Japan’s Political War

The dissolution of the Japanese lower house triggers a new round of political discord By Ding Ying

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda had no choice but to dissolve the House of Representatives on November 16, following criticism of his economic and diplomatic policies during the past year. In the aftermath, a political fight is on in Japan’s highest levels of government.

Chinese observers analyze that it will be very dif fi cult for any single party to win a majority in the upcoming election on December 16,owing to Japan’s complicated political process.Furthermore, whoever comes out ahead will continue to face economic and diplomatic pressures in the midst of worsening relations between China and Japan.

Noda’s choice

The economic and diplomatic policies of Noda and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)have failed to satisfy the Japanese people. To avoid past humiliations, Noda declared that he had delivered on his promise to dissolve the House of Representatives, in a bid to rebuild people’s trust in politics.

Noda said problems stemming from the earthquake recovery and nuclear accident of 2011, as well as the struggling economy, are still not resolved completely. Whether to give up halfway or to fi nish the job will be decided by the country’s voters, he said.

“I dissolved the lower house because I pledged that I will stake my political life on carrying out the comprehensive reform of social security and rebuilding the tax system,and I lived up to my promise today,” he said at a press conference after the dissolution of parliament.

Noda’s decision was painful but strategic,because he hoped to choose a good time to ensure that the DPJ would get as many parliament seats as possible, said Liu Junhong,a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. This was the 24th dissolution of the lower house of the Japanese parliament since World War II.

In recent months, Noda’s approval rating has been on the decline. Before the dissolution,Noda’s approval rating had dropped to its lowest point since he took of fi ce. According to the latest poll released by theYomiuri Shimbunnewspaper on November 18, the approval rating of Noda’s cabinet was only 24 percent, while the disapproval rating hit 65 percent.

The DPJ has been the ruling party since August 2009, after which it produced a series of ambitious plans. During the past 40 months, Japan has been under the administration of three different DPJ prime ministers,and has ful fi lled only about 30 percent of its promises from the last election.

Pang Zhongpeng, a researcher on Japanese studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that Japan’s national strength has rapidly decreased during the DPJ’s administration. “Japan now has completely declined to a second-class country in the world,” Pang said.

Japan has undergone severe crises in the past 40 months, such as the earthquake in March 2011 and the following radiation leaks, which created huge economic losses and damaged the image of Japanese products’quality. Famous Japanese household electronics brands like Sharp, Sony and Panasonic saw declining sales, while the country’s national debt skyrocketed to 240 percent of its GDP, driving Japan’s economy to the edge of collapse. Right-wing forces and extreme nationalists have gained popularity. Moreover,the country’s hard-line diplomatic policies created tensions in the world, especially between Japan and its neighbors.

“Japan’s next prime minister must show some capability of reviving the country’s economy if he wants to stay in the position longer.”

—Pang Zhongpeng, a researcher on Japanese studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Noda’s sudden dismissal of the lower house was targeted at protecting the DPJ’s seats in the parliament, said Liu. Previously,the Noda administration has been wrestling with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)over the question of dissolving the parliament. In October, Noda listed three preconditions for dismissing the parliament: passing a special bond bill and an electoral reform bill, and holding a conference to discuss pension system reform. Liu added that as the parliament passed the bill of issuing deficit-covering national bonds on November 15, and the two major parties of Japan started discussing reforms, Noda’s preconditions were basically ful fi lled.

WELCOMED DISSOLUTION:Members of the lower house of the Japanese parliament applaud during a meeting in Tokyo on November 16.Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolved the chamber that day,paving the way for a December election

Japan’s future

Although the LDP is con fi dent about a historic opportunity ahead of the coming election,observers predicted that there is only a slight chance that a single party can win a majority in the election.

There are 480 seats in the lower house of the Japanese National Diet, 300 of which are elected from single-seat constituencies in fi rst-past-the-post contests. The other 180 are chosen by proportional representation from 11 multi-seat constituencies. In December,there will be over 1,100 candidates attending the election.

The two leading parties in Japan are the ruling DPJ and the largest opposing LDP.Meanwhile, former Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, known for his strongly nationalistic views, launched the new Sunrise Party on November 13, aiming to challenge the DPJ and the LDP in the House of Representatives election. Ishihara and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, head of the Japan Restoration Party, reached an agreement on November 17 to merge their new nationalist parties for the upcoming general election.

According to a poll by theYomiuriShimbunabout the proportional election of the House of Representatives, which was released on November 17, the LDP would gain 26 percent of votes, the DPJ 13 percent, the new“third force” 13 percent, with the other parties splitting the rest.

These ratings showed it will be nearly impossible for the DPJ to win the coming election. In a poll conducted in July 2009,it got a 42-percent approval, while the LDP only had 23 percent. Meanwhile, Noda’s dissolution of the lower house did not have the full support of the DPJ. By November 16,nine DPJ parliament members had quit the party, threatening the DPJ’s majority in the lower house. Moreover, some DPJ parliament members are planning to switch to the LDP.

“The DPJ division is even clearer, proving that the party’s internal cohesion is very weak. Without forming a common mind, it will be hard for the DPJ to compete with the LDP in the coming election,” said Pang.

The LDP is very optimistic about the coming election. “A historic battle has been launched,” said Shinzo Abe, former Prime Minister and head of the LDP.

Pang said that if the LDP can win an absolute majority of the lower house, which is over 260 seats, it will form an LDP cabinet.But if it gets only a relative majority (over 245 seats), it will have to form a coalition with another party or other parties. It will most likely choose its traditional ally, the New Komeito Party, which has been withstanding the DPJ together with the LDP during the past year.

Although recent polls showed that the LDP could gain the most seats in the election,the most likely outcome is that no party will take the majority.

While the DPJ’s failure looms ahead, it doesn’t mean that the LDP is going to be the fi nal winner, said Liu.

Pang believed the LDP’s challenge is from several emerging smaller parties, which are mostly conservative or right wing. The combination of these parties will steal the LDP’s votes, like the “third force.” “The LDP is hard pressed to gain the majority because of the scattered votes,” said Pang.

Observers agreed that whoever takes over Noda’s job will face major challenges.

Japan’s economy is in recession. The country’s GDP decreased 3.5 percent in the third quarter from the same period last year.The recent voluntary boycott of Japanese goods on the part of Chinese consumers over territorial disputes made the situation worse.

“Japan’s next prime minister must show some capability of reviving the country’s economy if he wants to stay in the position longer,” said Pang. He suggested the Japanese Government should strike a balance between domestic demand and export markets, adding that the next government must also realize that negative diplomatic relationships with its neighbors can deal a huge blow to a country like Japan, which heavily relies on exports.

In the past decade, Japanese leaders have changed so frequently that other countries’officials have complained they cannot remember Japanese high-level of fi cials’ names.Recently, many of the countries’ leaders have canceled scheduled meetings with Noda,believing it will be a waste of time to meet a prime minister who is going to step down.

“Unstable governments create unstable diplomatic policies,” said Pang. He predicted the next Japanese cabinet will issue new diplomatic policies quite different from those of the DPJ administration.

Chinese observers pointed out that if either the DPJ or LDP keeps a hard-line tone against China, the Sino-Japanese relationship will continue to suffer.