The Supporting Role of Technology Foresight in Promoting Strategic Transformation of Industry

Bai Yu

(Chongqing Academy of S&T for Development,Chongqing,401123)

Abstract: The strategic transformation of industry enjoys a stage that various countries have experienced with many lessons in industrial development. As an analysis method of core general technology, technology foresight plays a supporting role in building a scientific and technological innovation system and guiding the promotion of industrial strategic transformation. Meanwhile, it ensures the efficiency, sustainability and enforceability of innovation and strategic transformation.

Keywords: Technology Foresight;scientific and technological innovation;strategic transformation

Introduction

Along with the evolution of the industrial revolution, from the age of steam to information technology, technological progress has brought unprecedented leap to mankind, and the integration of science and technology with economic development has been strengthened. Scientific and technological innovation has gradually become the first driving force for economic and social development; especially the high-tech industry has been regarded as the core strength of guiding industrial transformation. In addition, technology foresight has gradually grown into an important tool for exploring advanced technologies, grasping regional strategic needs, formulating the direction of technology and industrial development, and promoting scientific and technological innovation.Technology foresight plays a supporting role in national and regional technological innovation and industrial strategic transformation. Therefore, it appears to be particularly important to research the relationship between technology foresight and scientific and technological innovation as well as strategic transformation.

1 Connotation and Method of Technology Foresight

The British technology foresight experts Ben Martin and Irvine Johnson put forward the statement that technology foresight is to systematically probe into the study of science, technology, economy and social development over a long period of time in the future, aiming at strategic research fields and selecting general technologies that maximize the contribution to economic and social interests.[1]

Now, the available methods of technology foresight mainly include Delphi method,Brainstorming, requirement analysis, key technology selection, trend extrapolation, text mining, analytic hierarchy process, patent analysis, STEEP (social,technological, economic, ecological, political-legal),SWOT(strengths,weaknesses,opportunities,threats),decision tree,field trip,technology roadmap,etc.[2]

The Delphi method of the Rand Corporation-the US strategic research institution is the most famous method of all. It is also the most widely used method for technology foresight. The Delphi method is to collect the experts’opinions on a certain technology anonymously, and then reports the analyzing results to experts.After that,experts continue to put forward their opinions. Reputedly, most of the opinions tend to be centered, which leads to the final technology foresight that many experts have summarized many times.

2 Role of Technology Foresight in the Strategic Transformation of Industry

Joseph Schumpeter put forward the“innovation theory”, which is a new establishment of production function, realizing new combination of production factors and production conditions that has never been seen before. And it is introduced to the production system. Innovation generally consists of five aspects.The first is to create new products — a product that is not yet known to consumers;the second is to adopt new production methods — a method that is not actually known in this industry sector; the third is to open up new markets — a market for countries and those specific industrial sectors that have not yet entered; the fourth is to obtain new suppliers — a source of supply of raw materials or semi-finished products;the fifth is to build new organizational forms—a formcan create or break the original monopoly.[3]

Technology foresight is applied to the innovation process, based on future trends and development predictions, especially the ones used Delphi method.It focuses on the effective integration of innovation resources, establishing a long-term mechanism for technological innovation,which makes the innovation process sustainable, efficient and executable, along with the innovation results — an integration of multi-disciplinary,multi-industry and multi-field.

Technology foresight is the foundation of technological innovation.It provides key technologies or general technologies for innovation foresight in a bid to build a technological platform for innovation foresight and support systematic science and technology innovation. There are two kinds of technological innovations including continuous innovation and disruptive innovation. Continuous innovation can continuously improve products, while disruptive innovation produces new products from nothing. Technological innovation effectively improves the complex production links and equipment, adopting new production methods with higher efficiency. New products generated by innovation meet the consumption needs of more consumers, increase production efficiency and expand production. Based on technological innovation,both the demand side and the supply side simultaneously satisfy the expansion of the market.The change of consumption product and innovation requires new suppliers and expansion of the raw materials supply. Based on changes in products,production methods, consumer markets, and suppliers, new production management models and organizational forms are needed.

Most of the innovations have positive effects on enterprises, industries and countries, while enterprises, industries and countries have obtained irreplaceable products with leading advantages and core competitiveness through innovation, and established innovation barriers. Under the premise that innovation is constantly valued,people must also avoid the problem of innovation generalization.Innovation is bound by the foundation of science and technology development, economy, market, resource and environment. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize management of innovation, effectively integrate resources, and objectively analyze the basis of economy, science and technology, and industrial development so as to carry out reasonable and effective science and technology innovation.

