China-U.S. Relations: Manage and Control Strategic Competition

By Wang Qilong, China Newsweek

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China-U.S. Relations: Manage and Control Strategic Competition

By Wang Qilong, China Newsweek

Difficult to avoid strategic competitions between China and the United States with the development of China

Before Trump arrived in Beijing, CNN described the difficulty of his visit to China with "high risks". The economic and trade deficit, and the Korean nuclear issue are all the issues that the Trump Administration announced in high profile to be pushed forward with the assistance of the Asian five countries before his departure for the visit to them.

But from November 8th-10th, Trump’s trip to China was surprisingly smooth, and its interaction with President Xi Jinping even seemed full of "tender feelings". Trump has repeatedly expressed his personal commendations and gratitude to Xi Jinping, thus the meetings between the two presidents in April this year in the United States continue to play a role as in a "chemical reaction".

During Trump's visit to China, the commercial contracts and two-way investment agreements signed between China and the United States involve a total amount of up to US$253.5 billion, so the U.S. trade deficit with China is alleviated somewhat. "This is indeed a miracle," Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan described the long list as such in the bilateral economic and trade history. Even with the thorny issue of Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, China and the United States also reached some consensus, reaffirming their commitments to achieving a comprehensive, verifiable and irreversible goal of denuclearization of the Peninsula, and rejected North Korea's status as a nuclear power.

For the most attractive "historic successful visit" of the Trump’s 12-day Asian tour, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations former president Cui Liru attributes it to the Chinese well-conceived itinerary for President Trump’s visit, and the strategic leading role played by the heads of state diplomacy in development of relations between the two countries.

"State visit +"

Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai, in a media interview on October 30th, revealed that China received President Trump and his party in line with "state visit +", i.e. in addition to the routine itinerary for state visits, including inspection of honor guards, formal talks and hosting state dinner, and there is some special arrangements by the Chinese side, such as a visit to the Museum of Imperial Palace, etc..

On the one hand, we need to ensure that the top leaders of the two countries have enough time to carry out strategic communication and dialogue at the highest level, which is crucial for development of bilateral relations. On the other hand, we also hope that President Trump and his family and escort will have more opportunities to learn about China's history, culture and understand the Chinese people better, and we will ensure opportunities for them as much as possible, Cui Tiankai said.

The "state visit +" was also providing an opportunity for Trump to enjoy the Chinese hospitality. With Xi Jinping meeting the press together on November 9th, he specifically mentioned that the visit to China was "impressive and unforgettable."

For this visit, Trump also showed his considerate preparations. At tea time during the Imperial Palace visit, he used the tablet computer to show to Xi Jinping and his wife a video of his granddaughter Arabella singing a Chinese song "the Land of Hope" and reciting Three Character Classic and poetry in Chinese.

The Trump family was openly fascinated by the Chinese culture showing a needs diplomacy toward China. Even in the selection of U.S. ambassadors, Trump designated Terry Edward Branstad, many years friendship with Xi Jinping, and former governor of Iowa, a U.S. major agricultural state, hoping to push forward the agenda of reducing trade deficit with China.

At the end of last June to take up his post, Branstad from home in Iowa brought a combined painting, which draws the scene of both Xi Jinping meeting with Branstad during a visit to the Kimberley farm in Iowa in the year 2012, and Xi Jinping's father Xi Zhongxun meeting with Rey, then the Iowa governor, leading a delegation on a visit to the United States, and there is also a scene of the vast expanse of farmland in Iowa.

This painting, named "two interesting stories," is now hanging in a prominent position on the wall of the Executive Office of the U.S. Embassy in China. On the eve of Trump's visit to China, Branstad held a small press conference at the U.S. Embassy. When China News Weekly reporter asked him about the origin of the painting, Branstad appeared very interested. He rose from his seat and went to the front of the picture, detailed every scene in the painting.

Ambassador Branstad treasures his long-term established friendship with President Xi Jinping, and also knows the role played by the long-term friendship. He describes the two meetings and 9 calls between President Trump and President Xi Jinping as "unprecedented".

“質量安全與成本支撐雙底線”是醫(yī)院成本管理理論體系的原則，“雙底線”原則進入了第一版《全國公立醫(yī)院成本核算管理辦法》。其在強調醫(yī)院質量安全投入的同時不能觸及成本可支撐的底線，否則將造成醫(yī)院基本運行難以為繼的嚴重后果；反之，在講究醫(yī)院成本控制與節(jié)儉理念的同時，不能超越質量安全底線，否則將偏離公立醫(yī)院辦院方向，損害醫(yī)院運行根基。

Balancing trade between China and the United States

The friendly relationship between Branstad and China seems to have indeed benefited the Trump Administration. The 34 commercial contracts and two-way investment agreements, worth US$ 253.5 billion, signed by the two countries this time include two procurement agreements or letters of intent concerning China's import of soybeans from the United States, worth US$1.6 billion and US$3.4 billion respectively. This is a continuation of China-U.S. "100 day plan", and China has further expanded the imports of American agricultural products.

