New Changes in the Security Environment of China’s Neighborhood and Strategic Choices of China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy

The neighborhood is where China survives and thrives as well as the foundation of its development and prosperity. Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed during the Central Conference on Work Relating to Neighborhood Diplomacy convened in October 2013 that “China’s neighborhood is of critical strategic significance in terms of geographical location， natural environment as well as mutual relations.” As an important component of the major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics， neighborhood diplomacy has been placed in an important position within China’s diplomatic strategies. At present， the extraordinarily complex and ever-changing neighborhood environment poses new challenges to China’s diplomacy with its neighbors. In the meantime， changes in the region offer new opportunities and conditions for China to manage and shape its neighborhood environment.

Uncertainties Further Complicate the Security Environment in China’s Neighborhood

Against the backdrop of a turbulent international situation and with the return of Donald Trump to the White House， the major-country relations in China’s neighborhood face growing uncertainties. Now and in the years to come， China’s neighborhood diplomacy will face an increasingly complex security environment.

Firstly， major-country relations face greater uncertainties. As Donald Trump returned to the White House， he will add more uncertainties to China-US relations in the next few years. His protectionist trade policies will cause huge impact upon China-US trade relations. Trump’s move to promote the manufacturing reshoring and contain China’s position in global supply chains will escalate the tension between China and the United States in economy and trade， and further increase instability in global trade system and regional trade landscape. Trump may adopt a tough stance on China in the field of military security， including taking provocative actions in dealing with the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan question， which will exert pressure on China-US relations and affect the security and stability in China’s neighborhood. The frequently shifting policies adopted by Trump will make the policy environment for China-US relations lack consistency and predictability.

Secondly， with the US efforts to build “mini-multilateral mechanisms” in China’s neighborhood， the trend of forging blocs by China’s neighboring countries is ever more evident. First， the bond among the US-led allies is growing stronger. With higher-level of interoperability of troops between the United States and countries such as Japan， South Korea and Australia， the alliance is enjoying a higher-level of institutionalization and stability. Second， there is a clearer boundary between the US-led alliance and the countries it targets， leading to a greater degree of rivalry. Third， other countries are facing mounting pressure to take sides in major power competition. The Ukraine crisis has accelerated the process of polarization in the world. The United States has urged China’s neighboring countries to clarify their stances on a series of issues， such as whether to sanction Russia， whether to support the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and whether to engage in the “de-risking” of the supply chains and value chains. Hence China’s neighboring countries are facing enormous pressure.

Thirdly， security factors continue to increase interference in economic cooperation. More issues in the regional agenda are determined by security factors. The mindset of zero-sum rivalry in the security field is placing stronger impacts on regional affairs. The United States has promoted the securitization of economic issues and weaponized the economic dependence of other countries upon the US， leading to the rampant spread of “pan-securitization”. Since 2017， the United States has emphasized that “economic security is national security”， opening the door to “pan-securitization” on economic issues. The Biden administration emphasized that the US must “ensure strategic competitors [cannot] exploit American and allied technologies to undermine American and allied security”. Many tech-related problems have been endowed with strong security colors， resulting in the widespread “pan-securitization”. “Pan-securitization” has increased the impact of security logic on economic cooperation， worsened the environment for international cooperation and undermined the trust of countries in the world in the international economic cooperation network.

Finally， the direction of hotspot issues in China’s neighborhood is mainly steered by changes in major-country relations and the restructuring of relations among neighboring countries， making it harder to control. China’s neighborhood is facing multiple hard-to-resolve hotspot issues， including the South China Sea issue， the China-India boundary question and the DPRK nuclear issue， which involve a considerable number of neighboring countries. These issues， often involving disputes over territorial and maritime sovereignty and rights and interests， are easily symbolized during the outbreak of conflicts. As the United States increases its engagement in Asia-Pacific affairs， adopts a more biased stance on hotpot issues in China’s neighborhood and even instigates some of China’s neighboring countries to take provocative actions， making it even more difficult to effectively resolve the hotspot issues in China’s neighborhood and adding more uncertainties to the evolution of such issues. The development of such hotspot issues is more closely tied with major-country strategic rivalry and the transformation of regional order， showing more connected effect.

