讓人擔心的非洲青年潮

Vicky

The worrying African youth boom

What worries Bill Gates most？ Thebooming population of Africa looms over hisfoundation's latest global survey. By the end ofthis century there will be 4 billion more peopleon Earth-and 3 billion of these extra souls willbe born in Africa. The challenge，he says，is that“Africa must almost quadruple its agriculturalproductivity to feed itself. That's very daunting. '

The philanthropist is torn between sendingout a message of hope and a message of fearwhen I meet him at his foundation's spaciouscampus in the heart of his hometown，Seattle.

He is reaching for what works best torevive the West's faltering conscience in theface of“Americafirst”nationalismand rising pull-up-the-drawbridge populismin Europe. The spirit of generosity is underassault as government aid budgets come underconstant sniper fire from right-wing politiciansand their media.

Half of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundationspending goes to Africa. The funds put intothe foundation by themselves and fellow philanthropist Warren Buffett now amount tomore than than $50bn. Until last year Gates，theMicrosoft founder，was the world's richest man. He has now been overtaken by Amazon's JeffBezos.

The foundation's report bursts withremarkable data-too few people know aboutthe galloping progress of humankind. Take India，where only 18 years ago almost one in fivechildren were not enrolled in primary school-now，97% attend classes. Look at the indicatorson the report's global scorecard for the UNssustainable development goals for 2030，andmost things are improving almost everywhere. But there is a marked variation in the futuretrajectory： progress depends on the level offuture investment.

Today，the West takes some persuadingthat things are getting better，especially inEurope where countries like Britain havesuffered a decade of falling real living standardsand eye-watering austerity. The upbeat messageof Gates-as well as those in his late friendHans Rosling's book Factfulness，and StevenPinker's Enlightenment Now-telling us most ofthe world is on an unprecedented upswing，jarswith our reality. Yet it is so： the world has neverseen such a rapid rise in prosperity among mostof the poor.

Eager to encourage Western countriesto keep giving aid，Gates is well aware thatBritain-as elsewhere-suffers frequent politicalattacks on its aid budget. The UK，Sweden andNorway are among the few reaching the UNaid spending target of 0. 7% of gross nationalincome，and all feel the cold blast of an anti-foreigner political grudge. “If you are saving livesfor a very small amount of money，people shouldfeel good about that，" Gates says emphatically，protesting at current cynicism about internationalaid organisations. Look what can be done，hekeeps saying，pointing as an example to thebrilliant education system in Vietnam，a poorcountry whose results outstrip far richer ones.

If Britain needs encouragement，he says，“the data about the impact has been amazing. The UK has been very generous to the vaccinefund，for two vaccins—one for pneumonia，one for diarrhoea. " These sicknesses are nowpreventable“at extremely low cost to all thechildren of the world. The UK led that effort andsaved over 10 million lives". Do people acrossthe UK know that？ He admits a failure to spreadthe good news. “We' re being challenged toexplain. " Everyone should know this message ofhope. “We're talking about uplifting the humancondition in a fairly dramatic way. "

But if hope doesn't beat the new nativisminfecting the Western world，then fear is Gates ammunition of last resort. lgnore Africa at yourperil. “The stability of Africa makes a huge difference to the entire world. " Here come thethreats：“A pandemic like Ebola can spread veryfast，" he warns，and many others spread evenfaster if there are no local health services tocontain them.

Migration is the other threat to touchEurope's politics. Syria was a small country，he reminds us，yet its civil war exodus has“challenged the asylum system". But watch outbecause“Africa is another order of magnitude' . The huge African youth boom is a strong themein the report，where in a world of ageing and shrinking populations，Africa's demographicbulge could be an asset or a threat. So itwould be wise“to make their lives attractive"not just out of“pure human caring". Invest inAfrica's young，their human capital，health andeducation，support more productive agriculture，protect subsistence farmers against climatechange and see how self-interest blends withgood works.

Africa，he always stresses，is not onecountry. Of its 54 nations，many are leapingahead，Ghana，Botswana and Rwandaamong them. Those causing concern are theDemocratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.

On his recent visit he warnedNigerians against the countrysgrowing inequality，where oilwealth for a few is leavingmillions behind. The foundationhas spent $1bn so far on Nigeria. He says，“Their health system isworse than poorer countries，theiragricultural advice largely brokendown. " Government resourcesare low because“their level oftaxation is one of the lowest inthe world".