Energy projects cooperation is the largest item in this bilateral economic and trade agreements. China's National Energy Investment Refco Group Ltd and West Virginia, the U.S. signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement on the shale gas industrial chain development demonstration project, worth US$ 83.7 billion, which is the largest single agreement in terms of monetary value in this round of contracts-signing. Zhou Shijian, a senior researcher at the Sino-U.S. relations study center of Tsinghua University said in an interview, shale gas as non-renewable energy, opening energy market of oil and gas involves national security considerations to a large extent, both sides of investment involved will be very cautious, and to have reached the agreements means both sides have a great resolve.

Regarding the projects and sum signed by the Chinese and American businesses, Chinese Commerce Minister, Zhong Shan, said at a briefing on November 9th that it has not only created a record of Sino-U.S. economic and trade cooperation, but also set a record in the history of world economic and trade cooperation. Some media analysis believe that, according to the World Bank's statistics in the year 2016, US$253.5 billion is equivalent to annual GDP of Chile, or Finland or others, accounting for 1.4%. of the U.S. 18-trillion dollar economy.

On the eve of departure for Asia, Trump also publicly stated that the U.S. trade deficit of up to $347.0 billion is "embarrassing" and "terrible". During his campaign for U.S. president, he frequently accused China on trade issues, claiming that "China has plundered a lot of job opportunities in the United States", and has threatened to include China in a currency manipulator and impose high tariffs on products exported to the United States from China. But in Beijing attending the Closing Ceremony of the Sino-U.S. Entrepreneur Dialogue, Trump criticized the previous administration for failure to turn around the deficit.

Although the uncertainty of Trump himself is relatively large, yet, there is a confinement of uncertainty, even if his so-called 'exit doctrine' is selective about the few withdrawals. Qin Yaqing, President of China Foreign Affairs University, told China News Weekly by saying that if Trump really practices "the United States First", then it would be impossible for him to carry out his campaign promises and make the U.S. economy grow without cooperation with China.

In addition to this long list in extensive areas related to the Belt and Road construction, energy, chemical industry, environmental protection, medicine, culture, infrastructure, smart city and other fields, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang also released the results of other economic cooperation, according to China's schedule and roadmap for expanding opening-up, including substantially liberalizing the market excess for financial sectors, such as banking, securities and insurance sectors, and gradually reducing automobile tariffs. Within the free trade pilot areas before June 2018, unfold pilot projects on lifting the restrictions on foreign capital shares for special vehicles and new energy vehicles. Meanwhile, the two sides will also maintain communication on the Sino-U.S. annual plan of economic cooperation or the medium - and long - term cooperation plan.

Manage and control strategic competition

During his Asian trip, in addition to economic and trade issues, Trump also mentioned the North Korean nuclear issue many times. On the morning before flying to China, he made a speech in the South Korean Congress. Trump not only criticized the North Korean regime's willful development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile projects, but also criticized North Korea's human rights issues in length. He also warned North Korea, "don't underestimate us. Don't try us." "We will defend our common security, our common prosperity and our sacred freedom."

Branstad also said that, before the urgent threat posed by the North Korean nuclear issue, trade issue can only be regarded as the next important issue. Since Trump took office in January this year, the frequency of North Korea's nuclear missiles tests have been accelerated and remarkable progress has been made. On September 15th, North Korea launched a ballistic missile flying over Japan, which then landed in the waters near Hokkaido. The South Korean military estimates that the longest range of the missile flight is about 3700 kilometers. This also means that Guam, the U.S. territory in the Pacific, is already within the range of the North Korean attack. At the beginning of September, North Korea had conducted the sixth nuclear test, claiming that detonated nuclear bomb is developed by North Korea itself. During his visit to Japan and South Korea, Trump and the leaders of Japan and South Korea agreed on the "maximum pressure" on the North Korea. Japan and South Korea have also introduced new unilateral sanctions against the DPRK.

