出租車監管措施效果的仿真預測模型

摘 要：針對我國出租車監管措施的制定主要依據經驗而缺乏理論支撐的現狀，提出一種基于離散事件仿真的巡游型出租車服務模型。為真實模擬我國出租車路邊隨機搭載乘客居多的特點，假定出行需求分布在路網的節點和路段上。乘客根據價格和期望出行時間選擇是否乘坐出租車，而空車根據有限的路網信息以及駕駛經驗尋找乘客。模型能夠模擬出租車在路網上搜索乘客并提供出行服務的動態過程，定量反映價格和配車數量與系統性能的關系，并預測改變起步價格、起步里程或者單位里程價格等監管措施的實施效果，為監管部門決策提供可靠的理論支持。

關鍵詞：出租車服務；監管措施；離散事件仿真；系統性能

中圖分類號：U121 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1003-5192(2008)04-0046-07

A Simulation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Supervising

Interventions of Cruising Taxi Service

MU Chen， XUAN Hui-yu

(School of Management， Xi’an Jiaotong University，Xi’an， 710049， China)

Abstract:Taxi regulation interventions are mostly based on experience and lack of theoretical support， thus we propose a discrete event system simulation model for cruising taxi service. The passengers are assumed to be at nodes and links， thus the common behavior that taxis may pick up passengers anywhere on roadside in our country is taken into consideration. In this model， a potential customer decides whether to take taxi according to price and the expected travel time， and a vacant taxi decides where to find new passengers in view of finite information and driving experience. The model attempts to deal with the dynamic process of taxis searching for passengers and providing travel services， and quantitatively analyze how price and taxi fleet size influence system performance. The model can provide an evaluation of the impact of such intervention as changing price and start distance， and is helpful for taxi supervisor to provide better service.

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Key words:taxi services; supervising intervention; discrete event system simulation; system performance

1 引言

出租車以其方便、快速、舒適的特性在城市公共交通中扮演著重要角色。但出租車只能承擔單獨或小批量乘客的出行任務，運輸效率低，加重了道路負擔和交通擁擠，因此需要通過價格和控制配車數量對出租車行業進行監管。要使監管措施行之有效，需要更精確掌握出租車服務的相關規律，預測監管措施對供、求兩方面和系統服務水平的可能影響［1］。因此，模擬出租車在城市道路上搜索乘客并提供出行服務的動態過程具有重要的理論實踐意義。

然而，出租車服務具有隨機性、動態性和異步并發性特點，沒有固定的起迄點和運行線路，難以用微分、差分方法描述，經典文獻往往忽略其時空特性或以特殊結構進行簡化。……