北極熊真的受傷了

The fate of polar bears could be even bleaker than that estimate， because sea ice in the Arctic might be vanishing faster than the available computer models predict， the geological survey said in a report aimed at determining whether the big white bear should be listed as a threatened species.

\"There is a definite link between changes in the sea ice and the welfare of polar bears，\" said Steve Amstrup， who led the research team. Arctic sea ice is already at an all-time low this year， according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.

That means that polar bears—some 16，000 of them — will disappear by 2050 from parts of the Arctic where sea ice is melting most rapidly， along the north coasts of Alaska and Russia， researchers said.

Other polar bear populations could survive beyond that date but many of those could be gone by 2100， Amstrup said. By century's end， the only polar bears left might live in the Canadian Arctic islands and along the west coast of Greenland.

\"Projected changes in future sea ice conditions， if realized， will result in loss of approximately two-thirds of the world's current polar bear population by the mid 21st century，\" the report's executive summary said.

\"Because the observed trajectory of Arctic sea ice decline appears to be underestimated by currently available models， this assessment of future polar bear status may be conservative.\"

In January， the US Fish and Wildlife Service proposed listing the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act， noting polar bears depended on sea ice as a platform to hunt seals， their main prey.

A decision on the bears' status is expected in January.

美國(guó)一項(xiàng)地質(zhì)勘探報(bào)告稱，由于北極圈海冰的融化速度可能比現(xiàn)有電腦模型所預(yù)測(cè)的要快，因此北極熊的命運(yùn)可能比預(yù)計(jì)的要悲慘。該報(bào)告旨在確定是否將北極熊列為瀕危物種。

研究小組組長(zhǎng)史蒂夫·阿姆斯特拉普說(shuō)：“北極海冰的融化與北極熊的命運(yùn)有著必然聯(lián)系。”據(jù)美國(guó) 國(guó)家冰雪數(shù)據(jù)中心的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，今年，北極圈的海冰總面積已創(chuàng)歷史最低紀(jì)錄。

研究人員稱，這意味著到2050年，約1萬(wàn)6千只北極熊將從海冰融化最快的阿拉斯加和俄羅斯北部海岸地區(qū)消失。

阿姆斯特拉普說(shuō)，其余的大多數(shù)北極熊到2100年可能也將絕跡。到本世紀(jì)末，僅存的北極熊可能將生活在加拿大北極島嶼及格林蘭島的西海岸地區(qū)。

該報(bào)告的小結(jié)部分提到：“如果有關(guān)未來(lái)北極海冰變化的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確的話，到本世紀(jì)中期，目前全世界的北極熊數(shù)量將減少三分之二。”

“由于目前現(xiàn)有的模型對(duì)北極海冰融化速度的估計(jì)可能不足，所以對(duì)北極熊未來(lái)命運(yùn)的估計(jì)可能有些保守。”

今年1月，美國(guó)魚類及野生動(dòng)物保護(hù)局提議將北極熊列入《瀕危物種法案》的瀕危物種名單，并指出北極熊主要依靠海冰這一“平臺(tái)”來(lái)捕食海豹。

北極熊是否將被列為瀕危物種將于明年1月揭曉。

◆編輯：夏天兒