盲盒經濟

∷ 陳德彰 文/譯

前不久，“盲盒經濟”突然崛起。“盲盒”俘獲了大量忠粉的心，人們對之入迷。有一對夫婦為此四個月花了20萬元，還有一位60歲的玩家，一年花費70多萬元購買盲盒。數據顯示，某二手購物平臺過去一年有30萬盲盒玩家在其平臺交易。

盲盒里面通常裝的是動漫、影視作品的周邊玩偶，或專門設計出來的玩偶。但盒子上沒有標注，只有打開盒子才會知道自己抽到了什么。這和買彩票頗為相似，都有賭運氣的成分。

單個盲盒的價格通常為三五十元。相對購買力較強、受影視動漫文化熏陶的年輕人，能夠撐起龐大的盲盒經濟。從上游的IP設計，到中游的零售，再到下游的二手交易和玩偶改裝，其產業鏈已相當成熟，且市場空間巨大，當然也在不斷掏空年輕人的口袋。

Not long ago,“blind box economy”suddenly sprang up.The blind box has won the heart of large numbers of faithful fans.People simply get enchanted in it.A couple spent 200 thousandyuanon them.Another sixty-year-old guy spent over 700 thousandyuanin buying blind boxes.Statistics showed last year that 300 thousand hobbyists made deals through a second-hand shopping platform.

The blind boxes usually contain peripheral dolls of comics and animation,or film and television,or specially designed ones.But there is no mark on the box,and only after opening it can the buyer see what he has raffled.This is rather like buying lottery tickets,for the buyer has to bet on his luck.

A single blind box usually costs about thirty to fiftyyuan.It is the young people who have purchase power and those who have been exerting influence on culture of comics and animation,or film and television can sustain the huge blind box economy.From the upstream IP (Intellectual Property) design to the midstream retailing,and then to the downstream second-hand trade and doll repackage,the whole industrial chain is fairly mature and there is a huge market space.Of course,it also continuously empties the pockets of the young people.

不過，盲盒成癮說到底是源于賭徒心理，相對于彩票，它高度不透明。售賣盲盒的商家是否放大了“中獎”概率，變相誘導購買，我們還不得而知，使得盲盒成為消費陷阱。而且，盲盒中的物品是不是山寨產品，同樣是個未知數。另一方面，“盲盒經濟”帶火了二手交易，一些拆出來的經典、限量款玩偶，在二手交易平臺上價格暴漲，溢價甚至達到三四十倍。其火爆行情，到底是真實供需關系的結果，還是有商家投機炒作的因素，對盲盒玩家來說很難判斷。

此外，“盲盒經濟”基于收藏的文化潮流。“盲盒經濟”的受眾，很多是涉世未深的未成年人，他們對市場風險的識別能力相對較低。因此，他們被刻意夸大的“中獎”概率吸引，不斷投入金錢去購買盲盒，以獲得心儀的玩偶，或者在二手交易平臺上花高價購買盲盒玩偶，認為可以保值升值，卻有可能陷入設計好的套路。所以有必要提醒年輕人節制消費、避免成癮。監管部門應進一步規范市場，對交易不透明以及各類違規炒作及時清理打擊，以保證這一新興行業能夠良性運轉。

國內最火的盲盒品牌“泡泡瑪特”于2010年創立，2014—2016年連續虧損。2017年登上新三板后僅用一年時間就轉虧為盈，2018年凈利潤較2016年增長140倍。國泰君安證券研究發文《盲盒經濟：好奇不僅害死貓，還能掏空你的錢包》。

However,addiction to blind boxes is much like that to gambling.It is highly nontransparent compared with lottery ticket.Nobody knows whether sellers of blind boxes exaggerated the winning rate so as to induce people to buy them in disguised form,thus digging a consumption trap.Besides,it is also unknown if the objects in the blind boxes may turn out to be copycat products.The blind box economy promoted its second-hand trade.The price of some classic dolls or dolls of limited edition have skyrocketed in second-hand trade platforms,and some may reach thirty to forty fold.But it is difficult for buyers to judge whether it is the result of real supply and demand,or the consequence of businessmen's speculation.

The basis of the“blind box economy”is the cultural trend of collection.Many of the target consumers are of minors who have scanty experience of life,whose capacity of discernment is relatively low.They are thus attracted by deliberately exaggerated probability of“winning a prize”and incessantly throw money to buy blind boxes in order to gain cherished dolls.Or they may buy at secondhand trade platform high-priced blind box dolls,thinking they can maintain value preservation and appreciation,thus falling into the fixed pattern of trap carefully designed by businessmen.Therefore,it is necessary to remind young people to control their consumption lest they become addicted.Supervision department should further regulate the market,timely liquidate and crack down on the nontransparent trade and various hypes against the regulation,so as to ensure benign operation of this new trade.

Pop Mart,the hottest brand of blind box,was founded in 2010,but it sustained losses successively from 2014 to 2016.However,after it mounted onto the new third board in 2017,in the time of one year it showed a turn from loss to profit,and in 2018 its net profit increased by 140 fold than 2016.Based on research,Guotai Junan Securities published an article entitled“Curiosity Not Only Kills the Cat but Also Burns Your Wallet”.