城市極端洪災應急群決策模型研究

摘 要：全球氣候變暖的因素導致近年來極端洪災頻頻發生，已成為影響我國社會經濟發展的重要問題。傳統的洪災應急決策只是由政府主導的行政命令式決策，無形當中剝奪了災害當中其他利益相關主體的決策權。異質性利益相關主體參與決策是實現極端洪災應急決策科學化與民主化的重要途徑，該類群決策具有與一般意義上的群決策不同的特征。結合某些利益主體決策時存在一定程度猶豫性的特點和可能存在的絕對自私策略選擇，本文有針對性地提出基于評價意見相似度的調整策略，建立了基于相似度調整的直覺模糊群決策模型和算法步驟。

關鍵詞：極端洪災；異質性利益主體；直覺模糊；群決策

中圖分類號：C934 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：10035192(2012)03007105

Study on Group Decision Model of Extreme Flood Disaster Emergency in City

TANG Run1，2， WANG Haiyan1，2， MA Shujian3

(1.School of Management Science Industrial Engineering， Nanjing University of Finance and Economics， Nanjing 210046， China; 2.Jiangsu Province Institute of Quality and Safety Engineering， Nanjing 210046， China; 3.College of Sciences， Nanjing University of Technology， Nanjing 210009， China)

Abstract:Extreme flood disaster happens frequently because of the influence of global warmer weather. It affects the development of society and economics. The decision of traditional flood disaster emergency is made by local government. And the decision right of other relative interest agent is deprived. Group decision which heterogeneous interest agents take part in will promote the democratization and scientific process in flood disaster emergency. The decision is different from the general group decision. Some agents may be hesitant and absolutely selfish in decision. This paper proposed control measure base on similitude degree. An intuitionistic fuzzy group decision model and arithmetic step are established， which based on similitude degree control.

Key words:extreme flood disaster; heterogeneous interest agents; intuitionistic fuzzy; group decision

1 引言

20世紀以來，自然現象變異表現突出，以全球變暖為主的氣候變化日益明顯，對自然災害尤其是洪水災害產生了巨大的影響：改變了洪澇災害發生的頻次和加劇了洪澇災害的損失強度，使得極端洪水或特大洪水頻繁發生，但目前我國城市的防洪規劃標準仍然偏低，大多只是針對抵御中小洪水設計的，而對于極端洪水事件的超標洪水，城市防洪規劃適應性在減弱，加之我國城市化進程速度的不斷加快，目前很多已經失去指導城市建設和發展的作用。另外，由于現代城市空間的立體化開發、城市對水電氣和交通等生命線工程依賴程度的加大、城市資產結構的復……