他讀懂了云的語言

當雙鬢染霜的他在新年的爆竹聲中敲開自己的家門時，這已是他闊別祖國、闊別妻子的第13個年頭了。年近七旬的他這次回家，不僅在新年里給老伴與親友們送上了久違的問候，還帶來一份讓人難以置信的驚喜。

作為杭州一名普通的退休工程師，他在美國花了12年的心血，終于讀懂了云的語言，他將變幻莫測的云彩里里外外研究個透，讓它乖乖成了“地震預報員”，為他一次次正確發布地震災難預報當好“參謀”，正由于此，“壽仲浩”這三個字也成為國際上響當當的民間地震預報專家的代名詞。

從云彩中預知臺風

他7歲自制會開火的小手槍，35年前寫出一整套保護黃河的方案，1979年又開始研究用化學方法治理杭州河道污染……壽仲浩從來不缺奇思妙想，不過他與云彩的緣分還是要從1988年8月7日說起。

那是一個晴朗的傍晚，壽仲浩牽著妻子與小女兒的手在杭州西湖邊散步，發現天邊的云彩正在不停地翻滾變化，幻化出五顏六色與各種形狀，煞是好看。女兒不禁拍著手掌歡呼：“老師說這叫火燒云，真漂亮。”“這云彩變得好快，簡直像走馬燈一樣。”妻子附和道。而從小在農村長大、對氣象預報頗有見解的壽仲浩，則在一旁皺起了眉頭：“云彩變化的速度快得驚人，如果不是受強大的氣流影響，絕對不可能這樣，怕是臺風要來了吧?!”

一回到家，壽仲浩便拿起木條、榔頭和釘子在自家的屋里屋外忙開了：他要將每扇窗戶都釘得牢牢的。隔壁鄰居好奇地過來打聽：“老壽，你這是干什么呢?”“臺風要來了。”壽仲浩認真地說。沒想到這個回答卻引來鄰居的嘲笑：“氣象臺都沒預報，你憑幾朵云彩就知道要刮臺風了?”有意思的是，壽仲浩的話還真靈驗，第二天“八號臺風”便席卷全杭城，西湖邊的大樹許多被刮倒，這下連妻子都不得不佩服壽仲浩的“神機妙算”了!

第一次預報地震

看云看出門道的壽仲浩，接著又在1990年6月20日萬里無云的杭州上空，瞧見了西邊突然出現一道竹竿似的云彩。“這絕對不是普通的氣象云!”他想著，忽然記起《光明日報》刊登的一篇有關“地震云”的文章，他腦海里電光火石般一閃：“這就是‘地震云’!”

下班后，壽仲浩一頭扎進了杭州圖書館地震資料文獻中，找到了由西安科學出版社出版的《這是地震云》一書。該書描述了“地震云”的形狀，并將其定義為“地震前的一種先兆”，這一說法，證實了壽仲浩的想法。根據資料與眼下這條出現在西方上空的竹竿狀云彩，他當即向兩位同事預言：“西面不久將有一場地震。”果然，18小時后伊朗發生了大地震!這是壽仲浩第一次準確預報地震，并得到了兩位同事的書面證明。

一場地震改變后半生

但真正促使壽仲浩走上預報地震之路的，卻是一場發生在美國加州的“北山地震(Northridge Earthquake)”。

“要是沒有那場地震，也許就不會有我們老兩口13年的分離。”仰望蒼穹，壽仲浩打開了記憶的閥門：1993年5月，他應在美國加州理工學院讀書的大女兒邀請，赴美探親，計劃暫住一年后即回國。不料次年1月8日上午7點半(當地時間)，他在天空中發現了一朵形似羽毛的云彩，極像“地震云”，他當即拍下照片。沖印出來后又按照自己所掌握的相關知識，對照片中的“地震云”作了各種分析，初步判定在1月12日至27日，南加州帕桑迪那西北，將有一次六級以上的大地震。

壽仲浩操著半生不熟的英語跑到USGS(美國國家地質測繪局)想去說一下他的這一發現，然而時逢雙休日，他在USGS辦公室外吃了個閉門羹，只得等到周一再去，不想地震卻在17日即周一早晨4點30分發生了!在發生地震時的30秒內，壽仲浩宛如置身于大風大浪的小船中，半步都挪不了。

值得一提的是，這次大地震發生在美國地震學家認為的“無震區”，人員的損失傷亡相當慘重。這次地震的時間、地點、震級均與壽仲浩的預測完全一致，由此他感悟到了自己在這方面的責任，為了進一步探究“地震云”，摸透它們的脾性，于是這位年過花甲的知識分子改變了探親計劃，他決定在美國開始與“地震云”進一步“對話”。這一對話，竟讓他在美國又住了12年!

