Deficit or profit?

Since the very beginning of 2015， the entire filament weaving market has not yet seen significant improvement， while the “interim overcapacity” label has been still going hand in hand and is difficult to turf out in the short term. For the industry， the industry cycle regularity is gradually weakened， and the myth of “a cycle per three years” is broken. Moving into the trough period of the fourth year， prospects for 2015 are still not optimistic.

In the first quarter， the textile industry presented a performance of “non-busy in busy season， slacker in off-season”. Faced with continuing sluggish state of the industry， the textile enterprises have been actively adjusting the product structures in order to find a balance among inventory， capital， and products in an effort to adapt to the market changes. However， the tepid market brought up the overall weak consolidation.

Raw materials market： Hard to see the “warmth” of the traditional peak season

PTA market

In recent years， PTA market as a whole has presented a downward trend. From the first quarter of each year， PTA market in the first quarters of 2013 and 2014 was in a downward trend with volatility， but that of 2015 did not quite work out like the previous. PTA prices in the first quarter of 2015 were still in a downward trend. PTA S mean value was 4498 yuan/ton in the first quarter of 2015， within the disk mean PTA， dropping by 876 yuan/ton compared with the fourth quarter of 2014， down by 16.3%， while the PTA B mean value was 602 USD/ton， declining by 129 USD/ ton compared with the fourth quarter of 2014， a decrease of 17.6%.

In terms of cash flow， in the first quarter the PTA manufacturers cash flow was basically at a loss， especially after February， the losses were gradually enlarged， followed by excess supply and multiple negative repression； therefore， PTA prices went lower step by step， and the manufacturers suffered more losses.

As for PTA production capacity， PTA excess supply problems have been continuing to suppress the PTA market since the beginning of this year. The domestic PTA average load was maintained at over 70%

From the downstream demand， after the Spring Festival， the downstream polyester manufacturers saw mediocre production and marketing. The polyester manufacturers stocking of raw materials before the Spring Festival is enough for one or two months or so. Entering April， polyester manufacturers saw a reduction of raw material inventory as well as gradually higher production and marketing. Currently， the polyester factory inventories remain at a lower level， but the restart of several sets of polymerization spinning devices in April has to some extent boosted PTA demand for raw materials.

Polyester filament market

In the first quarter of 2015， polyester filament forwarded in twists and turns， presenting an overall weak performance.

It is hard to find highlights in the polyester filament market in the first quarter of 2015. Its market trend in January was rising after restraining， with an overall price core trend as high after low； however， the overall showed somewhat decline. In February， there was no large volatility in the overall market with fewer changes in the price center range； rising and declining were mixed. The March market was still in the main tone of a downward trend， showing a state of slight rising accompanied with slump.

Although polyester filament yarn was overall in profit during the first quarter of 2015， its profit margins were significantly reduced at the end of March compared with early January. It is mainly because the raw materials saw little change due to the vibrating adjustments， while the polyester fiber prices suffered more dropping with less increasing； therefore， the higher costs weakened the profitability of polyester manufacturers.

March and April are the traditional peak season， but the peak season this year is somewhat weakened over the previous years influenced by the environmental downturn. Despite the recent active orders from downstream weaving manufacturers， their stocking conditions are affected by the uncertain costs. The polyester fiber stock has been at a higher level since the beginning of 2015.

Prediction about the Q2 performance： To rise

The whole environment presented a weak performance in the first quarter， and PTA prices saw a vulnerable adjustment. However， entering the second quarter， the downstream market demand will see a slow recovery， resulting in more enthusiasm in purchasing of raw materials. Furthermore， influenced by the just happened PX plant explosion in Zhangzhou， Fujian Province， the rising costs play an obvious supporting role of PTA. Therefore， it is predicted that PTA core prices are expected to move up. In terms of polyester fibers， in spite of the poor performance in the first quarter， the beginning of the second quarter may enjoy an overall increase in the raw material market， which will exert significant effects on the polyester fiber market. Stimulated by the cost， the downstream demand will turn for the better.

The 10th ACFIF Conference

The 10th Asian Chemical Fiber Industries Federation （ACFIF） Conference will be held in Beijing on May 14-15th， 2015. China Chemical Fibers Association on behalf of the Chinese chemical fiber industry will host the session. This is the second time that this conference is held in mainland China after many years. The biannual event is the high-end professional platform for Asian chemical fiber industry. It was first held in 1996 in Japan and then held by the nine members in turns in alphabetical order. The nine members include： China， India， Indonesia， Japan， Republic of Korea， Malaysia， Pakistan， Chinese Taipei and Thailand.

The upcoming session will mainly discuss the developing trends of chemical fiber industries in major Asian countries and regions； the key development directions of Chinese textile and chemical fiber industry during the 13th“Five-year Program” period （2016-2020）； medium- and long-term forecast on chemical fiber supply and demand and structural changes of global and Asian chemical fiber industries； development and application of new fiber materials； the supply and demand of chemical fiber raw materials and market outlook； status-quo of FTA and its impact on textile and chemical fiber industry； countermeasures for chemical fiber industry to cope with the hard times， etc. By then， the nine members of ACFIF will organize high-level delegations to participate in the conference. Vietnam and Bangladesh are also invited to attend the conference as observers.