Fitch: China Economy will Avoid Hard Landing

China’s economy will avoid a hard landing as the current slowdown is much less abrupt than during the global financial crisis four years ago， ratings firm Fitch said in a report on Oct. 22.

China’s GDP grew 7.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier， the National Bureau of Statistics said on October 18， down from 7.6 percent in the second quarter.

More positively， September’s retail sales saw the biggest year-onyear increase since March， although this may have been due to higher sales during the holiday period， while industrial production was up 9.2 percent year-on-year.

“China has scope for policy flexibility: we think fiscal stimulus will be modest while the labor market remains resilient， and the authorities are mindful of the risks of rapid credit growth — such as weakening the banking system. Nevertheless， the stimulus could still be sufficient to help raise growth towards 8 percent by year-end and support a rate of about 8.2 percent in2013，” the report said.

In Fitch’s September Global Economic Outlook， the company trimmed its expectations for China’s full-year GDP growth for 2012 to 7.8 percent from 8 percent， following the Q2 reading.