Greece Starts the Dominos ?

Discussion about Greece’s secession from the Eurozone is officially put on the table. Several economists commented that if Greece secedes from the Eurozone， other countries in the same boat may follow suit， in which case stability of the EU will become impossible， global financial markets will be affected remarkably， and emerging markets like China also can’t be spared.

Greece’s secession from the Eurozone will trigger a chain reaction

Ting Lu， the chief economist in Greater China of Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that Greece’s secession from the Eurozone is a possible， but there is no exact timetable for it. Once Greece decides to secede from the Eurozone， it may be confronted with financial chaos and loss of investor confidence. Meanwhile， Greece’s secession will cause a chain reaction in the Eurozone， further deteriorating the debt crisis.

Pu Yonghao， the chief investment strategist in the Asia Pacific region of UBS Wealth Management predicts that in the next 12 months the probability of Greece’s secession from the Eurozone is about 20%~30%， and that Greece will still be very likely to secede in the next two or three years.

Haibin Zhu， the chief China economist in JP Morgan alleges that there is a probability of over 50% that Greek will secede from the Eurozone， and that Spain may be the next. Greece’s secession from the Eurozone will provide momentum for its economic growth in the short term， as the internal competitiveness will be gradually built up with the devaluation of its national currency. However， after the secession of Greek， other countries may follow suit， which can be a disaster for the Eurozone.

China’s exports may be affected adversely

Zhu Haibin， the chief China economist in JP Morgan reveals to Securities Times that according to internal research data， China’s exports to the Eurozone will decline by 7% with a decrease of 1% in European economic aggregate. Negative growth of European economy will have an extremely adverse impact on China’s exports.

Ting Lu points out that once the debt crisis in Europe exacerbates again and affects China’s exports adversely， China’s economic growth this year will be further hindered. China’s economy may continue to decline in the second quarter， and the quarterly Gross Domestic Product(GDP) will witness a year-on-year decrease from 8.1% to 7.6%.

Pu Yonghao also holds that Europe is a major exporter of China， and once happens， the negative growth in China’s exports to Europe will directly affect China’s economy; in terms of capital supply， as Eurobank has been providing credit supply to the Asia-Pacific region and Hong Kong， the credit funds will be withdrawn to Europe along with the de-leveraging of the Eurobank; if the debt crisis in Europe continues to deteriorate， it will encumber the development of the global financial markets and ultimately affect the stock market of the Asia-Pacific region.

Emerging markets may become new engines for economic development

Speaking of the future global economic situation， Pu Yonghao claims that the scenario of global economic growth is crystal-clear: Europe suffers a negative growth， and the European economy falls into a recession; the economic situation in the United States is relatively optimistic with an increasing rate of 2%~2.5%， but the fiscal contraction following this year’s presidential election will bring about uncertainties to next year’s economy; growth in emerging markets will be favored， but it’s not wise to intensively stimulate the economy because internal inflation pressures in China， wage increase pressure for instance， are still tremendous.

Jian Chang， Asia economist in Barclays believes: the global economy will bottom out in the next few months， and will slowly recover in the second half year; the U.S. economy will be all right on the whole with its decreasing unemployment rate， and gradually growing consumption and real estate markets; the Eurozone will be confronted with greater risks and its economy is bound to decline; as for the Asia-Pacific region， his prediction on China’s economic growth is still 8%~8.1%， and he is optimistic about the emerging markets. It is predicted that China’s export growth rate this year will be 10%， which is based on a 2% increase in exports to the United States and a negative growth of 0.4% to the Eurozone; in case of slower growth than predicted， China’s export growth rate may be single-digit.

American economists of Merrill Lynch indicate that the U.S. economy is recovering， but the pace is still very slow. The United States will be confronted with fiscal retrenchment resulting from expiration of tax cuts policy， which will have adverse impacts on the U.S. economy， thus this year the U.S. economy will increase in the first place and then decrease; the global economic growth engines are still China and other emerging markets， yet the emerging markets are not likely to be spared in case of severe recession in developed economies.