From the official information, China and the United States have reached a consensus on the North Korean nuclear issue. At the meeting with the press together with Trump, Xi Jinping pointed out that the two sides reiterated their firm commitment to the denuclearization of the peninsula and the maintenance of the international nuclear non-proliferation system. The two sides will be committed to resolving the Peninsula nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiation, and are willing to work together with the parties concerned to explore ways to achieve a long-term security in the Peninsula and the Northeast Asia. And Trump said, "we agree not to copy many of the past failures. We agree that it is necessary to fully implement all UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea and increase economic pressure until North Korea abandons its reckless and dangerous road.

Branstad is optimistic about the joint response of China and the United States to the North Korean nuclear issue. He pointed out that China and the United States have made substantial achievements in coping with the crisis and promoted relevant sanctions against North Korea. But he still believes that more efforts should be made.

In Cui Liru's view, Trump focused on coordination with the allies in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue on this trip, and will help stabilize the situation through dialogue with China. "In case of crisis, how to prevent misjudgment is to communicate closely." Cui Liru told China News Weekly that bilateral relations between China and the United States have long gone beyond the bilateral category, and also involve regional and global issues. After China's development, regional issues also become more and more important in the Sino-U.S. relations, and chips are increasing, and the strategic competition between China and the United States is mainly in the Asia-Pacific region.

In his speech at the U.S. Air Force Base in Titian, Japan, on November 5th, Trump mentioned the Asia-Pacific policy of widespread concern. He said, we will seek new cooperation partners and opportunities to cooperate with our allies, and strive to establish an India-Pacific region based on freedom, justice and reciprocity. This is Trump's first public reference to the concept of "India-Pacific" too. Only 5 days later at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' informal meeting, Trump further talked about his idea, and hoped the summit to assure the India-Pacific region more free and open, and drew the paradigm outline for the India - Pacific Ocean region, i.e. a world composed of strong, sovereign, independent countries, which will see prosperity and development in peace and trade.

Behind this policy statement is the request to the United States to act in the light of U.S.-set standard rules. i.e. respect freedom of navigation and flight, respect the rule of law, respect sovereignty, free from coercion, and open market and private enterprises become the best mode for the entire region to increase prosperity and ensure freedom and independence for various regional countries. Tsinghua –Carnegie Center for Global Policy director Paul Haenle believes that the "free and open India-Pacific" strategy proposed by the Trump Administration can be seen as a sign that the United States is awakened in the face of China's growth. This strategy reflects the U.S. commitment to the maintenance of a rule-based order, the strengthening of its alliances and partnerships, and the promotion of good governance, market principles, democracy and human rights. The United States believes that the regions that respect these principles will ultimately be more secure, peaceful and prosperous.

However, the announced Trump's policy does not show a good prospect. University of International Relations professor Da Wei told China News Weekly that "India-Pacific" is an old phrase, the Obama Administration made the proposal but failed to make it a strategy, so the Trump Administration will possibly follow suite. "The Trump Administration's strategic thinking is not very strong, it will not set a goal for a certain region, and then carry it out, instead of adopting a comprehensive way of thinking, or thinking from big to small, from far away to near-by, but a thinking from a point to a point. Solve whatever crisis and whatever problems faced. Da Wei said, "India-Pacific" concept is currently pushed mainly by Japan, largely to hedge the Belt and Road Initiative. Compared with Japan's ambitions, the United States has not shown such strong momentum.

After Trump came to power, the steady development of Sino-U.S. relations exceeded many observers forecast. Da Wei attributes this largely to the two governments management and control of the Sino-U.S. relations. Having come to power, the Trump Administration pays more attention to the North Korean nuclear issues and economic &trade issue, and both sides are also promoting the North Korean nuclear issue even though it is a difficult issue.

Da Wei also quoted the U.S. National Security Council, former senior director for Asian Affairs Jeff Bader as saying that the Sino-U.S. relations is now "Too Big to Fail" . Both China and the United States have realized that if the Sino-U.S. relations are bad, and the competition will become the mainstream, which will cause serious consequences.

Cui Liru told China News Weekly that with development of China, the strategic competition between China and the United States is more difficult to avoid. Cui Liru advocated that China and the United States should "manage and control the strategic competition" and make sure it does not get out of control, and that's the bottom line. The second level is to make competition no longer become "zero sum competition again". The third level is to turn competition into a kind of interaction between two sides cooperation.

Comparatively speaking, the Chinese side is now more optimistic about the development of Sino-U.S. relations. However, the United States has two different opinions on this relations, which argue fiercely with each other. Cui Liru believes that China through its own role will affect the future direction of this bilateral relationship. "Regarding Trump's visit to China, China has played a good leading role. China has generally increased the positive chips, making this heads of state dialogue and state visit more positive." Cui Liru said.

(Excerpts of the article in China Newsweek, No. 43, November 2017, pp.20-23 )