調查上海的房地產市場，分析經濟對房價市場波動帶來的影響

摘要：經濟對房價市場的影響是復雜并多元化的，這涉及到房地產市場的歷史發展和全球經濟變化對房價市場的影響。

關鍵詞：上海 房地產市場 經濟的

Abstract: The economic reasons for price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market are complex and various all the time due to its history of development of housing market and global economic impact.

Key words: Shanghai， housing market， economic.

Shanghai is the most important culture， industrial and commercial city in China. It has the fastest speed of development from 2000 to 2006. However， many economists have claimed that Shanghai city in China should be wary of signs of housing prices bubbles (Yue Shen， Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005). The economic reasons for price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market are complex and various all the time due to its history of development of housing market and global economic impact. There are several factors that result in price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market.

First of all， according to the nature of development， everything has its beginning， growth， mature and decline period. Shanghai housing prices arise almost six years from 2000 to 2006. It has been through the most exciting rapid growth periods. So it is the time for changing growth status to mature now. It is not a good sign that things develop too fast and perfect.

Secondly， according to Yue Shen， ‘Shanghai seemed to have a housing price bubble in 2003， representing a sizeable 22 percent (Yue Shen， Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005)’.Therefore， the government wants to avoid a collapse of the real-estate bubble， with investors unable to pay bank debts， leaving banks with huge amounts of bad loans. Therefore， it issues a series of regulations. In 2005， the government increases the interest rate and tightens the rules of real estate transactions. It decided that a transaction tax was imposed at the effective rate of more than five percent of the house transaction price for sellers who have owned their properties for less than two years .At the same time， Central Bank raised twice of interest rates on mortgages. This regulation has brought to a cool-down impact on Shanghai hot housing market and it the first time to have a negative sign of housing prices in 2006. (Yue Shen， Eddie Chi-man Hui and Hongyu Liu 2005)

Third， the vacant new housing is an important indicator for determining housing prices. The balance between supply and demand in the space market is very important A large vacancy stock indicates an over supply in the housing market and will decrease the average selling price of new housing. Some reports said the supply and demand relationship of Shanghai housing market has been changed now. It shows a large vacancy trend of Shanghai housing market now. The research report predicts that the supply of newly built commercial houses in Shanghai will exceed the demand for them in the future 3 years (Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative conference). So Shanghai housing prices will slightly go down in the future.

Fourth， the disposable income of consumers also plays an important role of housing market. It shows the ability of people can afford the housing prices in the market. As mentions last paragraph the structure of housing finance and housing provisions has changed， the development of a mortgage finance system become crucial (Ling Hin Li， 1996). However， China still adopts the low-wage system that most wage-earners can not afford housing prices at the market level， especially living in such high standard city. It will result in many new departments can not be sold under this situation. This policy only benefit for the rich people and links close with social status of people. Therefore， the disposal income is uncertainty results in price fluctuation of Shanghai housing market.

Fifth， the 1998 Asian financial crisis is another reason for price fluctuation of Shanghai housing market. The Asian financial crises have big impact on many companies. Companies have bad performance that less possible to spend money on employee housing and it will result in deceasing in housing prices. Asian financial crisis does influence on housing prices of Shanghai， but only a small part (Jie Chen， Qianjin Hao， 2007). The reason for it because Shanghai has rapid economic growth and demands for urban land and new housing have increased rapidly， leading to rapid growth of housing prices.

Although many factors indicate the declines trends of housing prices of Shanghai from 2006， these factors are based on the strong intervention of government. The property prices of Shanghai would be expected to rise due to continued economic expansion without hampering. Furthermore， the foreigner investment will take some level of impact on price fluctuation of Shanghai housing market as well.

Shanghai is the eighth largest city in the world and it has been designated the future financial centre for China. It is one of the most exciting cities for both property investment and development. The property potential in Shanghai is enormous. Therefore， it is very important to understand the current state of housing market in Shanghai and the economic reasons for price fluctuation in this market. China is currently changing from a command economy to a market-based economy now. The whole housing market has a great revolution according to the change of policies of government. Shanghai housing market has a fastest economic growth from 2000 to 2006; it first time has a negative sign of housing prices in 2007. Most economists predict that housing prices of Shanghai will still increase in the future without government intervention. There are many factors that contribute to price fluctuation in Shanghai housing market.