比爾·蓋茨最擔心的是什么？在他的基金會最新的全球調查中，非洲人口的迅速增長成為一個隱憂。到本世紀末，地球上的人口將增加40億，其中30億人將在非洲出生。他表示，挑戰在于“非洲必須將農業產能提高近四倍，才能養活自己。這是非常艱巨的?！?/p>

當我在他的基金會，位于他家鄉西雅圖中心地帶的寬敞校園里見到這位慈善家時，他既表達了希望，又表達了恐懼。

面對“美國優先”的民族主義和歐洲日益高漲的民粹主義，他正在尋找最有效的方法，以重振西方搖搖欲墜的良知。由于政府援助預算不斷受到右翼政客和其媒體的冷嘲熱諷，慷慨的精神受到了攻擊。

比爾及梅林達·蓋茨基金會一半的開支都花在了非洲。這個基金會現有資金已經超過500億美元了，主要來自蓋茨夫婦和同伴慈善家沃倫·巴菲特。直到去年，微軟創始人蓋茨還是世界首富。如今，他已被亞馬遜的杰夫·貝索斯超越。

該基金會的報告充滿驚人的數據一很少有人知道人類的飛速進步。以印度為例，僅在18年前，該國近五分之一的孩子沒有小學上，而現在97%的孩子上了小學。看看報告中聯合國2030年可持續發展目標的全球記分卡上的指標，幾乎所有地方的情況都在改善。但未來的軌跡有一個明顯的變化：進展取決于未來的投資水平。

如今，西方國家需要說服一些人相信情況正在好轉，尤其在歐洲像英國這樣的國家，10年來實際生活水平不斷下降和緊縮令人難以忍受。蓋茨的樂觀信息一以及他已故的朋友漢斯·羅斯林的《事實》一書和史蒂芬·平克的《當下的啟蒙》一告訴我們，世界上大部分地區正處于前所未有的繁榮時期，與我們的現實不符。但事實的確如此：從未見過大多數窮人的財富增長得如此迅速。

蓋茨急于鼓勵西方國家繼續提供援助。他很清楚，英國和其他國家一樣，在援助預算上經常遭受政治攻擊。英國、瑞典和挪威是少數幾個實現了占國民總收入0. 7%的聯合國援助支出目標的國家，它們都感受到了反外國人政治仇恨的寒流。蓋茨強調說：“如果你是在用非常少的錢拯救生命，人們應該對此感到高興。”他抗議目前對國際援助組織的冷嘲熱諷?？纯茨茏鲂┦裁?，他一直這樣說，并以越南優秀的教育體系為例。越南是一個貧窮的國家，其教育成果卻超過了比它富裕得多的國家。

如果英國需要鼓勵，他說，“關于影響的數據是驚人的。英國非?？犊叵蛞呙缁鹛峁┝藘煞N疫苗，一種用于肺炎，另一種用于腹瀉?！爆F在這些疾病對于全世界的孩子來說都是可以預防的，而且代價很低。英國在這一件事上起了主要作用，拯球了1000多萬條生命。全英國的人都知道嗎？他承認這一好消息并沒有成功傳播?！拔覀冋媾R解釋的挑戰?！泵總€人都應該知道這個充滿希望的信息?！拔覀冋f的是以一種相當戲劇性的方式改善人類的狀況。”

但是，如果（慈善的）希望不能擊敗影響西方世界的新本土主義，那么恐懼就是蓋茨最后的武器。忽視非洲，后果自負。“非洲的穩定會讓整個世界變得不一樣。他警告說，威脅來了：“像埃博拉這樣的流行疾病傳播得非?？臁！比绻麤]有當地的醫療服務機構控制，其他許多疾病傳播的速度甚至更快。

移民是影響歐洲政治的另一個威脅。他提醒我們，敘利亞是一個小國，但內戰期間的大批難民“挑戰了庇護制度”。但要小心，因為“非洲是另一個大威脅”。在人口老齡化和人口萎縮的世界里，非洲的人口膨脹可能是一種資產，也可能是一種威脅。因此，明智的做法是“讓他們的生活更有吸引力”，而不僅僅是“純粹的人文關懷”。投資于非洲的年輕人，他們的人力資本，健康和教育，支持更多產的農業，保護自給自足的農民免受氣候變化的影響，看看自身利益如何與良好的工作相結合。

他總是強調，非洲不是一個國家。在它的54個國家中，許多國家正在躍躍欲試，其中包括加納、博茨瓦納和盧旺達。引起關注的是剛果民主共和國和尼日利亞。在他最近的訪問中，他警告尼日利亞人注意該國日益加劇的不平等。在那里，少數人的石油財富正將數百萬人拋拋在身后。該基金會迄今已在尼日利亞投入10億美元。他表示：“他們的醫療體系比貧窮國家更糟糕，他們的農業建議在很大程度上遭到了破壞。政府資源低是因為“他們的稅收水平是全球最低之一”。