Abrogation of the INF Treaty:A Serious Impact on Global Peace and Stability

Abrogation of the INF Treaty:A Serious Impact on Global Peace and Stability

By Yao Yunzhu

Senior Adviser of China Academy of Military Sciences

The full name of the INF treaty is a Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics On the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty in short), an arms control treaty signed in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Treaty clearly stipulates that the two signatories shall have in three years after the entry into force of the treaty their land-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles within the range of 500km to 5500km together with their launch vehicles and support facilities completely eliminated. Later, the United States destroyed the "Pershing IA" short-range missiles, "Pershing II" medium-range missiles and land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles; while the Soviet Union destroyed its SS-12 and SS-23 short-range missiles and SS-20, SS-4 and SS-5 medium-range missiles. Three years after the signing of the INF Treaty, 2692 pieces of medium- and short-range missiles were destroyed by the United States and the Soviet Union, of which 1846 pieces are owned by the Soviet Union and 846 pieces by the United States. The INF Treaty eased the tense confrontation between the two major military groups in Europe, reduced the nuclear arms race pressure, lowered the risk of nuclear conflict, hence, it is hailed as a milestone nuclear disarmament treaty in the Cold War. But such an important treaty was in the end abandoned in 2019 by the United States. In response, Russia also announced its suspension of performing the treaty obligations.

Why the United States withdraws from the INF Treaty

The claim made by the Trump Administration to decide withdrawal from the INF Treaty is that Russia had violated the relevant provisions of the treaty, such as having tested the land-based cruise missile banned by the Treaty. But the four deep-rooted reasons are mainly as follows. Firstly, the change of geostrategic situation makes China become the most important strategic competitor in the eyes of the United States, the United States wants to get rid of the constraints of traditional disarmament treaties and has more military options in the global pattern of major powers competition. Secondly, through R & D and deployment of land-based short- and medium-range strike capabilities, the United States responded to strategic security concerns of the newly joined NATO members over Russia and required the U.S. traditional Western European allies to increase defense input, while forced the Asia-Pacific allies more closely "integrate" into the U.S. forward deployment, thus, forming strong military containment against the potential adversaries. Thirdly, to strengthen the medium- and short-range strike capability advantages. Land based capability will enlarge the U.S. Sea-Air system advantages, which can not only suppress the potential rivals actions of "denial / anti-intervention", but can also enhance attack ability to hit strategic targets. Compared with that 30 years ago, land-based systems deployed in the theater are cheaper than the Sea-Air platform systems, the response speed is faster and the attack effect is also improved. Fourthly, as the Trump Administration adopts the diplomatic and security decisions, it often ignores the reaction of the international community and respect for the current international order, sticks to its old way of doing things, and shows obvious tendency of unilateralism.

The abrogation of the INF Treaty shows multiple negative impacts on China's security and global strategic stability

First of all, the international nuclear disarmament mechanisms continue collapsing, which will undermine global strategic stability. Along with the end of the INF Treaty, other nuclear arms control and disarmament treaties between the United States and Russia are also in danger of abolition. Recently, it is reported that the United States intends to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. The treaty is signed in Helsinki, Finland in 1992, goes effective as of 1 January 2002, and there are now 34 signatory countries to the Treaty, which stipulates that the signatory countries can conduct unarmed air reconnaissance to inspect the performance of the arms control treaties. The main purpose of the Open Skies Treaty is to increase mutual trust, if the United States retreats, the strategic mutual trust between the United States and Russia, and between Europe and Russia will be further reduced. Secondly, the New START Treaty will expire in February 2021, and if the United States and Russia fail to reach an agreement on the extension of the Treaty, which will automatically lapse. The Treaty provides that both the United States and Russia shall limit to 700 units their deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers that can carry nuclear weapons, limit to 1550 nuclear warheads (1 nuclear warhead/bomber) that are carried by the above ICBM, SLBM and heavy bombers. This Treaty is the continuation of a series of nuclear disarmament treaties reached by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, if it fails to be extended, the subtraction process of the nuclear arsenal of the two countries established during the Cold War will no longer exist. In addition, it is necessary to be very concerned about whether the United States will continue to "retreat ", and even go as far as to abandon the obligations of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Second, those nuclear disarmament treaties are abolished one after another, which imposes a serious impact on the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. The system is originally designed to hopefully reach balanced rights and obligations between nuclear weapon states and non- nuclear weapon states; nuclear weapon states are committed to nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament until the total elimination of nuclear weapons; non-nuclear weapon states are committed to not to developing and possessing nuclear weapons; all countries have the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. As nuclear weapon states are stepping back instead of moving forward concerning nuclear disarmament, they will, to a great extent, lose the importance and legitimacy to ask the non-nuclear weapon states to remain non-nuclear. Once the non-nuclear weapon states do not keep their commitments any more, the world will enter into the period of rapid proliferation of nuclear weapons. The probability of using nuclear weapons intentionally or accidentally will be greatly increased, and China’s survival and development environment is bound to deteriorate significantly.

The abrogation of the INF Treaty relaxes restrictions for both the United States and Russia to develop mid-range and short-range missiles, will more stimulate non-nuclear weapon states to pursue this capability, the missile arms race will get more severe, and China will face the pressure of an arms race. On the other hand, the United States has repeatedly stated that China is one of the reasons for its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, and demanded China to participate in the new multilateral disarmament negotiations. The number and capability of China's missiles have also become a hot topic in the international defense circle. Senior officials in the United States makes clear statements that without China's participation, it is meaningless to continuously extend the New START Treaty. On July 7, 2017, the UN General Assembly adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition Of Nuclear Weapons by 122 votes, which requires all countries in the world to stop all nuclear weapons-related R & D, manufacturing, production and even possessing. Although the UN Security Council 5 permanent members including the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France neither participated in the negotiations nor signed the treaty, however this UN Treaty actually declares nuclear weapons "Illegal". In the face of non-nuclear weapon states strong demand, China also face greater nuclear disarmament pressure.

Third, the increasing land-based medium-range strike capability in the Asia-Pacific region will affect China's security environment. The proliferation of land-based medium-range missiles around China may be shown in two forms: one is the U.S.-developed and –deployed land-based missile systems targeted at China in its allies, while the other is the systems developed and deployed by the Asia-Pacific countries themselves. If the United States acquiesces and encourages its allies and partner countries to develop land-based cruise and ballistic missiles, or sell similar missiles to these allies and partners, which will also seriously deteriorate China’s surrounding environment.

Facing the retrogression of global arms control and disarmament process and with deterioration of the surrounding security environment, China should on the basis of the principle of building a "community with a shared future for mankind", think about the new trends and new countermeasures in the field of arms control and disarmament, and put forward "China's thinking" and "China's approach" for safeguarding common interests of mankind, global strategic stability and maintaining peace and development.