New Changes and Prospects of the Current Security Relations among Major Countries

By Meng Xiangqing

CPAPD Executive Council Member and Professor with the School of National Security, PLA National Defense University, Major General

The relationship among major countries is the framework of the world architecture, which decides the trend of the world architecture to a considerable extent.The security relations among major countries are the most core,sensitive and important part of the relations among major countries, and in a sense are also the barometer of the relations among them.It is almost 30 years since the end of the Cold War, compared with the previous 20 years,a basic fact is obvious and is beyond any doubt that the security relations among major countries have entered a new stage of instability and uncertainty, and the intensifying competition and confrontation.The new changes in the security relations of major powers and their future trends are not only related to the trend of the world architecture,but also to world peace and development.

I.The competition and confrontation in the current security relations of major countries is the main characteristic

For quite a long period after the end of the Cold War, relations among major countries were relatively stable.There are both cooperation and competition among major powers, with cooperation as the main stream on the whole.With the increasing common security threats and the expanding common security interests, extensive and close security coordination and cooperation among major powers have become normal.In the post-Cold War, the security relations among major countries have basically gone through three stages.The first stage is the period of relative stability and coordination in the 1990s.The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the bipolar structure have brought both opportunities and challenges to the security relations of major powers.Although there were some major negative events in early 1990s, such as the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on China, the Taiwan Strait Crisis in the middle of 1990s, the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in the late 1990s, the NATO's eastward expansion on squeezing Russia's strategic space in the 1990s, and the Iraq war and the Kosovo war, etc.The major country relations witnessed twists and turns,but generally speaking, the general trend of the improvement of major power relations had not changed.The upgrading of dialogue and communication, and managing and controlling crisis to spiral in the security area is the mainstream.Cooperation and confrontation coexist, but cooperation is the main factor.

The second stage is from the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 to the 2016 U.S.general election of Trump as president.In a sense, this stage can be called the "honeymoon period" of security relations among major powers.The 9/11 terrorist attacks is a major turning point.The request for security cooperation among major powers was increasing, and the institutionalization of cooperation was increasing.The cooperation of major powers in non-traditional security fields,such as counter-terrorism, non-proliferation,climate change and response to piracy, had reached a new height and experienced a very rare "honeymoon period" of security cooperation.

The third stage is from 2017 till now,major changes have taken place in the security relations of major powers, turning from cooperation to intensified competition and confrontation.Several major events during this period directly affect the trend of security relations among major powers.Firstly, when Trump came to power, he "withdraws from groups" and vigorously implements unilateral and protectionist policies.Secondly, the Ukraine incident emerged.Thirdly, the United States successively introduced the"Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" and"Indo-Pacific strategy".Trump’s unilateral and protectionist policies almost destroy the security relations with all major powers, and even the relations with its allies.The Ukraine incident worsened relations between the United States and Russia and catalyzed tensions between Europe and Russia.The "Indo-Pacific strategy" intensifies the security confrontation in this region.In overall view, cooperation and competition coexist, and dialogue and confrontation coexist in the current security relations among major powers, but there is an indisputable fact that the strategic competition and confrontation have increased significantly.In recent years, there are four noteworthy changes in the security relations of major countries:

Firstly, the geopolitical games among major countries get intensified.In Europe, the U.S.-Russian and Europe-Russian trial of strength around the NATO's Eastward expansion continues, and the United States and Russia struggle sharply on the Ukrainian issue,Syrian issue and Iranian issue, etc., so a risk of escalating the conflicts increases.Meanwhile,European countries, swept by the waves of populism and non-liberalization, have serious differences, and the geopolitical risks brought by Brexit have become more and more fierce.In the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has continuously intensified its all-dimensional suppression and containment of China in the fields of politics, diplomacy, economy, science and technology, military, culture and so on,leaving the Sino-U.S.relations seriously regressive, and increasing the risk of military friction between the two countries or escalating into conflict due to involvement in regional crises.

