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中國低碳試點城市的碳排放現狀

2015-01-13 19:38:48宋祺佼王宇飛齊曄
中國人口·資源與環境 2015年1期

宋祺佼+王宇飛+齊曄

摘要

本文以國家發展和改革委員會公布的兩批低碳試點城市(共36個)為研究對象,基于其2005-2011年間的單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放數據總結其碳排放水平,從區域分布、經濟水平和人口規模三個方面分析了全國范圍內低碳試點城市的碳排放現狀。通過“十一五”期間碳減排成效和“十二五”期間碳減排目標兩個方面分析了低碳試點城市的碳排放現狀,并推測了低碳試點城市2015年的碳排放水平。研究顯示,“十一五”期間低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于全國平均水平。2011年低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于各城市所在省份的平均水平。低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放平均水平從東部到西部逐漸升高。人均收入高于全國平均水平的低碳試點城市中92%的城市的人均CO2排放高于全國水平。而隨著城市常住人口規模的擴大,試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放逐漸降低,人均CO2排放卻隨著城市常住人口規模的擴大呈U型分布,其中大型城市的人均CO2排放水平最低。同時通過與同類地區對比分析,研究表明試點城市的低碳工作成效和減碳目標普遍優于同類地區。除直轄市外,32個低碳試點城市中28個城市2010-2011年單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和2015年單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標高于所在省份。在城鎮化速度繼續增加和經濟總量保持上升的趨勢下,到2015年低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放雖然下降,但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趨勢。我國的低碳試點城市建設任重道遠。

關鍵詞低碳試點城市;碳排放;單位GDP的CO2排放;人均CO2排放

中圖分類號 ?F293文獻標識碼A文章編號1002-2104(2015)01-0078-05doi:103969/jissn1002-2104201501011

2010年,國家發改委確定了廣東、遼寧、湖北、陜西、云南五個省份以及天津、重慶、深圳、廈門、杭州、南昌、貴陽、保定八個城市作為第一批低碳試點省市。2012年又確定了海南省及包括北京、上海、石家莊等在內的28個城市作為低碳試點省市。兩批試點分布在全國24個省、自治區和直轄市,其中人口約占全國的185%,GDP約占全國的33%(基于2011年統計數據)。由于我國幅員遼闊,各地經濟水平、地理條件、能源資源稟賦、人文歷史等存在差異,各個城市有自身的低碳發展特征,很難用同樣的方法幫助所有的地區實現低碳發展。因此,分析總結各個低碳試點城市當前的碳排放水平,了解低碳試點城市的碳排放情況,對于開展因地制宜的低碳城市建設有重要意義。

1已有研究基礎

當前對于低碳試點城市建設的評估主要集中于低碳建設工作總結和城市碳排放影響因素測度兩個方面。莊貴陽總結得出低碳試點城市通過尋求地域平衡來獲得在同等地區的示范帶頭作用和形成自己獨特的發展思路,并從碳生產力、排放水平和資源稟賦三個方面比較了第一批低碳試點省市的優劣[1]。丁丁等通過研究低碳試點省市的工作進展,總結出當前低碳試點工作取得兩個進展和三個不足:建立多樣化的低碳發展保障與長效機制和因地制宜地探索不同發展模式;存在低碳發展認識尚未統一,低碳發展目標不夠先進和低碳發展的落實力度不夠[2]。在低碳試點城市碳排放影響因素測度上,劉竹等通過脫鉤理論分析了第一批低碳試點省份碳排放和經濟發展的關系,總結得出碳排放對經濟發展的依賴程度仍較高,在未來很長一段時間內將呈增長趨勢[3]。劉健等通過STIRPAT模型以第一批五個試點省份為對象分析了人口規模、城市化水平、富裕度、產業結構和能源強度對碳排放的影響,試圖總結這些省份的低碳發展路徑[4]。曹桂香以低碳城市南昌為例,將資源耗減價值、資源生態退化損失、環境降級損失以及資源環境改善收益等要素加入到GDP核算中測算低碳試點城市的綠色經濟水平[5]。