The Complex and Ever-Changing Environment in China’s Neighborhood Highlights the Importance of Enhancing Regional Cooperation

China is witnessing an ever more complex and changing neighborhood environment， which， on the one hand， poses challenges to China’s neighborhood diplomacy and on the other hand， highlights the importance of enhancing regional cooperation， thus providing new opportunities for China’s neighborhood diplomacy.

Firstly， growing uncertainties and unstable factors in China’s neighborhood further highlight the significance of international cooperation. Prevalent uncertainties in politics， economy， security and diplomacy have caused security anxiety in the countries concerned. Therefore， concerted efforts are needed to inject more certainties in the region. An international environment with certainties is conducive to promoting international cooperation and bringing a stronger sense of security to countries in the world， which is highly consistent with the interests of all countries， including China’s neighboring countries. It makes China’s efforts to inject certainties to the international community even more valuable. For decades， China has attached great importance to the neighborhood diplomacy， vigorously developed partnerships with neighboring countries and pursued common development in the region. China’s consistent and stable neighborhood diplomacy is a salient factor of certainty in its neighborhood. China’s constant endeavors to inject certainties to its neighborhood are conducive to maintaining stability in the neighborhood， which further wins the trust of neighboring countries and continuously deepens China’s relations with its neighboring countries.

Secondly， against the backdrop of strategic rivalry among major countries and the spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts， the environment for regional economic cooperation has deteriorated to a certain extent， but the need to accelerate development has become more essential and urgent. Objectively speaking， the majority of China’s neighboring countries are not faced with the imminent traditional security threats. The issue that faces them for a long time has been how to seek better development. With political fragility in some of China’s neighboring countries， sluggish economic development may exacerbate their domestic political problems. Therefore， they need to better handle development-related issues. In 2023， the world’s per capita GDP was US$13，169.6. Among China’s neighboring countries， only Singapore， Japan， Brunei， South Korea and Russia boasted a higher per capita GDP， making up less than one-fifth of the total number of China’s neighboring countries. The per capita GDP of most of China’s neighboring countries were below US$5，000 in 2023. 13 countries， including Bangladesh， Uzbekistan， India， Laos， Kyrgyzstan， Cambodia， North Korea， Timor-Leste， Pakistan， Nepal， Tajikistan， Myanmar and Afghanistan， had per capita GDP below US$3，000， meaning that there was a long way ahead for them to achieve modernization. To promote common development， China has put forward the Global Development Initiative and released relevant concept documents， reports on implementation progress and lists of outcomes. In a highly uncertain international environment， seeking common development is a critical area where China and its neighboring countries can deepen cooperation. Both sides can curb the spread of “pan-securitization” phenomenon in the process of cooperation， ensuring that regional cooperation always maintains its forward momentum.

