Ｗｉｌｌ Ｉｎｄｉａ ａｎｄ Ｐａｋｉｓｔａｎ Ｌｏｓｅ ｔｏ Ｃｈｉｎａ ｉｎ ＵＳ Ｈｏｍｅ Ｔｅｘｔｉｌｅ Ｉｍｐｏｒｔｓ？

Although there is still over one year ahead ofthe timeline when US-China textile agreement isto be terminated at the end of 2008， the worriesfor China's export surging growth to dwarf theothers in market share seems to have alreadyinched up in some categories of home-textiles.US home-textile import in the first part of the yearprovides a signal for what would happen in thefuture.

China is the world largest cottontextile producer and imports millionsof cotton on average in recent years，majority of the imported cotton comesfrom USA. The made-ups going backto the states could be the reason for theimport growth from China in US market.Besides these cotton-based home textiles，the products made of the other importantfibers have also found a rapid rise in thissector， but India and Pakistan both havean amazing chalk up in Category 469where the former is up by 44.65% andthe latter 200%.

As the three countries account foran overwhelming global share， saying81.96% in the first half of 2007 asagainst 78.34% in the same period lastyear， in the US import market for thecotton home-textiles， a change in theirindividual fall or rise in US import sharewould be interesting， for it indicates ashift in future buying behavior.

Pakistan is still very strong in cottonhome-textile in US import share despitea fall from 41% in the first 6 months in2006 to 35% in the same time this yearfor pillowcase， and from 41.42% to 36%for cotton sheets， and a 10 percentagepoint down for bedspreads/quilts from62.3% to 51.91%. The escalation insecurity concerns in Pakistan might havepartly explained US buyers sourcingshift to China as China has roared upto 61.13%， 53.65% and 59.55% in thementioned three categories in US importto take up more market share， namely34.46% for pillowcase， 34.35% forcotton sheets and 23% for bedspreads/quilts.

But China is not a giant in somecategories when it comes to wool hometextiles， especially for wool blankets，wool-based floor coverings and otherwool manufacturing when comparedwith India that takes up around halfof US market share on average. Thatis an optimistic view of the figure.Pessimistically， if one takes a lookat a trend only to find India mightbe threatened by Chinese risingshipments to USA as China rose 23%，following a drop of 38% last year ina sharp contrast to a dramatic declineby 52% from India.

India still keeps almost 60% of USmarket share， taking the No.1 position inthis category while China only takes uponly 23.05% share， far from dethroningIndia's king position in this category andin all the listed wool categories as well.

On the market for man-made fibercategories， India and Pakistan havenothing to say as both countries dependmore on natural fibers for home-textilethan on man-made fibers that are almostglobally centered in China that declaredto break through 20 million tons inproduction last year， taking up 64%of the country's total fiber processingvolume， and two-thirds of the worldMMF production. Everything being\"synthetic\" is not possible， but probablein this country.

China takes the lion's share in MMFcategories in US home-textile importwhile Pakistan encountered a sharp fallof 53.35% in category 669 to take almosta nil share in US market.

India fell 18.33% in growth incategory 666 and had an impressiveincrease of 29.04% in category 669， butonly to take a poor 5.52% market share.

China， India and Pakistan arenormally thought of as \"textile giants\"，even though China is the tallest of thethree. One should be aware that Indiaand Pakistan are the only two countriesin the world， which have Ministriesof Textile in the government cabinetto provide governmental support andguidelines for the development ofthe local textile industry while Chinadismissed its Ministry of Textile in 1993and once again abandoned the StateAdministration of Textile Industry in2001 to give a free hand to the growth ofits textile industry. It is true the Chinesetextile industry is now more active anddynamic as its growth is largely drivenby market system than it was in the pastwhen everything was under control inthe old governmental planning system.

Will India and Pakistan run intothe same problems as China did withgovernment involvement in the textileindustry? Would government-supportiveindustry turn out to be more competitivethan the marketized industry? Win orLose， it is a matter of how to play thegame， not a matter of what was gained，but a matter of what to be gained.