當前對低碳試點的現狀分析,多集中在對低碳規劃的總結、低碳經濟發展及其影響因素的探討上,以城市為單位、有大量數據支撐的研究都還十分缺乏。本文基于36個低碳試點城市的碳排放數據,分析評估碳排放現狀,摸清碳排放基礎,為政府下一階段的低碳試點工作開展提供依據和支撐。

宋祺佼等:中國低碳試點城市的碳排放現狀

中國人口·資源與環境2015年第1期

2低碳試點城市碳排放水平分析

本文在總結36個低碳試點城市的碳排放基本情況的基礎上,從區域分布、經濟水平和人口規模三個角度對低碳試點城市的碳排放現狀進行分析。

21低碳試點城市的碳排放水平高于全國平均水平

城市碳排放水平是城市低碳發展的前提和基石,清晰、準確地把握我國城市宏觀層面碳排放特征對我國政府出臺低碳發展規劃決策和地方制定低碳城市戰略具有非常重要的意義[6]。根據國家和各城市公布的2005-2010年的GDP數據、單位GDP能耗數據以及城市常住人口數據,“十一五”期間全國低碳試點城市的單位GDP CO2排放的平均水平為322 t CO2/萬元,高于全國306 t CO2/萬元平均水平;全國低碳試點城市的人均CO2排放的平均水平為996 t CO2/人,高于同期全國596 t CO2/人的平均水平。單位GDP的CO2排放平均水平和人均CO2排放量均高于全國平均水平。

22低碳試點城市地域分布平衡,具有示范性

不同地區的城市有不同的資源稟賦和低碳發展情況,碳排放評估需考慮地區差異,與同類地區比較更具有參考價值。以2011年為例,對東中西部的低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放平均水平和人均CO2排放平均水平與同地區省份的平均水平進行比較(地區生產總值按2010年價格)。東中西部的低碳城市2011年單位GDP的CO2排放分別為196 t CO2/萬元,282 t CO2/萬元和327 t CO2/萬元(見圖1),均高于各低碳試點城市所在省份的平均水平。東中西部低碳試點城市的人均CO2排放2011年分別是1334 t CO2/人,1143 t CO2/人和1202 t CO2/人 (見圖2),均高于各低碳試點城市所在省份的平均水平。同時可以看出,東中西部三個區域低碳試點城市的碳排放水平差異較大,從東部到西部逐漸升高。而這種情況的產生與我國當前的區域能源供需現狀相關。東部地區能耗低的一個重要原因是東部地區進口了大量的隱含能。也就是說,中西部的能耗高是由于它們生產了大量的高能耗產品,而這些產品大部分是為東部地區服務的,從經濟發達區域到經濟落后的地區呈現“碳轉移”現象[7]。

23低碳試點城市人均收入水平、人均CO2排放與全國情況一致

根據世界銀行2010年劃分不同國家和地區的貧富程度標準(按2010年年平均匯率折合1人民幣約等于667美元計算),人均收入小于28萬元為低收入城市,大于等于28萬元且小于86萬元為中等收入城市,大于86萬元為高等收入城市。可以看出,在人均GDP收入高中低的城市中均有低碳試點城市的分布,人均GDP收入高于全國平均水平(35萬元/人)的低碳試點城市有26個,除景德鎮人均CO2排放為667 t CO2/人和溫州人均CO2為666 t CO2/人,其余24個城市的人均CO2排放均高于全國平均水平(72 tCO2/人)(圖3)。

圖1分區域低碳試點城市2011年單位GDP的CO2排放情況

Fig1CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of lowcarbon pilot cities in different regions in 2011

圖2分區域低碳試點城市2011年人均CO2排放情況

Fig2CO2 emissions per capita of lowcarbon pilot cities in different regions in 2011

