Uncertain Arbitration

by+Li+Zhonglin

On July 12， the temporary tribunal at The Hague announced its ruling on the South China Sea arbitration， which was initiated at the unilateral request of the Philippine government， ignoring history and facts to side with the Philippines and vote down Chinas South China Sea proposition including the ninedotted line. The Chinese government published a series of statements， solemnly declaring the award null and void and lacking binding force， and that China neither accepts nor recognizes it. Not only has the ruling damaged Chinas territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea， but it will sour ongoing bilateral negotiations between China and the Philippines.

Right now， the Chinese government insists on separate policies for the new Philippine government and the arbitration， respectively. On the arbitration， Chinas stance has been clear： The former Philippine government unilaterally brought the arbitration on the South China Sea， against International Law. The temporary arbitral tribunal has no jurisdictional rights， making the award completely null and void and lacking any manner of binding force. As for the dispute on territory and maritime delimitation， China wont accept any dispute settlement through a third party， nor will it accept any solution pressed on China.

Concerning the new Philippine government， China has shown good will to the new government. President Xi Jinping has frequently contacted Rodrigo Duterte， including congratulating him on his successful campaign for the presidency. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines have also expressed great optimism for the development of friendly Sino-Philippine relations.

Benigno Aquino III left the arbitration mess to his successor. The Chinese government will do its best to distinguish between moves of the two generations of the Philippine leadership and distancing the new Philippine government from the arbitration.

Nevertheless， the new government is still closely attached to the arbitration. They cant just avoid it. Domestically， President Duterte has to find a way to avoid criticism for compromising with China. Internationally， he has to endure pressure from the United States. The Philippines will have no backer to bargain with China if it loses American support.

However， the new government has opportunistically considered using the award， favorable for the Philippines， as a chip in its negotiations with China. Therefore， the fruit of the arbitration， be it chip or thorn， will be decided by the attitude of the new government.

President Duterte has expressed many times that he would like to negotiate with China and repeatedly stressed that he is not prepared for a war. By avoiding “mocking China or showing off" once the arbitration fell in his favor， he can smoothly meet Beijings hope to “suspend dispute and join hands for development.” It is definitely possible for both sides to go back to the table for bilateral negotiations at their convenience if the Philippines doesnt overreact.

After the farcical arbitration， both sides will eventually get back to negotiating table. However， the award has undoubtedly played spoiler just as Beijing and Manila were preparing enthusiastically to conduct direct dialogue. It doesnt have to be an obstacle if the Philippine president is willing， from the bottom of his heart， to restore the relationship between the countries.

Still， the great endeavor to resume dialogue between China and the Philippines does not need interference from outside countries like the United States and Japan. As some Philippine scholars have suggested， bilateral negotiation between the two countries will clearly encourage other ASEAN countries cooperation， so the United States will have less reason to manipulate affairs in this region.

A non-binding hearing on a two-party dispute of the South China Sea between China and the Philippines has already ballooned into a chess game between major powers. The Philip- pines has been relegated to pawn， while the United States and Japan lead a clamp down on China.

After the announcement， the United States has pushed time and again for both sides to follow the judgment， which will undoubtedly intensify legal foundation for Americas enforcement of “freedom of navigation.” Japan has constantly pressured ASEAN countries to turn on China since the award， threatening withholding of economic support. Even worse， Japan has been attempting to incite G7 countries to promulgate a joint statement to urge China to “respect the award on the South China Sea dispute.”

As a result of the proceedings， China is facing the challenges from the United States and Japan instead of the Philippines. The directly involved country， the Philippines， has to take cues from the reactions of the United States and Japan on whether to keep its promise of “no provocation” and “soft landing” when formulating a response.

Before the hearing ended， China launched a one-week South China Sea military exercise in the water region of Xisha Islands rather than more complicated Nansha Islands. The event was directed not only at the Philippines but also to deter the United States and Japan， which have attempted to agitate the situation in the South China Sea in the wake of the award. China intended to express its determination to maintain its maritime rights and interests.

The game the former Philippine government played by instigating unilateral arbitration was not intended to solve the dispute with China nor strengthen peace and stability on the South China Sea. The move was a blow to Chinas territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. However， the award will hardly influence Chinas interests in the South China Sea or legitimate rights in the region. China will never give up its territory in the South China Sea due to the award， which will only fuel the countrys will and determination to defend its rights in the South China Sea.