Obama in Myanmar

As the United States courts the Southeast Asian nation, where do relations stand between China and its neighbor? By Ding Ying

Reelected U.S. President Barack Obama paid a six-hour working visit to Myanmar on November 19.Chinese observers said the visit indicated the Obama administration will continue Washington’s Asia policy from previous years, which the United States refers to as a“rebalance.”

Renewed ties

Obama’s Myanmar visit was a classic example of his diplomatic style of appearing amiable and easy-going. His true intention,however, is to encourage Myanmar to move forward with a democracy modeled after the United States, said Gao Zugui, a professor with the Institute for International Strategic Studies at the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

Obama—the first sitting U.S. president to visit Myanmar—was accompanied by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.

In Yangon, Obama met with his Myanmar counterpart U Thein Sein and parliamentarian Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy. Obama said his discussion with U Thein Sein was a positive one, acknowledging the latter’s reform measures,which he said will bene fi t the development of relations bilaterally, regionally and internationally. Obama praised U Thein Sein for confronting the use of child soldiers and nuclear non-proliferation. For the fi rst time, Obama referred to the country as“Myanmar” rather than its previous name of “Burma.”

“The change in his language reflected Obama’s efforts to develop a more equal bilateral relationship,” Gao Zugui noted.

Relations between Myanmar and the United States improved after elected President U Thein Sein initiated a series of reforms since taking of fi ce in March 2011,such as releasing hundreds of political prisoners, signing ceasefire agreements with several ethnic armed groups, and holding parliamentary by-elections on April 1 this year, in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won a majority of the open parliamentary seats with Aung San Suu Kyi herself gaining a seat in the House of Representatives.

HISTORIC HANDSHAKE: Visiting U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Myanmar’s President U Thein Sein in Yangon on November 19

U Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi’s successive visits to the United States in September-October have opened a new chapter in bilateral ties since the reestablishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level on July 11 with Derek Mitchell, U.S. Special Representative and Policy Coordinator for Myanmar, assigned as the first U.S. ambassador to Myanmar in 22 years.

Furthermore, Washington offered an economic incentive to encourage the country’s “democratic process,” said Gao.Obama came to Yangon with an assistance project valued at $170 million. When Clinton visited Myanmar last year, she brought a deal worth $1.2 million. In May,the U.S. Treasury relaxed some sanctions on Myanmar to allow fi nancial transactions to support certain humanitarian and development projects in the country.

“It’s understandable and reasonable that Myanmar would keep a balance between two powers like China and the United States to realize its own national interests. And it’s a wise choice.”

—Song Qingrun, a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

Prior to Obama’s visit, Washington announced a further easing of the sanctions,allowing U.S. companies to do business and invest in Myanmar’s oil and gas sectors. Washington imposed sanctions on the Southeast Asian nation in May 1997,which were expanded over the years, under which U.S. investment and all imports from Myanmar were banned, assets of certain financial institutions in Myanmar frozen,and visa restrictions imposed on of fi cials of the Myanmar Government. U.S. state and treasury departments said the move was taken to support ongoing reform efforts in Myanmar, encourage “further change” and offer new opportunities for businesses in both countries.

“The United States tried to force Myanmar to hasten its political development,which may not be ful fi lled in accordance with U.S. expectations,” Gao pointed out.

Return to Asia

Considering Myanmar’s geographic location and its traditionally close relationship with China, foreign media state that Obama’s Myanmar visit was aimed at counterbalancing China. A report inThe Wall Street Journalsaid, “President Obama’s historic visit to Myanmar, marking his return to Asia only days after his reelection, is rooted in a strategic move to shape new relationships as part of a larger shadow-boxing match with China over in fl uence in the region.”

Chinese analysts believed that Obama’s intention was about continuing to deploy his rebalancing strategy in Asia.

Song Qingrun, a researcher on Myanmar studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said Obama’s Myanmar visit exempli fi ed the U.S.“pivot” to the Asia-Paci fi c region. The Obama administration believed that former President George W. Bush’s administration had put too much emphasis on counterterrorism while ignoring U.S. in fl uence in the Asia-Paci fi c, and that now is the time to resume U.S. in fl uence in the region.

“Washington recognizes that Asia is a region with emerging powers, like China,South Korea, India and even Russia. The rebalance actually has two goals: regaining U.S. dominance and counterbalancing emerging powers’ in fl uence in the region,”said Song.

Jia Xiudong, a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies,predicted Obama will allot more political,economic, military, security and strategic resources in Southeast Asia to fully carry out his rebalancing strategy. “Southeast Asia will be the biggest priority in the strategy,” Jia said.

Jia added that besides looking to establish a new partnership, Washington also hopes to cash in from the Asia-Pacific region’s rapid economic development. “Obama actually treated Myanmar as a gateway to enlarge U.S.in fl uence in Southeast Asia,” Jia concluded.

Good neighbors

Chinese observers unanimously claimed that Washington will not be able to undermine the China-Myanmar relationship. They argued that the United States would fail to duplicate the traditional brotherhood and friendship between China and Myanmar.

“Friendship between China and Myanmar has a historical basis and realistic benefits,”Song stressed. During World War II, the Burma Road was the only overland supply route for China. Myanmar, then known as Burma, established diplomatic relations with New China in 1950, less than a year after the founding of the People’s Republic.Residents in the two countries’ border areas have engaged in trading and intermarrying for thousands of years.

Myanmar has benefited from China’s rapid development in the past decades. In 2011, the bilateral trade volume reached$6.5 billion, seeing an annual increase of 46.3 percent. China’s non-financial direct investment in Myanmar that year was $460 million, increasing 41.4 percent over that in 2010.

“Just by measuring the economic bene fi ts,China can bring more to Myanmar than the United States,” Song pointed out. Statistics show that bilateral trade between Myanmar and the United States reached $293.64 million in the fi scal year 2011-12.

Song stressed that both Myanmar’s President U Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi made similar statements that developing relations with Washington does not target China, and the China-Myanmar relationship remains the most important bilateral relationship to Myanmar.“It’s understandable and reasonable that Myanmar would keep a balance between two powers like China and the United States to realize its own national interests. And it’s a wise choice,” Song said.

Myanmar feels the same way. Ko Ko Hlaign, Myanmar’s Chief President Advisor for Political Affairs, who headed a delegation of of fi cials, scholars and entrepreneurs to China in late October, stressed in his speech:“We are good partners, good friends and good neighbors. Times have changed. Presidents have changed. But the warm and close relationship between the two peoples and countries will never change.”