Deploying a THAAD System in the ROK: Bringing Back New Cold War Situation in Northeast Asia?

By Li Nan: American Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences

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Deploying a THAAD System in the ROK: Bringing Back New Cold War Situation in Northeast Asia?

By Li Nan: American Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences

On July 8, 2016, the military authorities of the United States (U.S.) and the Republic of Korean (South Korea or ROK) issued a joint statement, and decided to deploy in South Korea a THAAD anti-missile system, and announced that the system will be officially put into operation by the end of 2017. In the long run, the biggest negative effect of the THAAD system deployed in South Korea may possibly bring the situation in Northeast Asia into a new Cold War pattern.

A debate on THAAD in the ROK has already begun

The current U.S. missile defense program is divided into two categories, high altitude defense and low altitude defense, the THAAD system is a part of high altitude defense, which is a terminal high altitude area defense system in full. The goal of the THAAD system is to effectively intercept a forthcoming short- or medium-range missile at the last flying phase, and to use collision technology to carry out the kinetic energy interception. Therefore, it is also known as an enhanced version of the U.S. global anti-missile system..

Regarding deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, as early as 2012 some reports began emerging, but the South Korean Defense Ministry had constantly denied. Prior to this new developments, South Korea was committed to development of South Korea's area missile defense system (KAMD), later, the South Korean government came to a conclusion that the KAMD system takes too long to complete, and began to search for an alternative solution. Because of worrying about the opposition of neighboring countries, South Korea for a long time, had been taking vague and ambiguous attitude to deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, thus, conflicting statements were often issued by American and South Korean officials on public occasions, which caused greater suspicion to outsiders. After a period of negotiations, South Korean Defense Ministry stated publicly not to oppose deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, then around this topic, American and South Korean political, military and academic circles started a heated debate. In early 2016, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted a nuclear test and launched a satellite, which became the final turning point to decide deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea. Only a few hours after the DPRK's satellite launch, the United States and South Korea announced the "formal negotiations" on deployment of the THAAD system has begun. In late March, U.S. Defense Secretary Carter said publicly Seoul and Washington have agreed in principle it is necessary to deploy the THAAD system in South Korea, and has begun close consultations on the deployment plans details. Thus, deployment of the THAAD system is imminent and inevitable in South Korea,

South Korea is firmly tied to the U.S. war chariot

As is known to all, the cornerstone of the ROK-U.S. alliance is the military cooperation between the United States and South Korea. During the cold war period, the United States of America included the ROK-U.S Mutual Defense Treaty in its strategy of containment of the former Soviet Union's global expansion. After the Korean War just ended, the U.S. National Security Council in the report on the U.S. Goal and Action Agenda on the Korean Peninsula mentioned the U.S. overall goal of the post-war Korean Peninsula, namely the U.S. long-term goal is to achieve economic self-sufficiency, Peninsula political freedom and independence, a representative democratic government, a unified state friendly to the United States on the Korean Peninsula ... The United States will ensure adequate military power on the Korean Peninsula to maintain security within the Peninsula and to avoid a major power from attacking it. To this end, the United States undertakes the military obligations from the perspective of the ROK strategic decision-making, actions control, military training and weapons supply and others.

After the end of the cold war, the United States in Northeast Asia is still acting in accordance with the cold war thinking. In the U.S. view, the threat to security of Northeast Asia is still there. This threat is mainly resulted from the U.S. threat assessment on the DPRK military strength, and consideration of the influence of the surrounding big countries. Therefore, on the one hand, to prevent the DPRK's attack and military threat is still the main target of the ROK-U.S. alliance; on the other hand, the United States needs to maintain its influence over the Korean Peninsula, so as to maintain its dominant position in Northeast Asia, and fend off major neighboring countries effectively.

In the Peninsula crisis after the Korean War, the ROK-U.S. alliance has been strengthened to a considerable extent. Since the Obama Administration, U.S. policy on the Korean Peninsula is to maintain military deterrence to the DPRK, to consolidate the U.S.- ROK alliance, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and intend to associate with China and Russia to jointly put pressure on the DPRK. Since the third nuclear test by the DPRK in 2013, the United States and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula conducted several large-scale joint military drills, having demonstrated sophisticated and high-tech weapons. In May 2013 Park Geun-hye visited the United States. The Joint Declaration on 60thanniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance confirmed the ROK-U.S. alliance the core axis of peace and stability for the Asia-Pacific region. On December 29, 2014, the three parties signed the "the United States, South Korean and Japan Intelligence Exchange Agreement on Nuclear and Missile Threat from North Korea. In fact, one of the important goals of the U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy is to respond to the growing strength of China. Facing the tense developments in the South China Sea and East China Sea, the United States needs to consolidate the close relations with its allies, and to jointly respond to challenges. Therefore, regarding deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, the United States, at the cost of deteriorating the Sino-U.S. relations and Russia-American relations, has achieved a closer military cooperation with South Korea and Japan, thus, South Korea is firmly tied to the U.S. war chariot.

