High-tech Progress and its Impact on Global Strategic Stability

By Wu Jun

CPAPD Executive Council Member, and Deputy Director and Research Fellow with the Center for Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics

Currently, the rapid progress of high and new technology represented by artificial intelligence (AI)will have an impact on future war decision-making and warfare.The usage of some technologies and equipments can replace some functions of nuclear weapons in some aspects, and will affect global strategic stability.But in terms of destructive power, it is still the nuclear weapons that can destroy mankind.If AI weapons, cyber weapons and nuclear weapon systems are linked together (disrupting nuclear command systems, attacking nuclear facilities and striking nuclear weapon launching systems,etc.), they will have disastrous consequences for the whole world.Therefore, rules of conduct for cyber weapons and AI weapons must be adopted as soon as possible.Starting with development of AI and cyber weapons, this paper discusses their military applications and their impact on global strategic stability.It is proposed that if AI weapons and cyber weapons are willfully developed for attacking nuclear facilities, which will have disastrous consequences for the whole world.In order to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used, the nuclear-weapon-have states should adopt the policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons as soon as possible to reduce the alert level of nuclear weapons.

I.Current Development of Emerging Science and Technology

With social progress, global integration,especially cooperation of scientists in the field of science and technology, the emerging science and technologies have developed rapidly, brought about many conveniences to human life and created tremendous value, particularly the development of artificial intelligence, cyber network and outer space technology makes our life incomparably convenient.Meanwhile, their enormous military values have also attracted the attention of various countries in the world.The military application of these new technologies may undermine the global strategic stability, and bring about disastrous consequences to mankind,and should be prevented in advance.

(1)Development of high and new technology represented by AI technology

After the "Deep Blue" chess master in 1997,Master -- the 2017 "Alfa Go" upgraded version --defeated many top chess players such as Ke Jie and so on, showing that AI has made significant progress in rapidly processing big data and acquiring useful information.The way of autonomous learning and the application of big data in learning process make the future application of AI technology change subversively.Considering the future development, the storage capacity of computer processors can be almost unlimited.Machines are getting themselves constantly improved through self-learning.Meantime, robots are tireless and respond to the outside world much faster than human.Therefore,in many areas of human life, AI robots to replace human activities will become a trend.

In the field of military security, the use of robots may radically change the future warfare.In the Afghan battlefield, the BigDog robots used by American soldiers help war-fighters implement accompanying support and subvert the battlefield logistics support mode.Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)equipped with artificial intelligence can avoid radar and missile attacks automatically and can attack the key targets and change the warfare through image recognition system.

Battlefield perception means integration with information processing capabilities of the artificial intelligence have great advantages in their use on battlefield.With the help of artificial intelligence, the human reaction time in battlefield is greatly shortened, and more accurate judgment and action can be made, thus gaining the battlefield advantage.It is proved that pilots assisted by artificial intelligence have an overwhelming advantage over pilots without assistance of artificial intelligence in air combat drills.

Self-learning AI can command information comprehensively and can make accurate computing on advantages and disadvantages as well as gains and losses through analysis of the previous battles, can play an important role in battlefield decision-making in the future, and can create subversive changes especially in military planning, logistic support-organizing, battlefield real-time information acquisition, analysis, target image analysis, etc.

The lethal autonomous weapon system is the product of the cross-integration of information system, artificial intelligence, robots, unmanned system and traditional weapon platform technology, and can independently find, locate,identify and strike targets with high intelligence.Currently, with the rapid development of autonomous technology, lethal autonomous weapons and intelligent weapon systems are developing rapidly.

Nowadays, the AI application in military affairs and lethal autonomous weapons are still in the stage of development and evolution, without clear physical form and capability characteristics;different countries have different levels of development and application capabilities, and there are still some deviations in understanding among various countries since they have different development level and application capacity.Therefore, up to now, the international community has not yet reached a clear definition and unanimous understanding of AI weapons and lethal autonomous weapon systems.

(2)The trend of cyberspace becoming battlefield and weaponized accelerates, and the means of cyber attack is used in actual combat

The extensive application of cyberspace brings about infinite convenience to human life and creates tremendous value.Cyberspace is increasingly closely related to national security and strategic interests.According to public data,more than 100 countries have issued cyberspace security-related strategies and policies.More than 40 countries have issued cyberspace-related military plans or established corresponding institutions and military forces, nearly 20 of which have explicitly developed offensive cyber-warfare forces.In June 2016, NATO formally defined cyberspace as a field of operations parallel to land, sea, air and space, and stressed that cyberspace defense should be integrated into the operational planning and operational tasks of the alliance.The battlefield-incubating of cyberspace is becoming increasingly prominent.

In order to safeguard its interests in cyberspace, the United States would ensure its dominant position in cyberspace.Since January 2017, the United States has issued a series of strategic documents on cyber security,highlighting the importance of cyber security in American national security, and the U.S.determination to safeguard its position and absolute advantage in cyberspace.