Thirdly， the Trump administration has adopted highly protectionist and bullying tariff policies that severely disrupt the global trade and regional industrial chains. Such policies further necessitate the efforts made by China and its neighboring countries to enhance cooperation to cushion the impacts of these policies. Trump’s return to power has placed countries surrounding China， including Japan， South Korea， Vietnam and India， under the dark shadow of a new round of “trade wars” waged unilaterally by the United States. In 2023， several countries surrounding China enjoyed significant trade surpluses in goods with the United States， particularly Vietnam （US$83.24 billion）， Japan （US$61.67 billion）， South Korea （US$44.59 billion）， India （US$33.68 billion） and Malaysia （US$15.94 billion）. Among them， Japan and South Korea， highly dependent on the security umbrella provided by the United States， are extremely vulnerable under the Trump administration’s extremely high-pressure economic and trade policies. The radical trade measures the Trump administration has taken shock the economic growth of such Southeast Asian countries as Vietnam and Malaysia. Faced with the Trump administration’s highly uncertain policies that are destructive to the global trade landscape， many of China’s neighboring countries are deeply concerned. In this context， closer economic and trade cooperation with China can help its neighboring countries expand their room for maneuver under the US pressure. Even those countries that had actively catered to the US regional strategy during the Biden administration now have the strategic need to seek more policy options. According to a poll released by the Singapore-based Yusof Ishak Institute （ISEAS） in 2024， when asked “if ASEAN has to choose between China and the United States， which side will it choose？”， 50.5% of respondents chose China， with Myanmar having the highest proportion （75.1%）， followed by Indonesia （73.2%）， Laos （70.6%）， Brunei （70.1%） and Thailand （52.2%）. These countries have benefited from economic and trade cooperation with China， especially from their joint efforts to advance the Belt and Road Initiative. This fact indicates that the US moves to create conflicts and make trouble in the region are unpopular and that China’s efforts to strengthen economic cooperation with neighboring countries have achieved significant results.

Fourthly， the marginal space is limited for the United States to establish “mini-multilateral mechanisms” in China’s neighborhood and strengthen its alliance against China. Since 2018， the United States has deliberately instigated bloc politics and confrontation across the world and established a series of “mini-multilateral mechanisms” in China’s neighborhood. With the constant US moves， China’s neighborhood has seen a certain degree of division. In the Asia-Pacific region， the main participants in the US-led blocs against China include Japan， Australia， India， South Korea and the Philippines. In general， only a few neighboring countries of China truly and deeply engage in the “mini-multilateral mechanisms”. Thailand and Pakistan， as allies of the United States， both have established high-level strategic partnerships with China and are working vigorously with China to build a bilateral community with a shared future. They will not， in principle， join the US-led blocs against China. Vietnam， Singapore and Indonesia， countries that the United States attempts to gang up with， have repeatedly expressed their unwillingness to choose between major countries. Besides， Vietnam and Indonesia are active in cooperating with China to build a bilateral community with a shared future. China’s deeper cooperation with neighboring countries provides them with a broader strategic space to avoid taking sides and makes it more difficult for the United States to gang up with and pressure neighboring countries to join its blocs against China. In the foreseeable future， the space will be relatively limited for the United States to further expand its “mini-multilateral mechanisms” targeting China in China’s neighborhood.

Fifthly， in the past few years， China has enhanced strategic partnership with its neighboring countries and joined hands to advance the building of a neighborhood community with a shared future， which is a solid proof that China’s cooperation with neighboring countries can overcome the harsh international environment. Since 2022， China has upgraded strategic partnerships with its neighboring countries， by establishing the all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership for the new era with Uzbekistan， comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with Tajikistan and Bangladesh， and comprehensive strategic partnership with Kyrgyzstan， Turkmenistan， Timor-Leste and Mongolia. On the basis of building bilateral communities with a shared future with Pakistan， Laos， Cambodia and Myanmar， China has further announced to build bilateral communities with a shared future with neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan， Uzbekistan， Indonesia， Thailand， Mongolia， Turkmenistan， Malaysia， Tajikistan， Kyrgyzstan and Vietnam. In the neighborhood， regional communities with a shared future， such as the China-ASEAN community with a shared future， the China-Central Asia community with a shared future and a community with a shared future among Lancang-Mekong countries， have been established one after another. In the international context of intensified major-country strategic competition and geopolitical conflicts， the building of a community with a shared future in the neighborhood has been accelerated since 2022 and achieved various remarkable outcomes. This has indicated that the building of such a community can overcome unfavorable factors in the international system and regional situation， and demonstrates the strong vitality of the concept of a community with a shared future.

Promoting Sound Development of the Security Environment in China’s Neighborhood Through Proactive Policies

Against the backdrop of prolonged strategic competition among major countries， ongoing spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts and considerable uncertainties in the Trump administration’s foreign policy， China should adjust and optimize its neighborhood diplomacy according to changing circumstances.

