基于ZIP模型和Logistic模型估計(jì)的顧客滿意度、口碑推薦和新顧客購買決策關(guān)系研究

曹麗 李丹丹 李純青

摘 要：本文通過問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，檢驗(yàn)了顧客滿意度對(duì)口碑推薦進(jìn)而對(duì)新客戶購買決策的影響，模型中同時(shí)考慮了產(chǎn)品涉入度和情感承諾的調(diào)節(jié)作用以及顧客交流特征(口碑傳播者的專業(yè)性、關(guān)系強(qiáng)度、感知風(fēng)險(xiǎn))對(duì)新客戶購買決策的影響。結(jié)果表明：顧客滿意度對(duì)口碑推薦有顯著的正向影響；口碑推薦對(duì)新客戶購買決策有顯著的正向影響；產(chǎn)品涉入度在顧客滿意度和口碑推薦的關(guān)系中起著顯著的正向調(diào)節(jié)作用，但情感承諾的調(diào)節(jié)作用不明顯；口碑傳播者的專業(yè)性以及關(guān)系強(qiáng)度對(duì)新客戶購買決策有顯著的正向影響，感知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響不顯著。同時(shí)本文通過計(jì)算口碑推薦數(shù)量和口碑轉(zhuǎn)換概率從而預(yù)測(cè)出基于口碑推薦方式獲取新顧客數(shù)量。

關(guān)鍵詞：口碑推薦；顧客滿意度；新顧客購買決策； ZIP模型；Logistic回歸模型

中圖分類號(hào)：F713.50 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1003-5192(2012)04-0015-07

The Linkage between Customer Satisfaction, Word-of-mouth Referrals and New

Customer Purchasing Decision Based on ZIP Model and Logistic Model

CAO Li1,2, LI Dan-dan2, LI Chun-qing2

(1.Business Management College, Xian University of Technology, Xian 710048, China; 2.School of Economics & Management, Xian Technological University, Xian 710032, China)

Abstract:Based on the questionnaire, the paper analyzes the functional linkage between customer satisfaction, word-of-mouth referrals and new customer purchasing decision, in which product involvement and affective commitment are the moderators of the effects of satisfaction on word-of-mouth referrals and communicator characteristics (senders expertise, tie strength and perceived risk) influence new customer purchasing decision. The result shows that, firstly, customer satisfaction are significantly positive correlated with word-of-mouth referrals. Secondly, word-of-mouth referrals have a significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions. Thirdly, product involvement has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between customer satisfaction and word-of-mouth referrals, but affective commitment is not. Finally, senders expertise and tie strength have significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions, but the effect of perceived risk is not significant. The paper also predicts the number of new customers acquired based on word-of-mouth referrals by calculating the number and the conversion rate of word-of-mouth referrals.

Key words:word-of-mouth referrals; customer satisfaction; new customer purchasing decisions; ZIP model; Logistic model

1 引言

口碑推薦(Word-of-Mouth Referrals)是促進(jìn)產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)銷售的一種營銷方式，是關(guān)于產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)口頭的、人際的、非商業(yè)性目的的交流活動(dòng)［1］。越來越多的企業(yè)運(yùn)用口碑推薦這一營銷手段來推廣自己的產(chǎn)品。從金融服務(wù)業(yè)到汽車銷售業(yè)，從餐飲業(yè)到旅游業(yè)，口碑營銷這一方式在企業(yè)界變得越來越流行

［2,3］。有很多學(xué)者研究了口碑推薦對(duì)消費(fèi)者購買行為的影響。通過口碑推薦傳遞的顧客體驗(yàn)可以降低顧客購買決策的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性，從而影響口碑信息接收者的購買決策［4,5］。同時(shí)，Reichheld等的研究表明正面口碑可以有效地吸引新客戶、增加銷售收入［6］。……