International Security Situation Summary of World Military Situation in 2018:the Changing Peace Force

International Security Situation Summary of World Military Situation in 2018:the Changing Peace Force

By Chen Hanghui, PLA News Center, PLA Newspaper

The year 2018 is one of uncertainty.

In this year, the world power balance accelerated its evolution, the competition and game-play among major powers became increasingly fierce, and the relations between major powers were sometimes tense and sometimes relaxed; in this year, local conflicts sometimes found tense development and became calm later; in this year, international terrorism, like "a hundred-feet bug, dead but not rigid yet", even resurged in some regions. Faced with the rapidly changing world pattern, many countries adopted different countermeasures, some of which were positive and in conformity with the trend; some panicked and bewildered, and still some even moving against the trend.

China's armed forces continue to show major power’s responsibility, actively provide public security products and become an anchor for international and regional peace and stability.

In the face of the complex and changing international security situation, the Chinese military is open, confident and courageous to take on responsibilities, has been working hard in the front lines of the UN peacekeeping operations, Gulf of Aden escort and international humanitarian relief, and actively participating in global security governance and providing strategic support for world peace and development.

Since June 2018, the Chinese Navy's Peace Medical Vessel, having set sail for the "Harmony Mission - 2018", has visited 10 countries successively, with a total of more than 50,000 medical visits, and has become a "shining card" of China in the new era. In October, China's 13 peacekeeping standby units passed the UN high standard assessment and evaluation once and for all, and were promoted to the second-level standby units, marking an important achievement in building China’s peacekeeping standby force. In December, the 31st convoy of the Chinese Navy went to the Gulf of Aden and Somali waters to carry out escort missions. Over the past 10 years, the Chinese Navy has designated 31 escort formations with a total of more than 26,000 officers and navy men to escort more than 6,500 Chinese and foreign ocean-going ships safely, having successfully rescued, escorted and assisted more than 70 Chinese and foreign ships in distress, and has made important contributions to safeguarding the safety of important international waterways.

The strategic competitions among major powers surface, the geopolitical games intensifies, the power distribution is tit-for-tat, and the risk of conflict and confrontation increases.

In January, the United States issued a new edition of the National Defense Strategy report, which clearly identifies Russia and China as strategic competitors. Under the guidance of this strategy, the U.S. military has accelerated the configuration of global troops deployment, reduced the troop size in the Middle East and Africa, given priority to ensuring the troops requirement in Asia-Pacific and Europe, and imposed pressure on China and Russia by withdrawing from the INF Treaty. So the geopolitical games in Asia-Pacific and Europe continue to heat up.

In the Asia-Pacific front, the U.S. military continues to strengthen its naval and air forces, maintain the deployment of dual aircraft carrier battle groups, consolidate the alliance system and develop new partnerships. It particularly renamed the Pacific Command the Indo-Pacific Command, with the intention of bringing India into its strategic orbit. American warships and warplanes entered the South China Sea many times, and its missile destroyer entered the waters near Peter the Great Bay after 31 years, intentionally intensifying the geopolitical contradictions of major powers. In order to safeguard the interests of its Far East, the Russian military organized many large-scale military exercises in the eastern military region this year, especially the "Oriental-2018" strategic exercises, so as to show its strategic determination and enhance the level of combat readiness of the army. In addition, Russia also actively intervened in the DPRK and Afghanistan hot issues as a lever to play games with the United States.

In the European front, the U.S. military announced the rebuilding of the Second Fleet, re-increasing its troops in the European theatre after five years, strengthening strategic presupposition of weapons and equipment, urging NATO allies to substantially increase defense expenditure, conducting frequent large-scale military exercises and providing military support for the Central Asian countries, and gradually increasing strategic pressure on Russia. In response, the Russian military strengthened its strategic deployment in locations such as the Caspian Sea and the Baltic Sea, advanced deployment of new strategic weapons, dispatched Tu-160 strategic bombers to Latin America, the backyard of the United States, and conducted tit-for-tat military exercises. In addition, Russia continues using Syria to restrain the United States and other Western countries, strengthening Russia-Iraq cooperation, and undermining Turkey's relations with NATO.

It can be imagined that with the all-round unfolding of strategic competition among major powers, the geopolitical games among major powers may spread to the whole world, and various risks will increase significantly.

The trend of hot and hard issues evolves dramatically with the scenario changed frequently, but the overall trend is relaxation

In Syria, government forces have recovered the surrounding areas of Damascus and Southwestern Syria, taking full control of the warring situation. Since August, the government forces have formed a siege situation in the Idlib region in the Northwest, ready to launch a decisive battle against the contingent forces, but due to Turkey's opposition and pressure from the international community, they have not launched the operation yet.