叫板“板塊學說”

經過長年的研究與實踐檢驗，壽仲浩終于獨創了一套“地震云”理論。

他的理論認為：地殼的薄弱部分在外力下首先破裂，從而引發小地震，造成多處裂縫，于是地表水沿裂縫向地下滲透，并由摩擦產生的熱量加熱地下水產生了蒸汽，久而久之形成了高壓高熱的蒸汽，這蒸汽沖出地面遇冷凝結成云，這便是“地震云”的由來。在地震云產生以后，地下產生脫水，巖石的強度突然下降，最終引發了大地震。“這個理論能夠用事實加以證實，”壽仲浩說，“北山地震之前，在震源10千米范圍內發生過79次小地震；唐山地震中有人被燙傷；唐山地震時平房沒有倒塌，而天花板上卻沖了個洞等等事例，都與我這項理論不謀而合。”壽仲浩得意地微笑著。

雖然“地震云”理論與“大陸板塊學說”關于引發地震的起因大相徑庭，但他卻信心十足地告訴筆者：“我堅信自己的看法是正確的，完全可以挑戰‘板塊學說’，歷史與時間將會替我作出證明。”

理清了“地震云”的來龍去脈，壽仲浩更加醉心于利用這種特殊的云預報地震的研究了。他每天工作12小時，想方設法搜羅大量的數據進行統計分析，終于琢磨出如何區別“地震云”與氣象云，即觀察此天空云層時，應該弄清天空所積聚的云層是否有特殊形狀、固定的蒸汽源與熱量?是否突然出現?是否具有獨立的速度?壽仲浩還掌握了用“地震云”尾巴所指的方向來判斷震中，而后比較其“尾巴”大小確定震級，并以其出現的相隔時間來確定地震發生的時間。

依據其獨創的理論，壽仲浩這些年來先后向USGS預報了50次地震。按照時間誤差不超過一分鐘、震中距離誤差不超過1公里、震級誤差不超過0.1級的美國標準，壽仲浩這50次預報中有34次達到了“準確”。他還于1999年5月建立了屬于他自己的地震預報網(quake.exit.com)，至今已向全世界預報了1400余次地震，準確率達到70%。

12年的等候與理解

這位能讀懂云的語言的老者，如今已先后接受了美國、英國、印度、伊朗等多國媒體的采訪，并于2004年參加了聯合國空間防災應用程序會議以及歐洲地震探討會議等國際性會議。他的論文不但發表在英國、土耳其等國的雜志上，還出現在聯合國的空間防災文獻上。

在壽仲浩如潮的榮譽背后，卻是妻子方女士在杭州的12年等候與理解。在分離的日子里，妻子的情緒曾在一次越洋電話中爆發：“你忘記了自己的年齡與身體是不是?你能不能保證你的研究最終一定成功?你到美國后一分錢沒賺不說還拿女兒那點可憐的獎學金作海闊天空的賭博，你忍心嗎?!……”

同樣遠在大洋彼岸的女兒卻拿過聽筒阻止母親：“媽，你將爸的事當作普通人退休以后的種花養魚吧?人總得做點有益的事。”妻子想了想又問丈夫：“如果你將后半生生命全部投入進去，最后不成功會后悔嗎?”壽仲浩沉默了一下：“不，我不后悔!因為我至少努力過。”妻子終于尊重了他的選擇，開始了一個人在杭州的漫長等待。

壽仲浩對妻子深表歉意的同時，依然對“地震云”的研究樂此不疲：“2003年12月26日那次伊朗大地震發生前幾天，我家的網絡斷了，待其恢復后，我根據網上搜集的數據判斷伊朗要發生大地震，趕緊將消息發布在我的地震預報網上，結果第二天同時收到中國地球物理學會天災預測專業委員會顧問陳一文先生與土耳其克姆漢立特大學情報系主任西立特教授的電子郵件，祝賀我分毫不差地正確預報了這次地震，并對我取得的成績表示祝賀。但是我高興的同時又感到悲哀：我能夠挽救這些可能死于地震災難的人們，但可惜的是受我手頭的資源與條件所限，不能以最快的速度把一些地震消息發布出去，不然，可以救更多的人!”壽仲浩感慨地說。

筆者臨走時，壽仲浩再三表示：“若能得到當代伯樂的資助，改善我的研究條件，得到更全的衛星云圖與地震數據，我的預報有可能直沖全世界的大地震，將震中定在20公里的范圍內，震級的誤差能夠到0.2級，時間窗口能夠到20天以內。那樣，地震給予人們的災難將得到最大限度的控制。”

Life

Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds

By Shen Menghe

When silver-haired Shou Zhonghao finally came back from the States to reunite with his wife in Hangzhou in 2006， they had been separated for 13 years. Shou， in his 70s， came back not only for sharing Happy New Year wishes with his wife， relatives and friends， but also bringing them an unexpected surprise: He is now internationally recognized as an expert who issues quite accurate earthquake forecasts by analyzing clouds and posting earthquake forecasts worldwide at his Internet website.

