traffic congestion11）？

Probably yes， but maybe no. Cars moving along briskly12）—no rubbernecking13）， distracted drivers or left-lane slowpokes14）—clears up a lot of the headache right off the bat15）. There will be less stop-and-go and smoother passage through intersections， and cars will be able to travel much closer together. But two things may put more cars on the road： those who can't drive now will be on the road， and since being in a vehicle that doesn't need to be driven will be more enjoyable and productive， people may spend more time on the road.

What does this mean for parking？

Imagine getting dropped off at the door wherever you go. That could happen. The estimated 31% of land devoted to parking in urban cores could be used for something else if cars toddle16） off on their own to park in more distant satellite lots or garages that aren't in prime-time17） space.

何時上市？

2013年，日產(chǎn)公司宣布了一個“宏大目標”：將于2020年前推出大眾消費得起的無人駕駛汽車。其他人卻覺得這一目標定得太高，認為要再晚幾年（比如2025年或2030年）才更有望看到無人駕駛汽車真正投入生產(chǎn)。

造價多少？

目前，單是無人駕駛這項技術(shù)就能使一輛汽車的成本增加7～10萬美元。就算是買魔法飛毯，愿意出此巨資的消費者也寥寥無幾，更別說是一輛汽車了。汽車制造商正在竭力使無人駕駛汽車符合大眾消費水平，據(jù)預測，等到無人駕駛汽車開始批量生產(chǎn)時，這項附加成本可能會降至3000～5000美元。

如何運行？

無人駕駛汽車的計算機系統(tǒng)中裝配著大量傳感設備。雷達、激光器和攝像頭用來收集車輛與物體之間的距離信息，如果物體是移動的，則還會收集移動物體的速度信息。計算機中配置的慣性導航系統(tǒng)會利用航位推算法不斷計算車輛及其周圍物體的坐標、方位、走向和速度，全球定位系統(tǒng)也會協(xié)助完成這一任務。簡單來說，車載計算機的信息可以通過云數(shù)據(jù)（包括從其他汽車那里收集而來的數(shù)據(jù)）來不斷更新。

無人駕駛汽車能否應對道路施工區(qū)或路上的騎行者和小孩？

目前無人駕駛汽車很擅于應對這種情況，而且研發(fā)人員正在進一步提高其應對能力。無人駕駛汽車上的各種傳感器能夠密切注意其行駛道路上的所有物體，汽車遇到障礙物會停止前行，或是繞開障礙物。

無人駕駛汽車和聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車

是一回事嗎？

不是。無人駕駛汽車通過車載技術(shù)進行導航，防止與其他物體相撞。而聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車（這一概念目前也在積極研發(fā)）能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)車與車（以及與公路指示燈）之間的短程直接通信，幫助彼此之間更好地共存。聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車技術(shù)可以作為無人駕駛汽車的一項有用配置，但并不像一些專家一度認為的那樣是實現(xiàn)無人駕駛的必要技術(shù)。聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車仍然需要駕駛員的積極干預。

無人操縱方向盤的汽車

是否更安全？

是的，專家是這樣說的。絕大多數(shù)車禍都是因駕駛員的過失所致。據(jù)美國聯(lián)邦政府的一份報告顯示，有93%的車禍系駕駛員引起的，而美國每年發(fā)生的車禍就超過了500萬起。單單杜絕酒駕就能將車禍的死亡人數(shù)減少39%。

這是否意味著無人駕駛汽車

可以做到零車禍？

關(guān)于這點，沒人敢保證，原因很簡單：路上可能發(fā)生的不妙情況太多。但是車禍有可能會大幅減少。

如果無人駕駛汽車日后成為道路的主宰，誰會是贏家，誰會是輸家？

大體來說，盲人、老人、殘障人士和未到駕車年齡的孩子的出行將會更加便捷。利益可能會受損的職業(yè)群體包括出租車司機、卡車司機和公交車司機。如果交通事故迅速大量減少，那么汽車修理店、保險公司和急診室將會冷清不少。

交通擁堵會不會減少？

有可能會，但也有可能不會。汽車快速通行之后，因為沒了司機減速看熱鬧，沒了注意力不集中的司機或是喜歡在左車道（譯注：左車道是快車道）開慢車的司機，很多令人頭疼的問題也就立即迎刃而解了。汽車在交叉路口走走停停的情況將會減少，通行將會更加順暢，而且汽車的行車間距也將可以大大縮短。但是，有兩個因素可能會導致路上的汽車更多：一是那些現(xiàn)在不能開車的人將會乘車上路；二是由于搭乘無需駕駛的汽車會更舒適，而且能處理更多工作，因此人們可能會花更多的時間在路上。

無人駕駛汽車對停車來說意味著什么？

想象一下不論去往何處都能在門口下車的場景，這可能成為現(xiàn)實。目前城市中心地帶約有31%的土地專門用于停車，如果汽車能夠自己停在距離更遠的衛(wèi)星定位智能停車場或是非黃金地段的車庫，那么這些土地就可以挪作他用。

Why do they need drivers， anyway？

Truth be told， they don't. Right now you could put your dog in Carnegie Mellon University's prototype car on Interstate 95 and have the car drive the dog to Maine （provided18） you teach your dog to pump gas）. The car—and its counterparts19） at Google and abroad—already are pretty capable of handling city traffic. By the time they come into mass production they will be better at negotiating urban streets. But it figures to be a while—maybe a generation20）—before people are comfortable letting these cars loose without someone near the controls.

為什么無人駕駛汽車還是需要司機？

說實話，無人駕駛汽車并不需要司機?，F(xiàn)在你就可以在95號州際公路上把你的愛犬放進卡耐基梅隆大學研制的無人駕駛原型車里，并讓這輛汽車將它載到緬因州（只要你教會愛犬給車加油）。這輛車（以及谷歌公司和國外研制的同類汽車）已經(jīng)能很好地應對城市交通路況。等到進入大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)階段時，無人駕駛汽車在城市道路上行駛起來將會更加游刃有余。但預計這一天的到來還需一段時間，也許還要等二三十年，直到人們放心讓這些車擺脫人工操縱自由行駛。

1.wrestle [?resl] vi. 試圖解決；絞盡腦汁處理

2.projection [pr??d?ek?n] n. 預計；預測；估計

3.inertial [??n???l] adj. 慣性的

4.dead reckoning： 航位推算，指在知道當前時刻位置的條件下，通過測量移動的距離和方位，推算下一時刻位置的方法。

5.deep into the weeds： 涉及細節(jié)的

6.asset [??set] n. 有用的人或物

7.overwhelming [???v??welm??] adj. （數(shù)量）巨大的，壓倒性的

8.fatality [f??t?l?ti] n. （事故或暴力導致的）死亡

9.take [te?k] n. 態(tài)度；理解；看法

10.body shop： 車身修理廠

11.congestion [k?n?d?est??n] n. 交通堵塞

12.briskly [?br?skli] adv. 輕快地

13.rubbernecking

[?r?b?nek??] n. 司機在有事故發(fā)生時放慢車速好奇觀看的現(xiàn)象

14.slowpoke [?sl??p??k] n. 動作遲緩的人

15.right off the bat： 立刻，馬上

16.toddle [?t?dl] vi. 離開

17.prime-time： 原指“（廣播與電視的）黃金時間”，這里與space連用表示“黃金地段”。

18.provided [pr??va?d?d] conj. 如果；假如；只要

19.counterpart [?ka?nt?pɑ?t] n. （與不同地方或組織的人或物）作用相同者，相對應者

20.generation [?d?en??re??n] n. 一代，一輩（通常指20～30年）