In Yemen, Saudi coalition forces together with Yemeni government forces in June began their siege of Hodeida, an important port in the Red Sea, in an attempt to inflict a lethal blow on Hussein's armed forces. Hussein's armed forces are also ready to die in the counterattack. With the good mediation of the international community, the battle of Hodeida was on and off, progressed slowly, its intensity and bloodshed were lower than expected, and had not yet caused a large-scale humanitarian disaster. It is noteworthy that a new round of Yemen peace talks under the auspices of the United Nations will be held at the end of the year, so peace in Yemen will witness a window of opportunity.

In Afghanistan, the U.S. military intends to force the Taliban to accept political reconciliation by moderately increasing its troops and strengthening the intensity of air strikes, thus respectfully bringing to an end the "longest war" in American history. Since September, the Taliban have responded to Trump's new Afghan strategy with a series of counter-attacks. At present, the U.S. military is in an embarrassing situation in Afghanistan – unable to win, can’t afford to lose, difficult to leave".

The DPRK nuclear issue is undoubtedly a major concern in 2018. In June, the U.S. and DPRK leaders met in Singapore and broke the deadlock. Subsequently, the leaders of the DPRK and the ROK met three times to promote the thawing of North-South relations, and the situation on the Peninsula returned to the track for good development from lingering on the brink of the war that had lasted for many years. However, after a series of dramatic changes, the negotiations on denuclearization between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the United States are facing real difficulties, and the trend of the situation on the Peninsula remains to be seen

In addition, the global anti-terrorism struggle has maintained a high-pressure posture, but terrorism has a strong stubbornness, and the international anti-terrorism situation is still grim. In August, the United Nations report showed that the IS organization seems to have recovered and may return in the future.

Major countries in the world continue to promote military transformation, rely more on military means to safeguard ones own interests, and an arms race continues to heat up.

The Trump Administration has vigorously pushed the plan of "rebuilding the U.S. Army", with a defense budget of US$717 billion for fiscal year 2019, exceeding US$700 billion in two consecutive fiscal years; renewing aged equipments on a large scale, increasing the intensity of military training and improving the level of military readiness; expanding the army for the second consecutive year, with an active force of nearly 1.34 million strong in fiscal year 2019; and vigorously promoting the formation of a space force with the intention of maintaining space-dominance through force reconfiguration; accelerating the development of subversive technologies such as hypersonic, artificial intelligence and directional energy to ensure the long-term competitive edge of the U.S. military.

Based on the experience of Syria's battlefield operations, the Russian military continued to promote structural reform, highlighted the construction of rapid, counter and cracked forces, added land aviation, electronic warfare, air defense and anti-missile forces to airborne troops, and enhanced the comprehensive combat capability of airborne troops. It attaches great importance to the development of “trump-card” weapons, take the lead in deploying Kinzhal, (dagger) hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite laser weapons, and accelerate the development of strategic weapons such as "Vanguard" hypersonic missiles and "Samart" intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The Indian military has accelerated its modernization drive. The Army is planning to launch the largest organizational restructuring after independence, significantly reduce the size of its headquarters, improve the ratio between combat forces and logistics forces, give priority to the development of new combat troops such as cyber warfare, information warfare and psychological warfare, and plan to disarm 100,000 strong in the next three to five years. The Navy seeks to significantly expand the number of its warships, with plans to increase the number of warships from 117 to 200 by 2027.

Japan continues to seek breakthrough of its defense only policy, increase military expenditure for the sixth consecutive year, promote the aircraft carrierization of the frigate "JS Izumo, DDH-183"-- Izumo-class helicopter destroyer, purchase advanced equipments such as F-35 fighter planes, and incorporate space, cyber and electromagnetic operational capacity-building into the new edition of the Defense Plan Outline, actively preparing for the "new mode of war".

The Largest Maritime Parade in the History of New China

On April 12, 2018, the Central Military Commission of the CPC held a grand Marine Parade in the South China Sea. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPCCC, President of the State and Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CPC, reviewed the parade and made an important speech. Navy's 48 warships, 76 fighter planes and more than 10,000 officers and sailors participated in the parade, showing a new face of the people's Navy and the firm determination of the People's Army to safeguard national sovereignty, security, development interests and world peace, and demonstrating the great achievements of building a strong People's Navy since the 18th National Congress of the CPC.

Chinese troops Participate in Russian "Oriental-2018" Exercises

According to the consensus reached between China and Russia, the Chinese armed forces went to Russia to participate in the Russian Army's "Oriental-2018" strategic exercises from mid-August to mid-September. From September 11 to 15, the two sides jointly organized operational exercises at the training ground in the Russian trans-Baikal border area. The strategic command organs of the two armies jointly set up an exercises director's headquarters. The joint campaign command organ was made up of officers from the Northern command of China and the Eastern military command of the Russian Federal

Armed Forces. Invited by this largest strategic exercise organized by the Russian Army in recent years, this is also the participation in the largest outbound exercises in the history of the Chinese military. The exercises will help to further enhance the ability of the two military to respond to various security threats and to maintain regional peace and security.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula ushered in a relaxation

In 2018, with the efforts of all parties, the situation on the Korean Peninsula obviously became warmed up. In June, U.S. President Trump met with North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un in Singapore. In September, South Korean President Wen met with Kim Jong-un during his visit to the DPRK and signed the September Pyongyang Joint Declaration. China has won praise from the international community for its actions. The military situation on the Peninsula has also begun to ease. In December, the South Korean and North Korean military successfully completed the mutual inspection of the status of withdrawal guard posts in the demilitarized zone. Peace and prosperity, reconciliation and cooperation are the common aspirations of the people of the Peninsula and the region at large. Peace on the Korean Peninsula is having a rare historical opportunity. All parties should pool their wisdom and move in opposite directions so that the window of peace on the Peninsula will be wider and wider.