Secondly, the military competitions among major powers get strengthened.In recent years,the world's major military powers continue to increase military spending.According to the 2018 Global Military Spending Analysis Report released by the Swedish International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world military expenditure in 2018 reached about US$1.822 trillion, the highest level since the end of the Cold War.In 2019, the military budgets of all major countries increased substantially.Among them, the United States reached US$716.3 billion, an increase of 11.9%, exceeding the total of the top nine countries in the world.The world's major military powers compete sharply in the fields of artificial intelligence, directional energy weapons, advanced unmanned weapon systems, space weapons, cyberspace warfare and hypersonic weapons, etc.Earlier this year,the United States released an upgraded version of the Missile Defense Review Report,announcing a comprehensive updating of the missile defense system, and propagating that it would "ensure that any missile launched at any time and anywhere against any target in the United States be detected and destroyed".The new version of the "Star War Plan" which"shows the Cold War posture" has intensified the strategic precautions among major countries and caused serious damage to the security and mutual trust among various countries.

Thirdly, there is fierce competition among major countries in emerging realms.In the emerging fields of space, cyber, deep sea and polar regions, from the debate on values to the development of technology still to the competition for international rules-making and discourse, major countries have unfolded comprehensive competitions, showing an increasingly fierce trend.The relationship among major powers in emerging areas reflects the change of power pattern in real space,which will have an important impact on the adjustment of international security order and the building of new security relations.

Fourthly, the security cooperation of the major powers in various fields go backwards if not going forward.A series of reports issued by the United States, such as the National Security Strategy report, the National Defense Strategy report and the Indo-Pacific Strategy report,show that the United States no longer regards terrorism as the main threat to its national security, but the competition among major powers as the main threat.Compared with the past, in recent years, the momentum of security cooperation among major powers in such important areas as anti-terrorism, regional security, arms control and disarmament,response to climate change, counter-piracy and smuggling is obviously insufficient, some of which is weakened and some even goes backward.

There are three main reasons for strengthening of competition and confrontation in the security relations of major powers: One,the change in the power balance of major countries is a fundamental reason.Particularly,the gap between China and the United States in some areas such as GDP and international influence is gradually narrowing, causing serious concern and anxiety in the United States.The core issue here still remains: how to look at China and how to view the rising China?If the United States does not treat China's rise correctly, fairly and justly, but still has a strong Cold War mentality and committed to suppression of and containment of China from hegemonic logic, then, confrontation can hardly be avoided.Two, the profound readjustment of the national security strategy of major powers,especially that of the United States.In recent years, the world's major countries have issued a series of new strategic reports, re-positioning the traditional relations among major countries,highlighting the position and role of competition among major powers in international security.Particularly, the United States emphasizes reshaping the international security order and the pattern of major powers with the America First.In recent years, the United States frequently withdraws from multilateral agreements, provokes friction with major countries in the world, intensifies regional tensions, and leads to a comprehensive escalation of contradictions and conflicts among major countries.It can be said that a series of major adjustments of the U.S.security strategy are the root cause of the increasing instability and uncertainty in international security.Three, the confluence of de-globalization and populism has poisoned the atmosphere of security cooperation among major powers.The trend of de-globalization thinking is the product of the negative factors of globalization.In recent years, populism and nationalism have risen simultaneously in international politics, and the confluence of these three has seriously impacted on the stability of international security and major power relations.Since his coming to power,President Trump has taken the initiative to cater to populism, unilateralism and trade protectionism, and taken the "de-globalization"action under the pretext of trade frictions, and has frequently imposed tariffs on China, the European Union, Japan, India and many other countries.The wrong practices of the United States further exacerbate the risks of competition among major countries and the turbulence of the international situation.

Under the above circumstances, although there are dialogue and cooperation among major powers of the world, yet, precaution measures and frictions emerge one after another,and the risk of conflict increases, which presents a trend of long-term phenomenon.Therefore, in the future period to come, how to manage and control well risks and prevent crisis from escalating into conflict will be the theme of security relations among major powers.