Northeast Asia Seems Entering Eventful Era in Advance

In summary, deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea has a profound impact on the future trend of the situation developments on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.

and greatly enhancing the possibility of a conflict on the Peninsula. At present, the Park Geun-hye government has, during its tenure, sought to resolve the DPRK nuclear and missile issues. After the DPRK conducted the fourth nuclear test, South Korea resumed broadcasting at 38th parallel line, comprehensively interrupted operations inside the Kaesong industrial park of the DPRK. Not only that, Park Geun-hye repeatedly mentioned the DPRK collapse in her congress speech, so the North-South tensions intensified. In view of the South Korean government, the DPRK's nuclear and missile technology continue to improve, its threats are imminent, therefore, South Korea needs to resolve them as soon as possible. The decision to deploy the THAAD system in South Korea has reflected an intention that South Korea and the United States are determined to resolve the DPRK threat with their own efforts at the expense of relationship with neighboring countries. For a long time, the DPRK has been claiming that the USFK is the fundamental factor to undermine the Peninsula two sides unification, and exacerbate tensions on the Peninsula. The DPRK is strongly opposed to the U.S. deployment of any new weapon on the Peninsula, including the THAAD system. With the accelerated pace of deployment of the THAAD system, the DPRK will be responding more actively, hence, an arms race maybe inevitable. More importantly, the North-South relations will become more difficult to improve, the risk of a crisis or even a conflict will continue to increase.

Regarding the DPRK-U.S. relationship, since 2013, the United States constantly maintains a tough stance toward the DPRK, which is based on the consideration of its relationship with the Asia-Pacific allies, and is also a reflection of American domestic politics. The deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea shows American intention to continue to put pressure on the DPRK, if the DPRK does not make major concessions, the hostile relations between the DPRK and the United States will continue for a very long period of time. Regarding the relationship between China and South Korea, the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea poses a serious threat to China’s security, the relationship between China and South Korea would be seriously impacted, the mutual trust between the two countries will be obviously weakened. In fact, the two countries have been aware of the damage to each other by the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea. The Chinese government has made clear oppositions on many occasions, while the debate emerged much earlier in the South Korean society on this action that may bring negative impact on the relationship between China and South Korea. Some South Korean scholars believe that once Russia and the United States or China and the United States meet in a conflict, South Korea would become the outpost for them to launch attack or counter attack. South Korean East Asian daily also believes that the purpose of the United States is obvious, its first target is China, and if South Korea makes official announcement, which will stimulate the extremely sensitive Chinese, and will bring no minor storm to China-ROK diplomatic relations. Therefore, once the THAAD system is deployed in South Korea, China and South Korea will encounter serious setbacks in developing strategic cooperative partnership. On the ROK-U.S. alliance, the deployment of THAAD system in South Korea will become an important link of the U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy. Some public opinions argue that the U.S. deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea is to fill in the missile defense gap from Alaska to Southeast Asia in the Asia-Pacific region, thus, further consolidating the U.S. military forces presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Not only that, for a long time, the United States has been struggling to eliminate the gap between South Korea and Japan, the trilateral alliance between South Korea, the United States and Japan is not successfully formed so far. With the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea, the United States can pull South Korea and Japan together, form the trilateral strategic alliance on the military security with the United States in the dominant position. And in the meantime, South Korea will get further deepened into the U.S. strategic system, while its military and political independence will be further weakened.

As far as Sino-U.S. relations is concerned, although the United States emphasized the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea is to respond to DPRK’s "provocation", yet the THAAD system in South Korea constitutes a serious threat to the security of China, which will undoubtedly further aggravate the strategic mutual distrust between China and the United States, and has become another "wound" in the Sino-U.S. relations. As far as Russian-American relations goes, Russia believes that the THAAD system with AN/TPY-2 X band radar configuration can explore the dynamic situation of the Russian Far East inside South Korea, so the Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly said that this will bring serious influence to the region's strategic stability and international security. Thus, the vulnerable delicate relationship between Russia and the United States will also become further deteriorated because of the THAAD system in South Korea. Regarding the Sino-Russian relations, China and Russia have taken clear-cut attitude in opposition to the THAAD system in South Korea. In the face of equilibrium broken in the Northeast Asian region, China and Russia cannot but further strengthen ties and strategic communication to cope with the forthcoming developments.

In summary, South Korea and the United States have decided to deploy the THAAD system in South Korea, which will change the Northeast Asian geopolitical structure framework, and will drive countries in the region to adjust their diplomatic strategies. Once holding dialogue is replaced by putting pressure, cooperation by competition, trust by suspicion, then, a new cold war situation in Northeast Asia pattern will emerge. Therefore, the Northeast Asia has entered an eventful era in advance.