基于未確知測度理論的改進公路風險評估模型

吳智偉　何園園

摘 要：基于未確知測度理論，建立改進的公路風險評估模型。首先，運用相關性分析確定影響公路風險的主要指標，并以此建立評價指標體系和評價標準;然后根據(jù)實測數(shù)據(jù)建立各影響因素的未確知測度函數(shù)，并利用信息熵理論計算各影響因素的指標權重，依照置信度識別準則判定等級;最后，得出公路風險的評價結果。該評價方法可以解決公路風險評價中的因素不確定性問題，并可解決原模型中指標極值的影響。運用本方法對青島市某條公路進行公路風險評估，并與原方法進行比較，結果表明，該方法科學合理，有一定的實際應用價值。

關鍵詞：未確知測度;交通工程;公路風險評估;相關性分析;信息熵

Abstract： Based on the unascertained measure theory， an improved highway risk assessment model is established. First， we use the correlation analysis to determine the main indicators that affect the highway risk， and establish the evaluation index system and evaluation criteria， and then establish the unascertained measure function of the influencing factors according to the measured data， and use the information entropy theory to calculate the index weight of the influencing factors and determine the grade according to the confidence recognition criteria; finally， the evaluation results of the highway risk are obtained. The evaluation method can solve the problem of uncertainty in highway risk assessment and solve the influence of extreme value in the original model. This method is used to evaluate the risk of a highway in Qingdao and compares it with the original method. The result shows that the method is scientific and reasonable and has some practical application value.

Key words：Unascertained measure; traffic engineering; highway risk assessment; correlation analysis; information entropy