The first is to inject certainties into the international community through consistent and stable policy practices to alleviate neighboring countries’ concerns over international cooperation and future prospects. As a major country with extensive influence， China is well positioned to improve certainties of international relations by maintaining consistency in its own foreign policy and stability in its behavior and practice， thus providing clear expectations for the international community and certainties for neighboring countries， which are in short supply in the current international system. The certainties that China is ready to offer include the following six aspects. First， China could offer the certainty of policy concepts. It will remain committed to the concept of peaceful development and win-win cooperation and vigorously build a community with a shared future in the neighborhood. Second， China will offer the certainty of policy objectives. It will not casually adjust policy objectives due to changes in power balance and regional situation， nor will it adopt practices like “America First” in disregard of other countries’ interests. Rather， it will maintain a high-level restraint in strategic objectives. Third， China will offer the certainty of economic cooperation by always adopting a positive attitude towards promoting bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation. Fourth， China will offer the certainty of security cooperation. It strives to strengthen multilevel security cooperation with its neighboring countries and avoids the practice of bloc confrontation in the field of security. Fifth， China will offer the certainty of policies for managing hotspot issues. China will proactively manage hotspot issues in its neighborhood， rather than attempting to seek benefits from such hotspot issues like some countries do. Sixth， China will offer the certainty of behaviors. It will act on the principle of “amity， sincerity， mutual benefit and inclusiveness” and refrain from any opportunistic behaviors or practices of power politics.

The second is to manage hotspot issues in the neighborhood， promote the “de-securitization” of economic cooperation and avoid regional issues being dominated by security issues. Against the backdrop of intensified major-country competition and turbulent international situations， China needs to strengthen cooperation with its neighboring countries to manage and control hotspot issues in the neighborhood in a more effective manner. Faced with the spread of the “pan-securitization” phenomenon， China and its neighboring countries can engage in cooperation to promote “de-securitization” so as to restore and maintain the mutually-beneficial nature of economic cooperation. By “putting security factors back into security issues and putting economic factors back into economic affairs”， China and its neighboring countries could jointly avoid the excessive influence and infiltration of security on economic cooperation， and avoid the intensification and escalation of security conflicts in the neighborhood.

The third is to constantly deepen and enrich the partnership with neighboring countries and advance the building of a community with a shared future in the neighborhood. China shall tighten its bond of interests and emotions with neighboring countries to push forward the common development of the region， with the aim of easing regional tensions and reducing the interference of security factors on development issues. China can leverage on such initiatives as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative to strengthen economy， trade， investment and development cooperation with neighboring countries， enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market to neighboring countries and promote bilateral cooperation in such fields as digital economy and artificial intelligence， so as to achieve common progress in the economic and technological fields， enhance social and cultural exchanges， strengthen mutual goodwill and recognition， and thus maintain a stable neighborhood environment for peaceful development.

The fourth is to continuously develop stronger leadership and diminish the impacts of major-country competition and geopolitical conflicts on the order of China’s neighborhood. The United States is one of the main factors affecting the security environment surrounding China. The regional security order forged by the US has failed to lessen the security threats facing countries in the region， but rather severely deteriorated the security environment in the region. By providing sufficient strategic buffer space for neighboring countries， China can help ease the pressure on them to choose between major countries and thus provides a relatively relaxed regional environment where they could better safeguard and pursue their own interests， and voice for their independence， autonomy and peaceful development. By adopting a highly open attitude towards pragmatic cooperation with the US allies in the Asia-Pacific region， China has been trying to avoid rigid bloc politics and confrontation and offers more possible options for developing relations with these countries. China advocates an inclusive vision on security， promotes the establishment of a nonexclusive regional security architecture that includes more countries in the region， mitigates the negative impacts of zero-sum games and confrontational thinking on regional cooperation to push forward sound development of order in the neighborhood.

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Zhou Fangyin is Professor at the School of Global and Area Studies of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies