Understanding of Major Country Relations and New World Order

By Yu Hongjun,

Understanding of Major Country Relations and New World Order

By Yu Hongjun,

CPAPD Vice President and Zhiyuan Think Tank Senior Researcher

CPAPD Vice President and Zhiyuan Senior Researcher Yu Hongjun

Human history, in the final analysis, is a process from no rules, no order to exploring rules and order, establishing rules and order, and constantly improving rules and order, so there is no ending. If we go back a little further in history, the 13th century B.C. peace treaty between Egypt and Hitt is the first important measure for human society to establish international relations and build international order. Back then, the two sides fought for hegemony for a hundred years, and Egypt and Hitt were both losers. Finally, they signed this very famous peace treaty in the ancient history of the world.

After entering modern society, Europe also fought religious wars for more than 30 years. Finally, it was found that rules and order should be established. Only by abiding by rules and maintaining order can we live in peace and coexistence and survive commonly. Therefore, only in the era of capitalism had the international community had the Westphalia Peace Treaty, also known as the Westphalia System.

However, as the interests of different countries rise and fall, there are always demands to readjust the world structure and conflicts arising from the adjustment of the sphere of influence. After the formation of the Westphalia system, the process of rivalry among European powers is not alleviated. Therefore, at the beginning of the 19th century, two major groups of countries emerged in Europe, the two major groups forces for war, i.e. the Central Powers and the Entente Countries, and the world was bogged down to the First World War.

After the end of the war, European and American countries drew a lesson from the war and recognized the need to establish rules and order, so Versailles system came into being. The United States put forward a 14-point peace program, and various countries agreed to establish a unified intergovernmental organization. But the conditions were still immature at that time and Americans promoted the establishment of the League of Nations, but they did not join the League of Nations. Therefore, the Versailles system and the League of Nations are far from achieving the goal of containing conflicts and controlling wars. As a result, two sources of war emerged in Europe, and the Second World War finally broke out. It can be said that both Germany and Japan are typical countries that intended to compete for regional and world hegemony by virtue of their rapidly growing strength, but ultimately they failed in the challenge and failed miserably. One is to build a thousand-year empire, the other is to build a Greater East Asian Co-prosperity Circle, both of which ended in failure.

Looking back at the history of the post-World War II period, we can see that there are two major powers whose national strength declined from prosperity after World War II. One of them has retreated from being a world-class power to a second-class power, while the other has to accept the reality and self-disintegration. The first is the United Kingdom and the other is the Soviet Union. Britain was a victor of World War II, but it lost a large number of its colonies and its international status declined sharply. Another country, the Soviet Union, once became the second superpower, had contended for hegemony with the United States and tried to maintain its status as one of the world's hegemonic powers, but ultimately failed and declared its collapse and accepted the fact that the federal country had completely disintegrated.

From the year 1989 to the year 2017, i.e., 28 years after the Cold War, the world has entered a special period of one super power – the United States is the super power. On the whole, however, the world is changing from a bipolar pattern before the Cold War to a multi-polar pattern, so contradictions and conflicts are continuing. Now some people say that the world has entered a new era of disorder without rule. Still others say that it is an era of disorder without pole. However, we can see that there are rules in the world as a whole, the United Nations organization still plays a role and the WTO also plays a role, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank as well as other international institutions are still playing their roles in general. But their functions are unsatisfactory and can not keep up with the development and changes of the world situation. We should know that any international order will encounter new problems and challenges, which is a never-ending process. Therefore, we look forward to the improvement of relations between major countries and the upgrading of the international order. Only with a new order, will mankind enter a new era of harmonious coexistence. Of course, this is certainly an ideal, and there is still a gap between ideal and reality.

Now, the international community should establish a new order, and various countries should follow some new rules in the international arena, i.e., the code of conduct between countries. In working with the international community and international organizations, various countries should follow the most basic concepts, rules and guidelines. In addition, a new order and system should be established on the basis of international norms formed after World War II and the Cold War. The post-World War II and post-Cold War international norms are basically successful. We should upgrade and re-generate the existing system of international relations rather than start a new one, nor abolish the WTO, the United Nations and a series of multilateral mechanisms either. It is impossible for the international community to accept such a simple and crude impulse. We should also pay attention to inheritance, so that human society can achieve harmony and stability, and the whole international relations can develop healthily and orderly.

There is already a consensus that the international order and rules must be adjusted, but the key is how to adjust them. It should be said that major countries bear special responsibilities. We all say that countries, be they big or small, are equal in international relations, but we must realize objectively that major countries have special responsibilities and missions for the stability of international relations and the progress and development of human society. Therefore, major country relations are very important. In the 1970s, some people said that there were five power centers in the world. Now there are four power centers: the United States, China, the European Union and Russia. These four centers form intricate triangular relations, such as Sino-U.S.-Russian relations, U.S.-Russian-European relations and so on. But in the final analysis, the most prominent relationship among the major powers is the Sino-U.S. relations. The contradiction between China and the United States has become the main contradiction in the relations between major powers, and thus an important engine for the change of international relations. To establish new rules and order in the world, it is essential to solve the problem of the Sino-U.S. relations.

How to handle well the Sino-U.S. relations and how to handle well the relations between all the major powers requires a general idea and a new understanding and a new thinking acceptable to all. That is to say, the establishment of new rules and new order requires an overall guidance. I think there are four main points as follows:

The first is mutual respect. All countries, especially the major powers, must respect each other. To respect each other, the first thing is to recognize that the world is always pluralistic for ever and the value system is always different for ever. Mutual respect, first of all, should show respect for different value systems, respect for different development paths, respect for different social systems and achievements of other countries. It is necessary to deal with state relations on the basis of such a concept, especially true for major countries.

The second is inclusive. Mutual respect is not enough, but inclusive to each other too. The significance of inclusiveness is to recognize that each country has its own different interests, i.e., to accept some reasonable policy proposals of partners, and to accept the unique role and influence of them in specific areas and specific affairs. The uniqueness and difference of the interests and demands of major powers must be recognized and accepted. For example, China hopes to see the United States play a constructive role in the Asia-Pacific region, which is an inclusive sentiment.

Third is chain development. The development in the era of today can neither be isolated nor closed. The world economy is a whole, all industries are a chain, a chain of mixture of all countries is no longer a empty verbiage so we should pay attention to chain development. This kind of chain development is bilateral, multilateral, regional and global. We should continue to promote South-South cooperation and North-South cooperation. In addition to economic and trade cooperation, scientific and technological cooperation, infrastructure-building cooperation, there should also be financial cooperation, humanistic cooperation, environmental protection cooperation, and so on. As far as the future development of human society is concerned, it is more important to cooperate with each other and various countries should closely integrate the interests of development.

The last point is to jointly pursue security. The today’s world is in an era of close interweaving of traditional security with non-traditional security. Currently, the security challenges facing human society are not only the territorial sovereignty and integrity. The greatest threats facing the international community now come from three aspects, first of all, the risk of nuclear proliferation.

The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation will only grow in the long run, once out of control, it is unimaginable. The second is cyber security. Nowadays, the proliferation of false information on the Internet makes every government and every citizen deeply affected and deeply disturbed. How to solve the problem of cyber security and how to cooperate with each other in cyber security is probably a long-term and major challenge we are facing. The third is environmental deterioration. Environmental pollution and destruction have reached a terrible level. Studies have shown that if human kind develops in accordance with the present pattern, so in another 50-60 years to come, there will be no place for building waste to be stored. Others, such as rising temperatures, melting glaciers, frequent earthquakes, abnormal climates and declining species, are witnessed. In the long run, environmental degradation is more challenging to human survival and development.

Therefore, we now uphold and promote common security, advocating that these common problems be solved first. On the issue of common security, major powers also have special missions and responsibilities. Only by pursuing common security, can the entire international community enjoy security and every country enjoys security. In short, the most important thing in building a new international rule and order should be these basic consensus, rather than tangling over trivial specific issues, such as trade imbalance. Great statesmen should have a global and a historical vision, so as to bring the current international relations into a new realm and raise the future international order to a new level.

( Edited excerpts of Yu Hongjun's speech at the seminar on "Great Power Relations and the New World Order" held by Zhiyuan Think Tank on June 24, 2018).