高新技術產品供應鏈的產能協調策略

摘 要：高新技術產品供應鏈產能設施投資高、建設周期長、技術進步速度快，而高新技術產品生命周期短，市場需求波動劇烈。高新技術產業普遍采用的長期合作生產模式雖然能夠提高產能協調效率，但并不能實現最優協調。結合長期合作模式，本文提出了產能成本共擔和協作收益共享協調機制。這兩種機制能自發實現分散化供應鏈的產能最優協調。最后，分析了需求的不確定性、產能投資成本、技術進步速度等因素對產能協調的影響。

關鍵詞：高技術產品；供應鏈；產能管理；協調

中圖分類號：F274 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1003-5192(2008)03-0069-06

Capacity Coordination Schemas for High-tech Supply Chains

LI Gang，SUN Lin-yan，XU Sheng，LI Jian

(The Management School of Xi’an Jiaotong University，The State Key Lab for Manufacturing Systems Engineering，Xi’an 710049，China)

Abstract：High-tech supply chain is characterized by high capacity cost，rapid innovation and long capacity lead time. While，firms have to surfer short-life-cycle products and volatile demands. Under the make-to-order operation strategy and the stochastic demand，the long-term collaboration schema which is used widely in high-tech industries cannot lead to capacity coordination. In a two-stage high-tech supply chain，the suppliers are conservative to expand to the channel optimal capacity. We investigate how manufacturer can use transfer payment to stimulate the supplier to build the channel optimal capacity. Two collaboration schemas (capacity cost sharing schema，and collaboration overflow sharing schema) are proposed to influence the capacity decision of the supplier in the long-term collaboration. The schemas are Pareto-optimal mechanisms，which allow channel efficiency to be achieved as well as they could improve the profits of all firms and maximize the total profit of the supply chain.

Key words：high-tech products；supply chain；capacity management；coordination

1 引言

高新技術產業(計算機、半導體、生物醫藥)是資本和技術密集產業，其生產設施投資大、建設周期長、技術進步速度快，而其產品生命周期短、需求不確定性程度高。以集成電路產業為例，一個集成電路圓晶廠的投資約10億到40億美元，單臺設備價格高達400~500萬美元，設備采購周期長達6~12個月，設備的生命周期只有5年。而集成電路產業景氣循環周期短，產品市場需求波動劇烈。據統計，集成電路的生命周期只有9個月左右，產品需求在季度間波動高達80%。為了獲得穩定供應，并降低產能擴張風險，制造商通常采用制造外包，供應商管理庫存等方式。為了獲得穩定充足的供應，制造商通常會故意夸大市場需求預測。而供應商則為了降低產能擴張風險，產能擴張相對保守^[1]，雙方不能有效實現多變的市場需求和高風險性產能擴張之間的協調。……