對(duì)我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)相互關(guān)系的再檢驗(yàn)

摘 要：近年來(lái)，隨著我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)的整體快速上漲和土地出讓方式改革，理論界和實(shí)務(wù)界對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)和地價(jià)相互關(guān)系的爭(zhēng)論十分激烈，對(duì)兩者相互關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究是判別各方觀點(diǎn)正確與否的關(guān)鍵。已有的實(shí)證研究文獻(xiàn)均采用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)測(cè)定二者的相互關(guān)系，但由于在方法上存在一定的局限性，這些研究難以進(jìn)一步刻畫(huà)兩者之間的動(dòng)態(tài)聯(lián)系以及政策變化對(duì)其相互關(guān)系的影響。本文在基于向量自回歸類(lèi)模型的方差分解這一分析框架下將前人實(shí)證研究的方法和結(jié)論統(tǒng)一在一個(gè)新的分析框架內(nèi)，并完整而細(xì)膩地描述了二者的相互關(guān)系。更為重要的是，我們的計(jì)量分析刻畫(huà)出政策變動(dòng)導(dǎo)致的二者之間反應(yīng)模式的變化，為正確認(rèn)識(shí)土地出讓方式改革的實(shí)際效果提供了堅(jiān)實(shí)的實(shí)證基礎(chǔ)。

關(guān)鍵詞：房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)；地價(jià)變動(dòng);協(xié)整；向量誤差修正模型；方差分解

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：F062.9 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：10035192(2007)02000000

Further Test of the Relationship between the Housing Price and the Land Price

HUANG Jianbo， JIANG Feitao， CHEN Weigang

（Business School of Central SouthUniversity， Changsha 410083， China）

Abstract:Recent years with the holistic fast rise of our country’s housing price and the reform of the land lease institution， there is abundant discussion about the relationship between the housing price and the land price among the theoretician and the entrepreneur. The empirical research on the relationship between them becomes the key which distinguishes between right and wrong among the different sides’different views. It mainly used the Granger causality test presented by Granger according to the existing empirical research papers on the relationship between the domestic housing price and the land price. Due to some limitation of the method， the research can hardly further depict the dynamic relationship and the effect of the political change towards the relation between the two. In this paper we use the variance decomposition of the vector error correction model (VECM) to perfectly and detailedly show the relationship between the housing price and the land price. What’s more important， our quantitative analysis depicts the effect of the policy alteration towards the relation between them. And it also gives the solid demonstration foundation for the correct cognition towards the real effect of the land lease institution reform.

Key words:housing price; land price; cointegration; VECM; variance decomposition

1 引言

近年來(lái)，我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)持續(xù)快速上漲引起各方注目。為使國(guó)有土地出讓更加規(guī)范，進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化國(guó)有土地資源的管理，國(guó)土資源部于2002年4月頒布《招標(biāo)拍賣(mài)掛牌出讓國(guó)有土地使用權(quán)規(guī)定》（簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)11號(hào)令），2003年6月進(jìn)一步頒布《協(xié)議出讓國(guó)有土地使用權(quán)的規(guī)定》（簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)21號(hào)令）。11號(hào)令規(guī)定商業(yè)、旅游、娛樂(lè)和商品住宅等經(jīng)營(yíng)性用地必須以招標(biāo)、拍賣(mài)或掛牌方式出讓?zhuān)?1號(hào)令以規(guī)章的形式對(duì)協(xié)議出讓制度進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步規(guī)范，規(guī)定商業(yè)、旅游、娛樂(lè)和商品住宅等四類(lèi)經(jīng)營(yíng)性用地不得以協(xié)議方式出讓。……