II.Restructuring and reshaping a new type of security competition and cooperation relationship on the basis of healthy competition is the general trend and the aspiration of the people

In the foreseeable future, there will be three main prospects for the development of security relations among major powers.Firstly,the differences and frictions among major powers continue to escalate, resulting in the overall vicious competition and even towards the new Cold War.Secondly, a military conflict and even a war may be caused by misjudgment or accidental discharge of a gun or the fierce geopolitical game.Thirdly,Restructuring and reshaping a new type of security competition and cooperation relationship on the basis of healthy competition.Currently, the first two prospects are relatively impossible, but are on the rise, which is very worrying and must be given high vigilance.The third prospect is more likely, i.e.after a period of friction and collision among major powers,which try their best to avoid big conflict in the game-play and gradually find ways and means of benign competition so as to form a new mutual adaptation to each other, thus, building a new security competition and cooperation relationship.The reason why this prospect is more likely is mainly the following :

First, shaped by the trend of globalization and the development of science and technology.With the continuous progress of globalization and science and technology, some new factors have emerged.The boundaries between countries have become difficult to distinguish in more and more emerging domains such as the cyber network, space, finance and so on.Meanwhile, transnational and global security challenges are also increasing, to which the public goods provided by the hegemonic countries become difficult to effectively respond.This makes it necessary for a country to take into account the interests of its strategic counterparts and cooperate with other countries in order to safeguard its own interests.

Second, with the power diffusion brought about by the continuous emergence of non-state actors and the rapid development of cyber information technology, the nature of major country relations has changed fundamentally compared with the past.The interests of nations are intertwined and intricate, and the zero -sum thinking of “either peace or confrontation“ becomes more and more inappropriate.Only by relying on traditional power politics or armed conflicts, it is more and more difficult to safeguard national interests effectively, and the general trend is that non-zero-sum games continue to rise in international relations.

Third, the balance of nuclear terrorism and the common demand for non-proliferation are fundamentally difficult to be weakened.Some basic elements, such as cross-border and cross-regional linkages, are still being strengthened to play a comprehensive role, so that the strategic balance among the major powers, including China and the United States,can be maintained.

Fourth, the call for a new model of global security governance to address global security issues through partnership, dialogue,consultation and common development is growing, and is increasingly recognized by the international community.The international security coordination and international security governance need to expand constantly, and many countries begin taking actions.

Fifth, in the face of the rising strategic competition between China and the United States, the Chinese Government and the strategic academia believe that strategic competition is not the whole content of the Sino-U.S.relations, and Sino-U.S.relations should never be simply positioned as a strategic competition relationship.The Chinese leaders and the Chinese Government have made clear for many times that China is determined to make long-term and unremitting efforts to promote the Sino-U.S.relations in the spirit of coordination, cooperation and stability.China's policy will play an important impact on the direction of the future strategic competition between the two countries and the major power relations.

Sixth, various important countries in the world do not want major countries to move towards confrontation and conflict.New-typed major power relations and new-typed international relations based on cooperation and win-win results are in the interests of the overwhelming majority of countries and peoples.

III.Managing and controlling risks well and preventing crisis from escalating is a pressing matter of the moment

First, currently, various major powers should do their utmost to maintain dialogue and exchanges, and maintain cooperation especially in the field of non-traditional security, which will help the major powers to manage and control competition, reduce misunderstandings and misjudgments, and prevent the escalation of crisis.

Second, major powers should resolutely avoid moving towards a global arms race and vicious competition.We should fully recognize the rising military security risks in major power relations.The urgent task is to further improve and strengthen the crisis management and control mechanism among major powers,prioritize the crisis prevention, and implement the existing dialogues and communication and exchanges mechanisms.

Third, the world's major powers should jointly maintain, strengthen and improve multilateral cooperation mechanisms, safeguard globalization, actively promote the shaping of an open world economy, build a community with a shared future for human kind, promote transformation of the global governance system,and strive to control its negative aspects.

Fourth, China and the United States should not and cannot decouple their economic &trade and science & technology exchanges, let alone confronting each other.The two sides should strive to shape economic and technological competition on the basis of international laws and regulations and market economy, and strive to form a virtuous circle,so as to maintain economic and technological cooperation between the two sides and play a stabilizing role in world peace and development.

Major countries always shoulder greater responsibility for world peace and development,and should assume more obligations.The security relations among major powers determine the stability and prosperity of the world to a considerable extent.Currently, major powers' security cooperation is full of challenges, but also share new opportunities.Peace, cooperation and win-win situation are the general trend of the times and the aspiration of the people.Restructuring and reshaping a new type of major power security competition and cooperation based on healthy competition is the historical mission entrusted to the major powers by the times.