好運如何“從天而降”？

By Carlin Flora

在這個世界上，我們總期待自己能走運，有時候我們還會把希望寄托在某些事物上，比如說四葉草，傳說能給擁有它的人帶來好運。那么好運到底是從天而降、他物所予還是能刻意制造呢？讓我們在這篇文章中來找答案吧。

In 1992， Archie Karas， then a waiter， headed out to1 Las Vegas. By 1995， he had turned $50 into $40 million， in what has become known as the biggest winning streak in gambling history.2 Most of us would call it an instance3 of great luck， or we might say of Archie himself： “What a lucky guy！” The cold-hearted statistician would laugh at our superstious notions， and instead describe a series of chance processes that happened to work out for Karas.4 In the larger landscape where randomness reigns， anything can happen at any given casino.5 Calling its beneficiaries lucky is simply sticking a label on it after the fact.6

To investigate luck is to take on one of the grandest7 of all questions： how can we explain what happens to us， and whether we will be winners， losers or somewhere in the middle at love， work， sports， gambling and life overall？ As it turns out， new findings suggest that luck is not a phenomenon that appears exclusively in hindsight， like a hail storm on your wedding day.8 Nor is it an expression of our desire to see patterns where none exist， like a conviction that your yellow sweater is lucky.9 The concept of luck is not a myth.

Instead， the studies show， luck can be powered by past good or bad luck， personality and， in a meta-twist10， even our own ideas and beliefs about luck itself. Lucky streaks are real， but they are the product of more than just blind fate.11 Our ideas about luck influence the way we behave in risky situations. We really can make our own luck， though we dont like to think of ourselves as lucky—a descriptor that undermines other qualities， like talent and skill.12 Luck can be a force， but its one we interact with， shape and cultivate. Luck helps determine our fate here on Earth， even if you think its ultimate cause divine13.

Luck is perspective and point of view： if a secular man happened to survive because he took a meeting outside his office at the World Trade Center on the morning of 11 September 2001， he might simply acknowledge random chance in life without assigning a deeper meaning.14 A Hindu might conclude he had good karma.15 A Christian might say God was watching out for him so that he could fulfill a special destiny in His service. The mystic could insist he was born under lucky stars， as others are born with green eyes.16

Traditionally， the Chinese think luck is an inner trait， like intelligence or upbeat mood，17 notes Maia Young， a management expert at the University of California， Los Angeles. “My mom always used to tell me， ‘You have a lucky nose， because its particular shape was a lucky one， according to Chinese lore18.” Growing up in the American Midwest， it dawned on Young that the fleeting luck that Americans often talked about19—a luck that seemed to visit the same person at certain times （“I got lucky on that test！”） but not others （“I got caught in traffic before my interview！”）—was not equivalent20 to the unchanging， stable luck her mother saw in her daughter， her nose being an advertisement of its existence within.

“Its something that I have， thats a possession of mine， that can be more relied upon than just dumb luck21，” says Young. The distinction22 stuck with her. You might think someone with a lucky nose wouldnt roll up their sle eves to work hard—why bother？—but heres another cultural difference in perceptions of luck.23 “In Chinese culture，” she says， “hard work can go hand-in-hand with being lucky. The belief system accommodates24 both.”

On the other hand， because Westerners see effort and good fortune as taking up opposite corners of the ring， they are ambivalent about luck.25 They might pray for it and sincerely wish others they care about “Good luck！” but sometimes they just dont want to think of themselves as lucky. Theyd rather be deserving26. The fact that they live in a society that is neither random nor wholly meritocratic makes for an even messier slamdance between “hard work” and “luck”.27 Case in point： when a friend gets into a top law or medical school， we might say： “Congratulations！ Youve persevered. You deserve it.” Were she not to get in， we would say： “Acceptance is arbitrary. Everyones qualified these days—its the luck of the draw.”28

1. head out to： 起身去，出發去。

2. winning streak： 連勝紀錄，一連串的勝利； gambling： 賭博。

3. instance： 實例，例證。

4. 鐵石心腸的統計學家們會嘲笑我們的迷信觀念，在他們看來，這只是發生在卡拉斯身上的一連串偶然事件。statistician： 統計學家；superstious notion： 迷信觀念；chance process： 文中指“偶然事件”；work out： 產生結果，成功。

5. 縱觀由隨機性主導的那些場合，任何事情都有可能在任一賭場發生。landscape： 風景，景觀，文中指“場合”；randomness ： 隨機性，隨機事件；reign： 支配，主宰；given： 特定的，指定的；casino： 賭場。

6. beneficiary： 受益人；label： 標簽。

7. grand： 大的，重要的。

8. 新的調查研究結果表明，運氣并不像婚禮上突如其來的冰雹，事后才有所覺悟。exclusively： 僅僅地，專有地； in hindsight： 事后看，之后的跡象表明；hail storm： 冰雹風暴。

9. 運氣也不是我們對于自身愿望的表達，即去尋求一個其實根本不存在的規則，比如堅信你的黃色毛衣能給你帶來好運。conviction： 信念，主張。

10. meta-twist： meta 在希臘語里指“在……之后”，twist指重要轉折和機緣，在這里meta-twist指的是某次重大轉折之后。

11. 生活中確有好運當頭，但是這不僅僅是天命所為。lucky streak： 一連串幸運的事，好運當頭，和前面winning streak可對應；blind fate： 無法控制的命運。

12. 我們的確可以給自己制造好運，雖然我們通常不認為自己很幸運，因為這一說法本身就削弱了我們的其他品質，如天賦和技能。undermine： 削弱，損害。

13. divine： 天賜的。

14. perspective： 觀點，看法；secular： 俗界的，無宗教的； assign： 分派，賦予。

15. Hindu： 印度教徒；good karma： 善報。

16. mystic： 神秘主義者，神秘主義主張從外部世界返回到內心，在靜觀、沉思的心理狀態中與神或者某種最高原則結合；green eye： 嫉妒。

17. inner trait： 內在特征；upbeat： 樂觀的，快樂的。

18. lore： 學問，傳說。

19. dawn on sb.： 使某人開始理解；fleeting： 稍縱即逝的。

20. equivalent： 相等的，相當的。

21. dumb luck： 偶然的運氣，也有作品中譯為狗屎運。

22. distinction： 區別，差別。

23. roll up ones sleeves： 卷起衣袖（大干）；perception： 觀念，看法。

24. accommodate： 容納。

25. 另一方面，因為西方人把努力和好運看成是完全對立的，所以他們對運氣的心態是矛盾的。opposite corners of the ring： 競技場對立的兩個區，這里指完全對立的；ambivalent： 矛盾的，搖擺不定的。

26. deserving： 值得的，應得的。

27. meritocratic： 賢能統治的；messy： 凌亂的；slamdance：（伴隨搖滾樂）狂舞，文中引申為“搖擺不定”之意。

28. 如果她未被學校錄取，我們會說：“決定是否錄取是隨意的，現在每個人都有資格，這要看運氣。”arbitrary： 任意的，隨意的；the luck of the draw： 偶然性，運氣。