不確定收益下公路BOT項目特許期決策方法研究

摘 要:特許期作為BOT項目特許經營協議中的一項重要條款，一直是學術界和實務界共同關注的焦點。通過對特許期影響因素和決策方法相關文獻的回顧，歸納出建設期、建設成本、交通量、收費價格、運營和維護成本等關鍵風險因素，采用符合項目實踐運作規律的概率分布函數進行擬合，構建了項目收入函數和成本函數，根據對建設期、建設成本和運營期內收益凈現值進行Monte Carlo模擬的結果，求解出在給定投資回報水平下的特許期區間，并結合一個實際案例對特許期模擬求解流程進行驗證，為不確定收益下公路BOT項目特許期決策提供了一種可借鑒方法。

關鍵詞:BOT;特許期;公路項目;蒙特卡羅模擬;不確定性

中圖分類號:F294.1 文獻標識碼:A 文章編號:1003-5192(2010)02-0058-06

A Methodology for Determining the Concession Period of BOTHighway Projects under Uncertainty of Revenue

WANG Dong-bo， SONG Jin-bo， DAI Da-shuang， LI Zheng

(School of Management， Dalian University of Technology， Dalian 116024， China)

Abstract:Concession period is one of the most important issues through the concession agreement of build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects， and has been the focus in fields of both academy and practice. Through the review of relevant literatures on influencing factors and decision methods for concession period， several key risks including construction period， construction cost， traffic volume， price and operation and maintenance cost are concluded. Each risk is measured with a kind of probability distribution function according to the practical regulations， and further income function and cost function are established respectively. According to the results of Monte Carlo simulation to construction period， construction cost and net present value in the operation period， a reasonable interval of concession period could be determined at required rate of return on investment， and a case study is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology and simulation techniques. It provides a referential methodology for determining the concession period of BOT highway projects under uncertainty of revenue.

Key words:build-operate-transfer (BOT); concession period; highway project; Monte Carlo simulation; uncertainty

1 引言

近年來，采用BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)方式運作基礎設施交通項目成為減輕政府財政負擔、提高項目運營效率的重要手段，這一領域的研究也迅速引起國內外學者和實務界的廣泛關注。然而，由于針對特許期這一特許協議中的關鍵參數缺乏科學的決策方法，導致許多BOT項目運作失敗[1，2]。公路BOT項目投資高、特許期長、風險大，收益具有較高不確定性，不合理的特許期設定將導致投資者獲得超額利潤或者無法實現預期收益，進而導致項目失敗。據國家審計署2008年《18個省市收費公路建設運營管理情況審計調查結果》顯示，在山東省、北京市等12個省市35條經營性公路中，由于政府批準的特許期過長且交通量過高，許多項目(如濟青高速公路等)的運營收入竟然達到投資的數倍甚至10倍以上。……