采用均勻設(shè)計SP調(diào)查的出行方式選擇建模與敏感性分析

景鵬 雋志才 賈玲玉

摘 要：本文采用均勻設(shè)計的方法設(shè)計了關(guān)于出行方式選擇的SP調(diào)查方案，考慮到影響因素隨出行者和出行方式的變化有所差異，建立以不同出行方式為效用基礎(chǔ)項的條件logit模型，驗證了模型的有效性并對模型進(jìn)行了標(biāo)定，從多個角度對模型標(biāo)定結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析。最后計算了各種出行方式對于各種因素的彈性值，分析了方式選擇概率對于各種影響因素的敏感性。研究表明，小汽車出行方式對各種影響因素的敏感性較高，證明了從交通需求管理政策入手引導(dǎo)出行者從小汽車轉(zhuǎn)向其他出行方式的可行性。

關(guān)鍵詞：均勻設(shè)計；SP調(diào)查；出行方式選擇

中圖分類號：U491 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：1003-5192(2012)04-0075-06

Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Choice Based onUniform Design and SP SurveyJING Peng1,2, JUAN Zhi-cai1, JIA Ling-yu3

(1.Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China; 2.School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China; 3.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract:This paper designed the SP survey constructed with uniform design method. Considering the factors that may be differented with the travelers and travel mode, the Logit model for two types basic utility of travel choice was established. The Logit model was verified and calibrated. Afterward, the calibration results of the model are analyzed from various aspects. Finally, the elasticity values for a variety of factors were analyzed the sensitivity of travel choice probabilities. Research shows that the sensitivity of using car for various factors affected is higher. The result proved that it is feasible to guide travelers to choose other travel modes instead of driving cars by the traffic demand management policies.

Key words:uniform design; SP survey; travel mode choice

1 引言

為了調(diào)節(jié)交通系統(tǒng)的供需平衡，解決日益嚴(yán)重的交通擁擠和由此引發(fā)的環(huán)境污染等問題，交通領(lǐng)域的學(xué)者提出了交通需求管理的概念，其核心就是要通過誘導(dǎo)人們的出行來緩解交通擁擠［1］。主要內(nèi)容包括：優(yōu)化交通結(jié)構(gòu)，大力發(fā)展公交；實施交通一體化政策，實現(xiàn)各種交通方式的綜合運(yùn)用；進(jìn)行時間和空間上的交通調(diào)控等。因而，交通方式劃分及與之相應(yīng)的出行方式選擇模型的研究成為需求管理策略主要研究方向之一。但由于出行方式選擇涉及的因素多，加之出行者的習(xí)慣、喜好等難以測定的因素的存在，傳統(tǒng)的集計建模方法難以準(zhǔn)確描述出行者對出行方式選擇的過程［2］。非集計分析以實際產(chǎn)生出行活動的個人為單位，對調(diào)查得到的數(shù)據(jù)不進(jìn)行任何統(tǒng)計處理而直接用于建立模型［3］。……