投機性房地產泡沫預警指標的構建及實證分析

摘 要：惡性投機性房地產泡沫已經成為影響各國房地產行業健康發展乃至整個國民經濟正常運轉的最大潛在性威脅，因此專門針對房地產交易中投機性的大小建立預警體系從而對投機性房地產泡沫進行有效的監控就顯得尤為重要。本文在界定投機性房地產泡沫的基礎上，建立衡量房地產交易中投機性大小的指標體系，結合功效系數法構建了投機性房地產泡沫預警體系的理論框架，并結合我國實際，對投機性房地產泡沫的預警指標進行了應用。

關鍵詞：房地產行業;投機性房地產泡沫;功效系數;預警

中圖分類號：F29. 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：100-5192(2008)01-004-07

Research on Construction of Index System for Speculative Real Estate

Bubble Early-warning and Empirical Analysis U Yan-xia

( School of Business Administration， Xi’an University of echnology， Xi’an 710054， China)

Abstract:M alignant speculative real estate bubble has been the biggest potential threat for the healthy development of real estate industry in all countries as well as the normal running of the whole national economy. herefore， it is significant to construct a early-warning system in allusion to the speculation degree in real estate transaction to monitor and control the speculative real estate bubble. his thesis constructs an index system to measure the speculation degree in real estate transaction on the basis of defining the notion of speculative real estate bubble and composes a theoretic framework for speculative real estate bubble early-warning system combining with efficiency coefficient method and applies it in analysing the speculative real estate bubble early-warning in our country.

Key words:real estate industry;speculative real estate bubble;efficiency coefficient method;early-warning system

1 引言

“房地產泡沫”是以房地產為載體的泡沫經濟。房地產泡沫產生的誘因有多種，過度的投機活動、消費者預期的有限性、房地產市場發育不健全、金融體制不完善以及政府的不適當干預都會導致房地產市場上泡沫的產生和膨脹［1］ 。其中由于過度的投機而導致的惡性投機性房地產泡沫是房地產交易中最常見、威脅最大且最難以防范和控制的房地產泡沫。1997 年東南亞金融危機和日本自1991 年以來經濟的停滯不前都同房地產投機導致的房地產泡沫有很大關系。投機性房地產泡沫爆發突然、危害性大，一旦泡沫形成，政府再采取補救措施，必定付出巨大的代價。所以，針對房地產交易中的投機性建立投機性房地產泡沫預警體系，以減輕其可能產生的負面影響，對保護國民經濟的健康運轉有著重要的意義。……