南豐縣近60年冬季極端最低氣溫特征及影響因子

摘要? 利用南豐國家氣象觀測一級站1957年12月至2018年2月大氣探測資料，分析南豐縣近60年冬季極端最低氣溫特征及影響因子，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：南豐縣冬季極端最低氣溫除少數(shù)年份出現(xiàn)在2月份外，多數(shù)年份出現(xiàn)在上年12月至當(dāng)年1月，尤其是當(dāng)年1月份。冬季極端最低氣溫平均值為-3.9℃、最低值為-10.8℃、最高值為0.4℃。從20世紀(jì)60年代到21世紀(jì)10年代，南豐縣冬季極端最低氣溫年際相關(guān)不顯著，年代均值呈直線上升趨勢;冬季日最低氣溫≤-4.0℃累計天數(shù)年際相關(guān)不顯著，年代均值呈直線下降趨勢，相關(guān)系數(shù)均達(dá)極顯著水平。1958—2017年的60年中，有27年冬季未出現(xiàn)日最低氣溫≤-4.0℃天氣。南豐縣冬季極端最低氣溫，與上年3月最小相對濕度（X1）、5月上旬平均最高氣溫（X2）、10月減3月極端最低地面溫度（X3）、（2月下旬+8月上旬+8月下旬+9月中旬+9月下旬）降水量-（3月下旬+9月上旬）降水量（X4）等因子相關(guān)顯著;與組合因子X（X2+X3+X4-X1）相關(guān)極顯著。

關(guān)鍵詞 南豐縣;冬季;極端最低氣溫;特征;影響因子

中圖分類號：000 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：2095-3305（2018）06-047-03

DOI： 10.19383/j.cnki.nyzhyj.2018.06.022

Characteristics and Influ encing Factors of Extreme Minimum Temperature in Winter of Recent 60 Years in Nanfeng County

HE Shou-ren（Nanfeng County Meteorological Bureau， Nanfeng， Jiangxi? 344500）

Abstract The characteristics and influencing factors of the extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County were analyzed by using the data of atmospheric detection from December 1957 to February 2018 in Nanfeng national meteorological observation station. The results were as follows： except for a few years in February， the extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County occurred from December last year to January of that year， especially in January of that year.The average temperature of extreme minimum temperature in winter is -3.9℃， the minimum value is -10.8℃， the highest value is 0.4℃. From 1960s to the 10s of 21st century， the interannual correlation of extreme minimum winter temperature in Nanfeng County was not significant， and the mean value of the year was rising in a straight line. The interannual correlation of the cumulative days of daily minimum temperature（≤-4.0℃） in winter was not significant， the mean age was decreased， and the correlation coefficient reached a extremely significant level. During the 60 years from 1958 to 2017， there were 27 years did not appear daily minimum temperature≤-4.0℃ in winter. The extreme minimum temperature in winter in Nanfeng County was significantly correlated with the minimum relative humidity （X1） in March last year， in early May the average maximum temperature（X2） in October March， reducing extreme minimum ground temperature（X3），（late February+early August+late August+ mid-September+late September） precipitation-（late March+early September） precipitation（X4）， was very significantly correlated with the combination factor X （X2+X3+X4-X1）.

Key words? ?Nanfeng County; Winter; Extreme minimum temperature; Influence factor

南豐縣位于江西省東部、撫州市南部，地處116°09′～116°45′E，26°51′～27°21′N，屬中亞熱帶季風(fēng)氣候區(qū)。由于太陽輻射等原因，南豐縣每年都有不同程度的暴雨洪澇、高溫干旱、低溫凍害等災(zāi)害性天氣出現(xiàn)。南豐蜜桔是南豐縣特產(chǎn)，有1 300多年的栽培歷史，它以皮薄核少、汁多化渣、酸甜適口、風(fēng)味獨特而馳名中外，是南豐農(nóng)業(yè)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)，撫州市農(nóng)業(yè)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，江西省的著名優(yōu)質(zhì)品牌農(nóng)副產(chǎn)品，列入全省重點發(fā)展的十大農(nóng)業(yè)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。

南豐縣冬季極端最低氣溫就像是一把雙刃劍。……