短期國(guó)際資本\\廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

摘 要：本文構(gòu)建起短期國(guó)際資本對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的理論模型，并對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量和國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，短期國(guó)際資本影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是：在短期內(nèi)，短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)顯著引起廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量變化，廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量的變化又會(huì)顯著導(dǎo)致國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。本文進(jìn)一步結(jié)合脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解研究短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模波動(dòng)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率之間的關(guān)系，發(fā)現(xiàn)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模波動(dòng)率是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率發(fā)生波動(dòng)的單項(xiàng)Granger原因；經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的波動(dòng)中有約20%是由于短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模波動(dòng)率發(fā)生異動(dòng)所致。

關(guān)鍵詞：短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng);廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量;經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

中圖分類號(hào)：F831.7 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1003-5192(2011)02-0007-05

Short-term International Capital， Broad Money Supply and Economic Growth

ZHOU Ting-zuo， ZHANG Yi-hao， LUN Xiao-bo

（School of Business， Nanjing University， Nanjing 210093， China）

Abstract:In this paper， a theoretical model concerning the influence of Short-term International Capital flow on the economic growth has been built. In addition， empirical research on the interrelationship of Short-term International Capital flow，broad money supply and economic growth has been conducted. The research shows the transmission mechanism through which Short-term International Capital flow has an effect on economic growth: within a short period， Short-term International Capital flow greatly affects the scale of broad money supply， which subsequently leads to a significant fluctuation in GDP. Furthermore， with the help of impulse response function and variance decomposition， the author analyzes the relationship between volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow and the economic growth rate. The study reveals that the volatility in the scale of Short-term International Capital flow is the granger reason for economic growth rate; About 20% of drastic fluctuations in the economic growth rate were due to abnormal volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow.

Key words:short-term international capital; broad money supply; economic growth

1 引言

自2002年以來，隨著境外短期國(guó)際資本的大規(guī)模持續(xù)涌入，我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)相繼發(fā)生了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫、股市上漲、人民幣升值、流動(dòng)性過剩和通貨膨脹。2007年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)并引發(fā)國(guó)際金融危機(jī)之后，全球金融機(jī)構(gòu)的“去金融杠杠化”趨勢(shì)強(qiáng)化，外部沖擊下的國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)劇烈演變，潛入的短期國(guó)際資本又出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)勢(shì)頭，與之伴隨著的是國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣政策困境、人民幣匯率波動(dòng)、股指大跌，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。因此，從當(dāng)前中國(guó)的現(xiàn)實(shí)國(guó)情出發(fā)，分析短期國(guó)際資本對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及其傳導(dǎo)渠道，科學(xué)而前瞻地研究短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率波動(dòng)的關(guān)系，無疑是理論界和實(shí)務(wù)部門面臨的重要課題，同時(shí)也可為妥善應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)前的金融危機(jī)提供重要思路。……