圖3按人均收入低碳試點城市2011年人均CO2排放情況

Fig3CO2 emissions per capita in lowcarbon pilot cities

in

2011 based on different income levels

24在不同人口規模城市中均有低碳試點城市分布

我國當前尚未對城市規模在立法層面有清晰的界定,根據《中國中小城市發展報告(2010):中國中小城市綠色發展之路》中對城市規模的分類,即城市常住人口在50萬以下為小型城市,50-100萬為中等城市,100-300萬為大型城市,300-1 000萬的為特大城市,1 000萬以上的為巨大城市[8]。以2011年低碳試點城市常住人口數據劃分城市規模,其中小型城市只有金昌,占低碳試點城市的28%,中等城市有大興安嶺和濟源,占低碳試點城市的56%,大型城市包括池州和南平等共7個城市,占低碳試點城市的194%,特大城市包括秦皇島和武漢等共18個城市,占低碳試點城市的50%,巨大城市包括深圳、北京和重慶等在內共8個城市,占低碳試點城市的222%(表1)。

從表2可以看到,隨著城市常住人口規模的增大,城市的單位GDP的CO2排放降低,小型城市的單位GDP的CO2排放均值最高,為464 t CO2/萬元;巨大城市的單位GDP的CO2排放均值最低,為188 t CO2/萬元。而城市的人均CO2排放卻隨著城市常住人口規模的增大呈U型分布。大型城市人均CO2排放水平達到最低值,為1021 t CO2/人。通過分析可以看到,城市的單位GDP CO2排放隨著城市人口規模的擴大而減少,城市的人均CO2排放并沒有隨著城市人口的增加而降低。

3同類地區低碳試點城市的碳排放分析

31試點城市的低碳工作成效普遍優于同類地區

低碳試點城市政策始于2010年,測算2010-2011年間低碳試點城市和所在省份的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度,評估其政策執行效果和低碳工作成效并進行比較分析。除去北京、上海、天津和重慶4個直轄市,其余32個低碳試點城市2010-2011年單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度普遍優于所在省份的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度。32個試點城市中有28個城市的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度高于所在省份,占總數的875%。其中景德鎮,遵義,烏魯木齊,武漢和大興安嶺分別比所在省份單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度高出2447%,2043%,1944%,1912%和1817%,而金昌,晉城,保定和呼倫貝爾分別低于所在省份單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度的909%,033%,018%和003%。

32試點城市減碳目標普遍高于同類地區

根據國家“十二五”節能減排綜合性工作方案和各低碳試點城市的“十二五”節能減排綜合性工作方案、“十二五”經濟社會發展規劃和“十二五”能源發展規劃等文件,分析低碳試點城市和所在省份2015年單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標。除4個直轄市,大部分低碳試點城市(28個)的2015年單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標高于所在省份,占32個城市的875%。其中金昌、南昌、深圳、南平和昆明分別比所在省份公布的2015年單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標高出10%,7%,4%,3%和3%,鎮江,廣元,保定均低于所在省份2015年單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標的1%,而廈門則低于福建省目標的6%。

4低碳試點城市碳排放的未來發展趨勢

結合各城市“十二五”規劃中對人口、城鎮化、經濟發展水平的目標設定,以2011年為基準年,計算2015年低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放的情況。到2015年,低碳試點城市單位GDP的CO2排放平均水平為220 t CO2/萬元,比2010年平均水平降低了063 t CO2/萬元。所有低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放均較2010年有所下降。2015年36個低碳試點城市中北京、深圳、廣州的單位GDP的CO2排放最低,分別為100 t CO2/萬元,104 t CO2/萬元和121 t CO2/萬元,濟源、烏魯木齊和金昌的單位GDP的CO2排放最高,分別為438 t CO2/萬元,429 t CO2/萬元和371 t CO2/萬元。

根據低碳試點城市“十二五”國民經濟發展規劃,預測2015年單位GDP的CO2排放情況。到2015年,同“十一五”期間城市本身的單位GDP的CO2排放相比均有下降。結合各低碳試點城市的“十二五”發展規劃以及城鎮化速度,在國家戰略統籌GDP年增長率為7%的速度下,2015年低碳試點城市的人均CO2排放均上升。盡管各低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放逐步下降,但是由于經濟總量保持上升趨勢,人均CO2排放仍呈上升趨勢。低碳試點城市2015年人均CO2排放平均水平從2010年的1157 t CO2/人增長到1358 t CO2/人,其中贛州、廣元和大興安嶺人均CO2排放在36個城市中最低,分別為291 t CO2/人,479 t CO2/人和640 t CO2/人,濟源、烏魯木齊和蘇州人均CO2排放在36個城市中最高,分別為2453 tCO2/人,2848 t CO2/人和3037 t CO2/人。