The United States threatens to withdraw from the INF Treaty

U.S. President Trump, after attending a rally in Nevada on October 20, said that the United States would withdraw from the INF Treaty and accused Russia of long-term violation of the Treaty. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said in Brussels on December 4 that unless Russia resumes full implementation of the INF Treaty clauses, the United States will suspend its obligations under the Treaty after 60 days. Early this year, the United States unilaterally withdrew from multilateral cooperation frameworks and mechanisms such as the Iranian nuclear agreement. The U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the INF Treaty will aggravate the imbalance of nuclear power between the United States and Russia. It will be much more difficult for the United States and Russia to sign an arms control agreement again in the future. The withdrawals are generated by the thinking of "American First" and "American exceptionalism", which will have a serious impact on the international multilateral cooperation system.

Russian-Ukrainian confrontation in the Kachi Strait

On the morning of November 25, two Ukrainian naval Armored Artillery boats and an armed tugboat formed a naval formation. While trying to enter the Azov Sea through the Kachi Strait, the Russian side intercepted the Ukrainian vessels for violating Russian territorial waters. During the confrontation, Russian warships collided with the Ukrainian Navy tugboat, then, tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued. This confrontation once again reflects the deep contradiction between Russia and Ukraine on Crimea. Meanwhile, Russia demonstrates to the West its determination and ability to defend territorial sovereignty; Ukraine also proves its value of holding Russians back and returning to the Western horizon.

Japanese Government Approves the New Defense Outline

The Japanese government held a cabinet meeting on December 18 and approved the new version of the Defense Plan Outline and its supporting Medium-term Defense Program, which includes the construction of the self-defense force's "cross-border" defense system, adaptation of existing warships to aircraft carrier, and the purchase of large quantities of new equipment. This is the revision of the defense outline by the Abe government since 2013. The new version of the defense outline is more overseas-oriented, offensive-oriented and breakthrough-oriented, which not only deviates the pacifist development line stipulated in the Peace Constitution, but also goes far beyond the bottom line of the "exclusive defense" policy followed by successive Japanese governments after the war.

The United States has began withdrawing from Syria

On December 19, White House spokesman Saunders issued a statement saying that the United States has begun withdrawing its troops from Syria as the war against the extremist organization "Islamic State" has been winning. U.S. President Trump tweeted that the United States had "defeated" the IS forces in Syria, and taking military action against the IS was the "only reason" for the current government's military presence in Syria. However, who will clean up the mess left by the U.S .military intervention in Syria and who will be responsible for filling the governance and security gaps after the withdrawal will continue to affect the development of the situation in Syria and the Middle East.

NATO holds its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War

From October 25 to November 7, NATO held a "Trident Juncture 2018" joint military exercise in Norway and its surrounding areas. About 50,000 strong from 29 NATO member countries and two partner countries, Sweden and Finland, participated in the exercise. NATO says the exercise is intended to test NATO's ability to help a member country regain sovereignty after an armed invasion. This exercise is NATO's largest military exercise ever since the end of the Cold War. It is a milestone event that NATO for the first time has taken the core task of collective defense and fully tested the capabilities of the Joint Task Force of Advanced Readiness.

Syria's situation hangs in the "last battle"

In 2018, most of the terrorists in Syria were eliminated and 95% of the territory was liberated. Idlib became the last major sanctuary territory occupied by Syrian contingent forces. Syrian government forces began deploying troops around Idlib Province in late August, ready to launch a general offensive, "the last battle" is imminent. On 17 September, Russia and Turkey agreed to establish a demilitarized zone between government forces and anti-government forces in Idlib Province. Syria has become the battlefield of multi-party game, the situation is sensitive and fragile. Relevant parties should seize the rare opportunity to ease the current situation in Syria and promote the peace process in Syria.

Macron calls for "European Army"

On November 6, French President Macron again called for the creation of a "European Army" when he attended the Centennial Celebration of the end of World War I in Verdun. Macron's desire to build a "European Army" is closely related to the current security dilemma facing France and the European Union. Problems such as terrorist attacks, refugee flows and cyber attacks, etc. also make it more urgent to build a "European Army". The "European Army" envisaged by Macron is to be built outside the NATO framework and is a new way to explore the independent European defense. However, there are still many uncertainties, and we should wait and see.

( Edited excerpt of the article in the PLA Newspaper, 3 January 2018)