Increasing orders but slim profits room,uncertainties wait to be resolved

According to data released by the General Adminis—tration of Customs on July 13, China’s textile and apparel exports maintained steady growth in the first half of the year, up 3.3 percent and 11.9 percent respectively in RMB and USD terms from the same period last year, and also maintained rapid growth compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles, affected by the decline in mask exports, showed a decline compared with the same period last year, while apparel grew rapidly, driven by the pick—up in external demand.

The total value of imports and exports of national trade in goods is calculated in RMB:

From January to June 2021, the total value of im—ports and exports in goods trade was 18.07 trillion yuan,up 27.1 percent over the same period last year (the same below) and 23.18 percent over the same period in 2019.Exports were 9.85 trillion yuan, up 28.1 percent year—on—year and 23.90 percent over the same period in 2019,imports were 8.22 trillion yuan, up 25.9 percent year—on—year, and 22.32 percent over the same period in 2019.

In June, the import and export of foreign trade reached 3.29 trillion yuan, up 22 percent year—on—year,up 5 percent month—on—month and up 28.52 percent over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was 1.81 trillion yuan, up 20.2 percent year—on—year, up 5.6 percent month—on—month and up 24.83 percent over the same period in 2019. The import was 1.48 trillion yuan, up 24.2 percent year—on—year, down 4.2 percent month—on—month and up 33.33 percent over the same period in 2019.

The total value of imports and exports of national trade in goods is calculated in USD:

From January to June 2021, the total value of im—ports and exports in goods amounted to USD 2,785.2 trillion, up 37.4 percent year—on—year and 28.88 percent over the same period in 2019. Exports amounted to USD 1,518.36 billion, up 38.6 percent year—on—year and 29.65 percent over the same period in 2019. Imports amounted to USD 1,266.84 billion, up 36 percent year—on—year and 27.96 percent over the same period in 2019.

In June, the import and export of foreign trade reached USD 511.31 billion, up 34.2 percent year—on—year, up 6 percent month—on—month and up 36.46 percent over the same period of 2019. Among them, the export was USD 281.42 billion, up 32.2 percent year—on—year, up 6.7 percent month—on—month, and up 32.22 percent over the same period in 2019. The import was USD 229.89 billion, up 36.7 percent year—on—year, up 5.3 percent month—on—month, and up 42.03 percent over the same period in 2019.

Textile and apparel exports are calculated in RMB:

From January to June 2021, textile and apparel ex—ports totaled 908.87 billion yuan, an increase of 3.27 per—cent year—on—year, of which textile exports were 444.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.63 percent, and apparel exports were 464.02 billion yuan, an increase of 29.25 percent.

In June, textile and apparel exports were 178.14 bil—lion yuan, down 13.38 percent, and up 12.65 percent month—on—month, of which textile exports were 80.62 billion yuan, down 29.55 percent, up 2.27 percent month—on—month, and apparel exports were 97.52 billion yuan,up 6.91 percent, and 22.96 percent month—on—month.

Textile and apparel exports are calculated in USD:

From January to June 2021, textile and apparel ex—ports totaled USD 140.086 billion, an increase of 11.90 percent, an increase of 12.76 percent over the same pe—riod in 2019, of which textile exports were USD 68.558 billion, down 7.48 percent, an increase of 16.95 percent over the same period in 2019, and apparel exports were USD 71.528 billion, an increase of 40.02 percent, an in—crease of 9.02 percent over the same period in 2019.

In June, textile and apparel exports were USD 27.66 billion, down 4.71 percent, up 13.75 percent month—on—month, and 12.24 percent higher than the same period in 2019. Among them, textile exports were USD 12.515 billion, down 22.54 percent, up 3.23 percent month—on—month, and 21.40 percent higher than the same period in 2019, and apparel exports were USD 15.148 billion, an increase of 17.67 percent, a month—on—month increase of 24.20 percent, and an increase of 5.66 percent over the same period in 2019.

According to the data, the export of textile and garment showed a good and healthy growth trend on the whole, the export of traditional bulk commodities achieved double growth (compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019). Enterprises also generally reflect sufficient orders in hand with higher factory op—erating rate.

However, corporate profits have been squeezed hard by RMB fluctuations, soaring sea freight and rapidly soaring import prices for raw materials and semi—finished goods.Sea freight get doubled growth compared with last year,resulting in a substantial increase in enterprise transporta—tion costs. By the end of July, rising freight rates and port congestion had not been fully alleviated, becoming the biggest uncertainties affecting exports in the second half of the year. The prices of upstream raw materials caused by global inflation have not been transmitted to the sales prices of downstream finished products. In the first half of this year, the export prices of knitting garments decreased slightly by 0.8% compared with the same period last year.Excluding sudden uncertainties, there is a high probability that exports will achieve small growth in the whole year.Looking forward to the second half of the year, the sus—tained growth of the world economy and China's economy will provide a driving force for exports.

In the second half of the year, the global pandemic still remain severe, but it is expected to further ease as vaccination coverage continues to expand, and consump—tion continues to recover, leading to a pick—up in demand in key markets and a growth in global trade. In addition,there are opportunities. It is reported that the pandemic situation in Vietnam is serious again recently, and the government has taken quarantine measures, which leads to the decrease of local production capacity, and some orders are returned to China to be undertaken by Chinese.It is expected that the textile and garment export in the second half of the year will still maintain a stable and good development trend, and there is a large probability of exceeding the expected performance.