5總結和展望

首先,36個低碳試點城市“十一五”期間的單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放與全國平均水平相當。低碳試點城市分布于東、中、西部三個地區,人均GDP收入水平分布于低、中和高三個層面,人口規模分布于小型、中等、大型和特大及巨大五個類別。低碳試點城市在全國不同區域、不同經濟水平和不同人口規模的城市中具有代表性。其次,低碳試點城市2010-2011年的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和“十二五”期間單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標均普遍優于同類地區。低碳試點城市的低碳工作成效在同類地區呈現出先進性。最后,在城鎮化速度繼續增加和經濟總量保持上升的趨勢下,到2015年低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放雖然下降,但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趨勢。低碳試點城市建設任重道遠。

(編輯:劉照勝)

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Study on Present Status of Carbon Emissions in Chinas Lowcarbon Pilot Cities

SONG QijiaoWANG YufeiQI Ye

(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

AbstractIn this study, we investigated CO2 emissions levels in 36 cities, which are national pilot cities for lowcarbon development announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Based on CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita data during 2005-2011, we summarized the carbon emissions level of the lowcarbon pilot cities and evaluated the carbon emissions from the perspective of regional distribution, economic development and urban population scale Their decrease range of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period and future targets of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘12th Five Year Plan Period was compared with provinces where the cities locate Furthermore, the paper measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 Results reveal that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita of lowcarbon pilot cities were both higher than those of the national average level during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period Lowcarbon pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in 2011 were both higher than those of their comparable areas and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually rises from east to west 92% of the lowcarbon pilot cities whose per capita income were higher than the national average, have a higher CO2 emissions per capita than the national average With the increase of urban resident population scale, pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually reduced, nevertheless, their CO2 emissions per capita was ‘Utype distribution at the lowest point in large scale cities Results show that pilot cities lowcarbon performances and future carbon reduction targets are better than their belonged provinces Expect 4 Municipalities, there are 28 pilot cities whose decrease range of CO2 emission reduction and future targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2010-2011 were higher than their provinces This paper also measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 based on the population, urbanization and economy development goals in the “12th Five Year Plan” Period, with 2001 as the base year The result shows that with the growth of urbanization and economy, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of lowcarbon pilot cities would decrease, but CO2 emissions per capita levels are still on the rise It still has a challenge that those lowcarbon cities would undergone a high CO2 emission process

Key wordslowcarbon pilot cities; CO2 emissions; CO2 per unit GDP; CO2 per capita

5總結和展望

首先,36個低碳試點城市“十一五”期間的單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放與全國平均水平相當。低碳試點城市分布于東、中、西部三個地區,人均GDP收入水平分布于低、中和高三個層面,人口規模分布于小型、中等、大型和特大及巨大五個類別。低碳試點城市在全國不同區域、不同經濟水平和不同人口規模的城市中具有代表性。其次,低碳試點城市2010-2011年的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和“十二五”期間單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標均普遍優于同類地區。低碳試點城市的低碳工作成效在同類地區呈現出先進性。最后,在城鎮化速度繼續增加和經濟總量保持上升的趨勢下,到2015年低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放雖然下降,但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趨勢。低碳試點城市建設任重道遠。

(編輯:劉照勝)

參考文獻(References)

[1]莊貴陽.低碳試點城市低碳發展指標比較[J].中國建設信息,2010,(21):36-39.[Zhuang Guiyang Comparison of Low Carbon Pilot City Low Carbon Development Indicators in Carbon Pilot Cities[J] Information of China Construction, 2010,(21): 36-39]

[2]丁丁,楊秀.我國低碳發展試點工作進展分析及政策建議[J].經濟研究參考,2013,(43):92-96.[Ding Ding, Yang Xiu Analysis on Chinas Lowcarbon Pilot Cities Development and Policy Recommendations[J] Economic Research Reference, 2013,(43): 92-96]

