基于經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對(duì)稱(chēng)性的東亞貨幣合作研究

摘要：每次金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)都會(huì)引起人們對(duì)區(qū)域貨幣合作的高度關(guān)注。亞洲金融危機(jī)催生了東亞貨幣合作的基石即以清邁倡議（CMI）為代表的區(qū)域救助機(jī)制，而此次危機(jī)后形成的標(biāo)志性合作成果則是清邁倡議多邊機(jī)制（CMIM）。本文正是基于上述事實(shí)通過(guò)建立向量自回歸模型比較東亞地區(qū)過(guò)去30年和近10年經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對(duì)稱(chēng)性的差異，以考察東亞地區(qū)貨幣合作基礎(chǔ)的新特征和變化趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明，東亞地區(qū)小國(guó)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對(duì)稱(chēng)性一直很高，并繼續(xù)呈上升趨勢(shì)；而近年來(lái)，最為顯著的變化是以中日為代表的大國(guó)間的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對(duì)稱(chēng)性的顯著提高，因而為東亞更深層次的貨幣合作奠定基礎(chǔ)。鑒于此，本文認(rèn)為東亞區(qū)域貨幣合作應(yīng)適時(shí)調(diào)整為以“亞洲共同繁榮”為目標(biāo)，由過(guò)去的“危機(jī)推動(dòng)型”合作轉(zhuǎn)向以中日為代表的“大國(guó)推動(dòng)型”合作。

關(guān)鍵詞：最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論；東亞貨幣合作；沖擊對(duì)稱(chēng)性

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：F831.6 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：10035192(2012)03000107

The Research of East Asian Monetary Cooperation Based on

Symmetry of Economic Shocks

AN Hui， ZHAO Qing

(School of Economics， Dalian University of Technology， Dalian 116024， China)

Abstract:Regional monetary cooperation are always greatly concerned after every financial crisis. Asian financial crisis came to the birth of the Chiang mai initiative(CMI)， which is a cornerstone of the East Asian monetary cooperation as the regional assistance relief mechanism. And Chiang mai initiative multilateral mechanism(CMIM)was launched as a marking result of cooperation amid this crisis .Based on above facts， this paper compares the difference of East Asian symmetry of economic shocks to examine the new features and trends of monetary cooperation in East Asia. The results show that the symmetry of economic shocks among smaller economies of East Asia has been high and is still rising， and in recent years， the most remarkable change is that the symmetry of economic shocks among the great powers， represented by China and Japan， increases evidently， thus paving the way for East Asian deeper monetary cooperation. In view of this， this paper argues that East Asia regional monetary cooperation should timely set the goal as “East Asian coprosperity” and promote the cooperation to “great power impetus” by China and Japan from the past “crisis ’s impetus”.

Key words:optimal currency areas; East Asian monetary cooperation; symmetry of economic shocks

1 引言

20世紀(jì)90年代的東亞金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，加強(qiáng)東亞貨幣合作一直是東亞各國(guó)政策制定部門(mén)和理論界學(xué)者們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)之一。東盟與中日韓（“10+3”）于2000年簽署的區(qū)域性貨幣互換網(wǎng)絡(luò)的協(xié)議即《清邁協(xié)議》（CMI）是東亞貨幣金融合作取得的最為重要的制度性成果，它對(duì)于防范金融危機(jī)、推動(dòng)進(jìn)一步的區(qū)域貨幣合作具有深遠(yuǎn)的意義。而由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)又進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化了人們對(duì)貨幣區(qū)域合作的關(guān)注。此次金融危機(jī)期間，為了防止流動(dòng)性的沖擊，以美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為代表的雙邊貨幣互換協(xié)議的頻率和規(guī)模大幅上升；……