Child and man， Shou is full of inspirational ideas. The cloud-gazer of today learned to make a handgun which could fire at the age of 7. He dreamed up an ambitious project to preserve the Yellow River thirty-five years ago. In 1979 he began to research how to use chemicals to solve the pollution that hampered the rivers that crisscrossed the downtown Hangzhou. His destiny with clouds started precisely on the evening of August 7， 1988.

In the early evening of that day， Shou was taking a stroll with his wife and his youngest daughter by the West Lake in Hangzhou. Suddenly he saw the rolling clouds changing rapidly in a fantastic way in the sky. With some knowledge of weather changes gained in his childhood years in the rural area， Shou wondered if a typhoon was coming. He reasoned that the clouds could not have reacted so vehemently and so fast without fierce impacts from powerful air currents. He concluded that it could be the precursor of a typhoon.

Back home that evening， he lost no time making himself busy fastening windows with wooden boards. Neighbors became curious and asked why he was doing this. Shou explained that a typhoon was on its way. Neighbors laughed off his idea because there was no mention of a typhoon by the local weather bureau.And how could Shou tell by the way the clouds changed? But an unexpected typhoon caught the scenic city off guard the next day and brought about heavy disasters. The disaster has been one of the worst memories of local residents in Hangzhou.

Clouds again caught his eyes on June 20， 1990 in Hangzhou. A long thin cloud resembling a bamboo pole suddenly appeared in the cloudless sky and streaked across the western sky. It meant something unusual， Shou said to himself. Then he remembered a newspaper feature about clouds that would precede earthquakes. He thought the cloud could mean an earthquake going to break out somewhere in the west.

He threw himself into the library that day. He compared what he read with what he had seen and came to the conclusion that there would be an earthquake. He made a forecast about an earthquake to his two colleagues that day. Eighteen hours later， a horrible earthquake shook Iran.

But it was another earthquake in the United States that brought unexpected radical changes to his retired life. In May 1993， he went to visit his daughter in California. Shou planned to stay with his daughter for a year. But at 7:30 on the morning of January 8， 1994， Shou saw a feather-shaped cloud in the sky and he thought it could be an indication of an oncoming earthquake. He took photographs and analyzed these pictures. Then he forecast that there would be an earthquake of more than magnitude 6 on Richter scale in southern California between January 12 and 27. Shou went to the local US Geological Survey to report his forecast. But the USGS office happened to be off during the weekend. So he decided to report his forecast on the following Monday. The Northridge earthquake occurred at 4:30 in the early morning of Monday， January 17， 1994. The earth shook for 30 seconds. Shou felt as if he had been on a ship on the raging sea.The disastrous quake verified Shou's accurate prediction. Shou felt he had the responsibility for forecasting more earthquakes and decided to stay in America to do more work on earthquake forecast.

Shou has done a lot in the 13 years. He has developed unorthodox theories to unravel earthquake information hidden in clouds， to explain how an earthquake takes shape and how clouds can herald quakes deep down in earth. His theories are way different from those based on modern geology. Over years， Shou has reported 50 forecasts to USGS. And if measured with American standard for accuracy of an earthquake forecast which tolerates an error of 1 minute in time， 1 kilometer in distance and 0.1 in magnitude， thirty-four earthquake forecasts of the 50 made by Shou were up to the strict standard. This can well testify to the usefulness of his theories on earthquake.

In May 1999， Shou set up an Internet website to forecast earthquakes. So far he has broadcast more than 1，400 warnings from his quake.exit.com. His track record has shown a startling accuracy of seventy percent.

Shou the cloud gazer now has attended a UN conference and a European forum on earthquake. His papers have been published in Britain， Turkey as well as in UN literature.

Behind his success is the eventually earned understanding and support from his wife after the 13-year separation with his wife. Today， he wishes to make more accurate forecast on earthquake. He wishes to make more accurate forecasts and allow longer time windows so that urgent measures can be taken to minimize loss of life and property.

(Translated by David)