財政支出政策的就業效應研究

摘 要：針對中國面臨嚴重的就業問題，在市場無法充分解決的情況下，本文研究財政支出的就業效應。通過計算財政支出各項明細與就業的相關系數，確定了各項財政支出的就業影響時滯期。對現行財政政策的就業效應進行了實證分析，有針對性地對非財政教育投入、非預算內固定資產投資進行格蘭杰因果性分析，利用F統計量、卡方統計量、赤池信息準則、貝葉斯信息準則等檢驗方法對財政支出變量進行逐步回歸，剔除不顯著變量后，構建了財政支出政策的就業回歸模型，并提出了調整財政支出結構的實踐路徑選擇。

關鍵詞：財政支出；就業；時滯性；格蘭杰因果檢驗；多元回歸

中圖分類號：F810.45 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：10035192(2012)03001905

Research of Fiscal Expenditure Policy ’s Employment Effect

WANG Zhiyu1， TIAN Jinxin1， WANG Wenjing2

(1.Harbin Institute of Technology， School of Management and Economy， Harbin 150001， China; 2.Nankai University，School of Economics， Tianjin 300071， China)

Abstract:When China is confronting increasingly severe employment problem and the market could not fully solve this problem， the employment effect of fiscal expenditure policy is studied in this paper. The coefficients of fiscal expenditure items and employment are calculated， and fiscal expenditure items ’ lag phases are determined. Empirical analysis is done of the current fiscal expenditure policy ’s employment effect， and Granger causality analysis is done of nonfiscal educational investment and nonbudgeted fixed asset investment. Stepwise regression of fiscal expenditure variables is carried out using the F statistic， Chisquare statistic， Akaike information criterion， and Bayesian information criterion. Excluding not significant variables， the regression model of fiscal expenditure policy and employment is built. Besides， practical pathway is brought forward for adjusting fiscal expenditure structure.

Key words:fiscal expenditure; employment; hysteresis; Granger causality test; multivariable regression

1 引言

就業問題涉及群眾的切身利益，具有十分重要的政治、經濟和社會意義。中國自從加入WTO以后把就業問題推向市場，財政政策就必須要對經濟波動造成的就業波動進行宏觀調控。國內外文獻中對財政教育支出對就業的影響研究較多，D ’Orlando提出教育支出不足，造成國民學歷低引起失業［1］。丁穎研究了國外經合組織國家的公立學校和私立學校情況，發現對私立學校給予撥款的形式吸引了大量民間資本對教育的投入，對民眾就業起到了間接促進作用［2］。國內外學者對社會保障支出的就業影響持不同態度。孫永勇認為擴大社會保障支出，會減少人們對未來生活的擔憂，削弱預防性儲蓄，對人均消費支出的影響產生正效應，拉動生產促進就業［3］?！?br>