Nikola Kondratyev and Schumpeter’s economic long wave theory believes that the long period of the economy is caused by technological innovation activities represented by the industrial revolution.Each long period includes an industrial revolution and a proliferation process, corresponding to the emergence of emerging industries and the decline of old industries.Technological innovation promotes the development of emerging industries. Then, through the diffusion and flow of technology among various industries, it develops into a leading industry, as a leading industrial group, and affects the entire national economy at the end.

Schumpeter believes that industrial innovation refers to technological innovation as the core and innovation entities work together to realize technological inventions and industrial applications,thereby achieving breakthroughs in industry and substantial improvement in corporate competitiveness. In a broad sense, industrial innovation refers that the main body of industrial innovation (government, enterprises, etc.) takes advantage of social resources and capabilities for emerging industries, making the original industry as the leading position in a certain region or obtaining breakthrough development, so as to achieve a qualitative leap of innovation activities in the development process of the industry through institutional innovation, technological innovation,organizational innovation, environmental innovation and innovation portfolio.[3-4]

The strategic transformation is based on the adjustment of industrial structure and also on industrial innovation with technology innovation as the core. Technology foresight helps explore the appropriate national economic background, the current foundation of science and technology development, and technological innovations in line with global technology development trends.

2.1 Identify the Direction of Industrial Strategic Transformation

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic development has made tremendous progress under the impetus of industrialization,urbanization and globalization. However, with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,the report of the 19th National Congress has pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. Technological innovation and strategic transformation are imminent. Getting rid of path dependence,industrial structure transformation,scientific and technological innovation development boosts the core ideas in the replacement of new and old development models. Technology foresight provides direction for scientific and technological innovation and strategic transformation. Besides, it avoids blindly pursuing the latest general technology that is not suitable for China’s conditions, and can comprehensively consider various factors to avoid waste of resources introduced by backward technological innovation, giving full play to China’s advantages. In combination with the current development situation and the scientific and technological foundation, China will select the core technology fields that are most beneficial to the national society and economic development. It also owns the most extensive market and strong competitive advantages in order to make rational and effective use of innovation development resources.

2.2 Ensure the Continuity of Strategic Transformation

The development of science and technology is changing with each passing day, and there is a sudden change in the international situation.Technological innovation and strategic transformation are not a one-time task. They need long-term and continuous nature. With the development of the economic situation and science and technology, key core technology of each stage has changed.Establishing a technology foresight system to ensure long-term and sustained technical foresight work is conducive to the sustainable development of the country. Japan began its nationwide technical foresight in 1971 and then held it once every five years.Ten technical foresights have been held so far,and each technical foresight has provided the direction for the key core technologies for the next 15-30 years. During the past 40 years, in order to achieve better prediction results,Japan has also been constantly improving the technology foresight method and management system.[5]

2.3 Maintain the Efficiency of Innovation

Technological innovation leads the way to the industry and scientific and technological innovation,while industry and technological innovation drive strategic transformation. The prepositional effect of technological innovation determines that the key technology is the core link of the whole process. The technology foresight brings about the efficiency improvement of the whole process.

At this stage, technological innovation and strategic transformation are not the upgrading and adjustment of any discipline or industry, but the system engineering resulting from the integration of several disciplines and industries. The technology foresight integrates resources through the construction of platforms to gather experts and industry leaders of various disciplines.The wisdom of professional engineers and other professionals can not only increase the accuracy of technology foresight, but also integrate the wisdom, capital,equipment and other resources scattered throughout the country.Through technology foresight,China will achieve rational optimization and efficient integration of scientific and technological innovation resources and improve overall innovation competitiveness.

2.4 Enhance the Execution of Technological Innovation and Strategic Transformation

Technology foresight is only the first step of technological innovation and strategic transformation.Industrial strategic transformation is grand system engineering.It is not a single government,enterprise,university, or research institute that can promote it,but needs to form a system of combining production,education, study and government. Foresight is the beginning of the link and plays a role in the integration of all parties. The communication and cooperation platform established by technology foresight connects key technology-related institutions and forms a core project technology execution team through the government’s overall management.It not only clarifies the relevance of the team and technology,but enhances the execution of the team.

3 Conclusion

The technology foresight has formed a systematic strategic plan for core key technologies in developed countries as well as a continuous and efficient innovation system based on technology foresight, guiding industrial development and strategic transformation of industry.Multi-disciplinary, multi-industry wisdom integration and practical resource integration can ensure the sustainability of innovation processes,and reduce the risk of technological exploration and the cost of technological innovation for predictable industry development and strategic transformation of industry so as to form a competitive advantage.

Japan has formed a large-scale technology foresight system. The state-level technology foresight has been carried out ten times for 40 years, and the number of participating experts is between 3,000 and 8,000.It mainly relies on the government’s emphasis on technology foresight. The Japanese government provides sufficient policy, manpower and financial support, forming a technological innovation culture that links up and down and responding to Japan’s“national strategy of technology”.