[3]劉竹,耿涌,薛冰,等.中國低碳試點省份經濟增長與碳排放關系研究[J].資源科學,2011,(4):620-625.[Liu Zhu, Geng Yong, Xue Bing, et al Relationships between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions for Lowcarbon Pilot Provinces in China[J] Resources Science, 2011,(4): 620-625]

[4]劉健,王潤,孫艷偉,等.中國低碳試點省份發展路徑研究[J].中國人口·資源與環境,2012,22(3):56-62.[Liu Jian, Wang Run, Sun Yanwei, et al Analysis of Development Path for Lowcarbon Pilot Provinces in China[J] China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012(03): 56-62]

[5]曹桂香.低碳試點城市的綠色GDP核算研究[D]. 北京:中國地質大學(北京),2013.[Cao Guixiang Research on Green GDP Accounting of Lowcarbon Pilot Cities[D]Beijing: China University of Geosciences (Beijing),2013]

[6]譚峰.低碳城市規劃:中國城市低碳發展的探索[J].環境經濟,2011,(6):68-69.[Tan Feng Lowcarbon City Planning: Exploration of Chinas Lowcarbon Cities Development[J] Environmental Economy, 2011,(6): 68-69]

[7]Qi Y, Li H, Wu T Interpreting Chinas Carbon Flows[J] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 2013, 110(28): 11122-11221

[8]中小城市綠皮書·中國中小城市發展報告(2010):中小城市綠色發展之路[M].北京:社會科學文獻出版社,2010.[Annual Report on Development of Small and Mediumsized Cities in China(2010)[M]Beijing:Social Science Academic Press, 2010]

Study on Present Status of Carbon Emissions in Chinas Lowcarbon Pilot Cities

SONG QijiaoWANG YufeiQI Ye

(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

AbstractIn this study, we investigated CO2 emissions levels in 36 cities, which are national pilot cities for lowcarbon development announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Based on CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita data during 2005-2011, we summarized the carbon emissions level of the lowcarbon pilot cities and evaluated the carbon emissions from the perspective of regional distribution, economic development and urban population scale Their decrease range of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period and future targets of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘12th Five Year Plan Period was compared with provinces where the cities locate Furthermore, the paper measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 Results reveal that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita of lowcarbon pilot cities were both higher than those of the national average level during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period Lowcarbon pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in 2011 were both higher than those of their comparable areas and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually rises from east to west 92% of the lowcarbon pilot cities whose per capita income were higher than the national average, have a higher CO2 emissions per capita than the national average With the increase of urban resident population scale, pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually reduced, nevertheless, their CO2 emissions per capita was ‘Utype distribution at the lowest point in large scale cities Results show that pilot cities lowcarbon performances and future carbon reduction targets are better than their belonged provinces Expect 4 Municipalities, there are 28 pilot cities whose decrease range of CO2 emission reduction and future targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2010-2011 were higher than their provinces This paper also measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 based on the population, urbanization and economy development goals in the “12th Five Year Plan” Period, with 2001 as the base year The result shows that with the growth of urbanization and economy, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of lowcarbon pilot cities would decrease, but CO2 emissions per capita levels are still on the rise It still has a challenge that those lowcarbon cities would undergone a high CO2 emission process

Key wordslowcarbon pilot cities; CO2 emissions; CO2 per unit GDP; CO2 per capita

5總結和展望

首先,36個低碳試點城市“十一五”期間的單位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放與全國平均水平相當。低碳試點城市分布于東、中、西部三個地區,人均GDP收入水平分布于低、中和高三個層面,人口規模分布于小型、中等、大型和特大及巨大五個類別。低碳試點城市在全國不同區域、不同經濟水平和不同人口規模的城市中具有代表性。其次,低碳試點城市2010-2011年的單位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和“十二五”期間單位GDP的CO2排放節能目標均普遍優于同類地區。低碳試點城市的低碳工作成效在同類地區呈現出先進性。最后,在城鎮化速度繼續增加和經濟總量保持上升的趨勢下,到2015年低碳試點城市的單位GDP的CO2排放雖然下降,但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趨勢。低碳試點城市建設任重道遠。

(編輯:劉照勝)

參考文獻(References)

