我們離無人駕駛還有多遠？

⊙ By Yuki Noguchi

翻譯：思葦

我們離無人駕駛還有多遠？

⊙ By Yuki Noguchi

翻譯：思葦

Self-Driving Cars Could Help, but That’ll Take a While

I’m standing here watching rush hour build just outside Washington, D.C. It’s here I meet Hesham Rakha, an engineering professor at Virginia Tech with a lifelong interest in traffic: how it flows, and why it sometimes doesn’t.

It is, he says, extremely easy for human drivers to create traffic jams.

Hesham:One little touching of the brake can pull the whole system down.

A driver taps his brake,1)subsequentdrivers react, each braking harder than the next. Soon, traffic is2)crawlingfor no apparent reason.

Hesham:So if we can prevent that3)congestionfrom happening, not only will we let4)vehiclestravel faster, but we’ll also get more vehicles through our system.

Self-driving cars can5)synchronize. They communicate with one another, signaling6)disturbancesahead, avoiding7)backups.

Geoff Wardle teaches transportation design at the Art Center College of Design. He says he expects more people will share8)automatedcars, creating less demand for parking, or the cars might park themselves. Either way…

Geoff:A9)significantamount of traffic congestion is caused by people going round and round the same two or three blocks looking for that place to park.

That’s the positive side of self-driving cars. Here’s the negative.

Geoff:Human beings—we tend to like to try and10)cheatthe system to gain personal advantage.

In fact, Rakha’s research shows that once self-driving cars make their way onto our roads, it will take a while to see any improvements in traffic. The behavior of self-driving cars is predictable, but human behavior is not. So it’s not until there are a lot of driverless cars on the road that we might see some easing of congestion. Put another way, some humans are11)jerkswho try to cut in at the front of the line. Oh, you know who I’m talking about—Rakha certainly does.

Hesham:And they’ll cut across all the lanes and cause everyone12)delay, just because they want to save a couple of seconds. They break down the whole system.

Yuki(Reporter):When people ask you,“So are automated cars gonna reduce my commute time?” what do you tell them?

Hesham:I don’t know the answer. If the road is less congested, more people are gonna be attracted to that road, and so basically it will become congested because it’s supply and demand.

If traffic does improve, in other words, more cars and trucks are likely to use the road. And for us right now…

Yuki:Maybe we should get out of here before traffic gets bad.

Hesham:Yeah, I think it’s a good idea.

1) subsequent [5s?bsIkw?nt] adj. 隨后的，后來的

2) crawl [kr?:l] v. 爬，爬行

3) congestion [k?n5d?est∫(?)n] n. 交通堵塞，動詞形式為congest。

4) vehicle [5vi:Ik(?)l] n. 交通工具，車輛

5) synchronize [5sI?kr?naIz] v. 同步

6) disturbance [dI5stз:b?ns] n. 干擾，騷動

7) backup [5b?k?p] n. 阻塞

8) automate [5?:t?meIt] v. 自動化

9) signifcant [sIɡ5nIfIk?nt] adj. 重大的，顯著的

10) cheat [t∫i:t] v. 欺騙，作弊

11) jerk [d?з:k] n. <俚>笨蛋，混蛋

12) delay [dI5leI] v. 耽擱

看完本期最·專題的三篇文章，你有怎樣的感受或想法呢？找上幾個同學來開學習會吧（會前不妨收集更多的相關資料與素材），根據這三篇文章進行討論交流，談談你們對交通問題、城市治堵、綠色出行等方面的看法。

就在華盛頓特區外圍，我站在路邊看著高峰時段慢慢形成。我在這里遇到了希沙姆·拉哈——這位美國弗吉尼亞理工大學的工程學教授一生癡迷于交通問題：車流是怎樣運動的，為什么有時候會堵車。

他說，真人司機要造成交通擁堵真是太簡單了。

希沙姆：只要有人輕輕踩一下剎車，整個車流就可能因此減速。

一名司機輕輕踩下剎車，后面的司機就會做出反應，一個比一個踩得更起勁兒。很快，車流就會莫名其妙地慢下來。

希沙姆：因此，如果我們可以阻止這種情況的發生，不僅車流能夠移動得更快，交通系統也能承載更多車輛。

無人駕駛汽車可以同步校準，車輛之間能互相溝通，當前面出現干擾情況時會發出信號，從而避免塞車。

杰夫·沃德爾在美國藝術中心設計學院教交通設計。他希望以后有更多人會共享無人駕駛汽車，從而減少對停車位的需求，又或者這些車輛可以自己找到停車位。不管怎樣……

杰夫：有很大一部分的交通擁堵就是由于人們為了找地方停車，老在那么兩三個街區轉來轉去而造成的。

以上是無人駕駛汽車的優點，接下來該說缺點了。杰夫：人類吧，我們總想騙過系統，好給自己撈點好處。

事實上，拉哈的研究顯示，一旦無人駕駛汽車開上馬路，我們還要等上一段時間，才能看到這些新車能否改善交通狀況。汽車行為是可以預測的，人類行為則不然。所以，我們要等到路上出現很多無人駕駛汽車時，才可能看到擁堵問題有所減輕。換句話說，有些人特別渾，總想在車流中插隊。喔，你知道我在說誰——拉哈顯然知道。

希沙姆：他們會在所有車道間穿來插去，結果把所有人都耽擱了，就是為了給自己節省那么幾秒鐘的時間。這些人會把整個系統拖垮。

由紀（記者）：當人們問你無人駕駛汽車能不能縮短通勤時間的時候，你是怎么回答的呢？

希沙姆：我真的不知道。如果某條路沒那么擁堵，自然就會有更多人跑到那條路上，然后就會造成擁堵——因為這是一個供求關系。

換而言之，如果一條路的交通狀況確實得到改善，就會有更多汽車與卡車跑到這條路上來。而對于現在的我們來說……

由紀：也許我們應該在路況變糟之前早點離開。

希沙姆：是啊，這主意不錯。