China Copper Demand to Be Robust

The slowdown of China’s entity economy has hurt the commodities to some extent. The industries of commodities are at the start of a harsh winter， and commodities like coal and steel are piling up. So is the copper.

Jiangxi Copper， China’s biggest copper smelter， painted a pessimistic view in its results statement， saying prices of the commodities the company produces “may be unlikely” to rise.

Restructuring in China’s copper smelting industries is set to continue due to the “possible downturn” in the country’s real economy， the company said.

Counter to the gloom expressed this week in earnings reports from many Chinese mills and smelters， the listed mining subsidiary of China’s biggest metals trader Minmetals， Minmetals Resources， stated an upbeat view in August that demand for copper is“robust” in China， reported by Financial Times on August 30.

Financial Times also reported that Andrew Michelmore， Minmetals Resources’ chief executive， said that fears over China’s slowing commodities consumption had been overblown， though he acknowledged that demand growth had slowed from last year.

“People are still buying phones， still using TVs， refrigerators and air conditioners，” he said， citing items that contain copper. “The total demand growth may not be as hot as it was a year ago but it is still there.”

Contrary to the weak decline of aluminum and zinc， the price of copper has been fluctuating in a narrow range， which is considered as the phrase of consolidation. Many experts show confidence of robust copper demand in the second half of this year.

Refined copper imports in the first seven months surged 67 percent to 2.14 million tons compared with a year earlier， customs data showed. Consumption growth was “very resilient，” in the first half， Max Layton， an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.， said in a July 25 report. An analyst from Everbright Securities Futures estimates that the yield of refined copper will increase significantly in the next four months. Copper will rise to $8，000 in three months and $9，000 in six months， according to Goldman， which forecast a pickup in China’s economy in the second half.

Looking back into the past， major factors that affect the demands include changes of economic structure， income level， natural resource endowment， technological transformation， limitations from policies， etc.

According to such analysis， the demands of coal decline because it is not environmentally friendly. Likewise， slower demand growth will probably curb demands and prices of the metal used to make cables and pipes， such as copper.

As to the consumption of endconsumers， the demand of copper is still lingering at a lower level， neither increasing nor deteriorating. However， no news is good news. Considering from a medium and long-term view， investment in electricity is still optimistic， according to Futures Daily on August 29.

What’s more， the government has urged more measures to support the economy. Projects like smart grid transformation in the regional economic development plan and industry plan have been introduced by the government， which can stir up the demands of copper to some extent. In addition， new policies relevant to commodities — such as real estate and housing policies — are expected to emerge after the leadership transition. Such stimulus from the policies is an important momentum and noticeable signal.

At present， the development in Western area of China attracts people’s attention， which will provide new impetus for copper demands.

In Shanghai， copper futures has been in backwardation for some time— which means that future prices are lower than current prices. Although backwardation is typically a sign of a tight market， analysts said uncertainty over the future was a bigger driver of the current backwardation with traders reluctant to book trades in advance， according to Financial Times. However， the backwardation is seen to have some degree of decline.

“Minmetals Resources is on the hunt to acquire more base metals assets around the world and believes the current global economic gloom may provide buying opportunities，” said Andrew Michelmore. Under such circumstances， it is more necessary and vital for companies to think over how to break out of this recession and benefit from the industry upgrading.