[1]莊貴陽.低碳試點城市低碳發展指標比較[J].中國建設信息,2010,(21):36-39.[Zhuang Guiyang Comparison of Low Carbon Pilot City Low Carbon Development Indicators in Carbon Pilot Cities[J] Information of China Construction, 2010,(21): 36-39]

[2]丁丁,楊秀.我國低碳發展試點工作進展分析及政策建議[J].經濟研究參考,2013,(43):92-96.[Ding Ding, Yang Xiu Analysis on Chinas Lowcarbon Pilot Cities Development and Policy Recommendations[J] Economic Research Reference, 2013,(43): 92-96]

[3]劉竹,耿涌,薛冰,等.中國低碳試點省份經濟增長與碳排放關系研究[J].資源科學,2011,(4):620-625.[Liu Zhu, Geng Yong, Xue Bing, et al Relationships between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions for Lowcarbon Pilot Provinces in China[J] Resources Science, 2011,(4): 620-625]

[4]劉健,王潤,孫艷偉,等.中國低碳試點省份發展路徑研究[J].中國人口·資源與環境,2012,22(3):56-62.[Liu Jian, Wang Run, Sun Yanwei, et al Analysis of Development Path for Lowcarbon Pilot Provinces in China[J] China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012(03): 56-62]

[5]曹桂香.低碳試點城市的綠色GDP核算研究[D]. 北京:中國地質大學(北京),2013.[Cao Guixiang Research on Green GDP Accounting of Lowcarbon Pilot Cities[D]Beijing: China University of Geosciences (Beijing),2013]

[6]譚峰.低碳城市規劃:中國城市低碳發展的探索[J].環境經濟,2011,(6):68-69.[Tan Feng Lowcarbon City Planning: Exploration of Chinas Lowcarbon Cities Development[J] Environmental Economy, 2011,(6): 68-69]

[7]Qi Y, Li H, Wu T Interpreting Chinas Carbon Flows[J] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 2013, 110(28): 11122-11221

[8]中小城市綠皮書·中國中小城市發展報告(2010):中小城市綠色發展之路[M].北京:社會科學文獻出版社,2010.[Annual Report on Development of Small and Mediumsized Cities in China(2010)[M]Beijing:Social Science Academic Press, 2010]

Study on Present Status of Carbon Emissions in Chinas Lowcarbon Pilot Cities

SONG QijiaoWANG YufeiQI Ye

(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

AbstractIn this study, we investigated CO2 emissions levels in 36 cities, which are national pilot cities for lowcarbon development announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Based on CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita data during 2005-2011, we summarized the carbon emissions level of the lowcarbon pilot cities and evaluated the carbon emissions from the perspective of regional distribution, economic development and urban population scale Their decrease range of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period and future targets of CO2 emission reduction during the ‘12th Five Year Plan Period was compared with provinces where the cities locate Furthermore, the paper measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 Results reveal that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita of lowcarbon pilot cities were both higher than those of the national average level during the ‘11th Five Year Plan Period Lowcarbon pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in 2011 were both higher than those of their comparable areas and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually rises from east to west 92% of the lowcarbon pilot cities whose per capita income were higher than the national average, have a higher CO2 emissions per capita than the national average With the increase of urban resident population scale, pilot cities CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually reduced, nevertheless, their CO2 emissions per capita was ‘Utype distribution at the lowest point in large scale cities Results show that pilot cities lowcarbon performances and future carbon reduction targets are better than their belonged provinces Expect 4 Municipalities, there are 28 pilot cities whose decrease range of CO2 emission reduction and future targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2010-2011 were higher than their provinces This paper also measured the CO2 emission levels of lowcarbon pilot cities in 2015 based on the population, urbanization and economy development goals in the “12th Five Year Plan” Period, with 2001 as the base year The result shows that with the growth of urbanization and economy, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of lowcarbon pilot cities would decrease, but CO2 emissions per capita levels are still on the rise It still has a challenge that those lowcarbon cities would undergone a high CO2 emission process

Key wordslowcarbon pilot cities; CO2 emissions; CO2 per unit GDP; CO2 per capita

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