The U.S.Department of Defense (DoD)in 2016 planned to spend US$34.7 billion in five years to enhance cyberspace security, among which US$14.3 billion is spent on cyberspace activities, supporting the offensive cyberspace operations and defensive military operations in cyberspace.On February 25, 2016, the U.S.DoD submitted its 2017 budget proposal to the House of Representatives, planning to increase US$900 million on upgrading the combat capability of cyberspace and achieving the goal of deterring the "most powerful opponent".On March 16,2017, President Trump released the "America First" federal budget plan for fiscal year 2018,and the defense budget grew by 10% over the same period last year, reaching US$639.0 billion.The budget significantly increased the portion for responding to the threat of cyber attacks.

The U.S.Cyber Command is upgraded to an independent united Command.The Cyber Task Force has achieved full operational capability,and the cyber space force building and institutional setting are further improved.On May 4, 2018, the U.S.Cyber Command was formally upgraded to an independent joint command at the same level as the Indo-Pacific Command and the European Command, and can report directly to the Secretary of Defense in performing its tasks.On May 17, 2018, officials from the U.S.DoD Cyber Command said that all the 133 cyber task force under the U.S.Cyber Command had full operational capability.The United States frequently organizes various exercises related to cyberspace security, aiming at enhancing the offensive and defensive capabilities of cyber security staff, improving inter-agency collaboration and emergency response capabilities, and training cyber security personnel.

Currently, the cyber network has become a field of intense confrontation among various sides.Cyber attacks occur now and then,especially some cyber attacks against civilian infrastructure, such as virus attack on the Iranian Stuxnet, and it is reported that Russian state grid is planted with virus.All these indicate that the current cyber attack has reached the stage of actual combat employment.

II.The progress of emerging technologies may shake the existing strategic stability

Artificial intelligence and cyber network technology bring convenience to human life and improve the quality of human livelihood, but its military application is inevitable, which will have an impact on international security.With continuous development of the technology, the deception and destruction of AI systems are difficult to predict and understand, which will bring huge risks to national security and key infrastructure.But from the destruction perspective, AI weapons and cyber weapons are unable to replace nuclear weapons.

Presently, the world is in a period of peace,and opposing war has become the consensus of all countries in the world.With development of artificial intelligence, the rapid progress of artificial intelligence and the application of new materials will greatly reduce the cost of war;meanwhile, the role of human in the battlefield will decline, and the human casualties will also decline.When considering gains and losses,policymakers have less worries, so people's understanding of the warfare will change, which may lower the threshold of war, make violence return and make the world more turbulent.

Nowadays, it is generally believed that human intervention is very important in AI decision-making process, but with the continuous progress of learning AI, the probability of error is very small in most cases.The consequence is that human beings depend more and more on AI,habitually rely on AI for decision-making and voluntarily withdraw from participating in the control of AI robots.This can have serious consequences.

The threshold of AI application is not high,any non-governmental organization or individual may use AI to carry out destructive activities.With the AI progress, these destructive results may be serious.

Artificial intelligence may destroy the existing strategic stability.For example, it is always believed that the mobile missile launcher can improve the survivability of missiles, but artificial intelligence plays a key role in intelligence, monitoring, reconnaissance and analysis systems, making mobile missile launchers vulnerable to pre-emptive strike.The Ballistic Missile Defense Review report of the United States proposes to develop laser-loaded UAVs and strike missiles before launch.This is also a reflection of AI undermining strategic stability.

People can't separate from the cyber network in their daily life.The damages to the national economy caused by cyber attacks may be no less than a large-scale war.The destructive effect of cyber attacks on national economy has been verified.Some media reported that the United States implanted viruses in Russia's power grid,trying to control Russia's power grid at a critical moment.If implemented, serious consequences may arise.Especially if the cyber attacks against a nuclear command system affects command and decision-making system, the consequences will be unthinkable.

III.Making AI and Cyberspace Code of Conduct is currently the Important Work

In May 2016, the G-7 summit released the G-7 Principles and Actions on Cyber, which advocates strengthening cyber security cooperation among member states, jointly protects key-infrastructure, encourages more countries to join theBudapest Convention on Cybercrime,collectively cracks down on cyber crime, supports the application of existing international law to cyberspace, and formulates stable strategic framework for international cyberspace.

Cyberspace arms control has begun becoming an important means for major countries in the world to maintain their own security and promote their security and diplomatic strategies.International exchange platforms have begun to address many related issues.Governments and experts and scholars of various countries have made more and more in-depth research on the issue of cyberspace arms control, and have begun to formulate more specific cyberspace-related arms control measures.It is very important to formulate AI code of conduct.The international community should make joint efforts to guide AI developing in the direction of benefiting human beings.Nuclear-weapon states should keep AI far away from any area related to nuclear war.

From a technical point of view, no weapon can replace nuclear weapons at present.Nuclear weapons remain an important force in maintaining global strategic stability.The rapid development of AI technology and cyberspace technology make the existing nuclear weapon systems vulnerable, and may upset the existing strategic balance, thus resulting in serious consequences.In order to prevent AI from playing a destructive role, nuclear-weapon States should minimize the role of nuclear weapons, pursue the policy of no-first use of nuclear weapons, and ensure that there will be no nuclear war in the future.

In short, the development of newly emerging technology brings convenience to human life, but also many uncertainties to the world.Just as President Xi Jinping points out,“the new generation of AI is booming all over the world, injecting new energy into the economic and social development, and is changing people's way of life.Commanding well this development opportunity and dealing well with the new issues raised by AI from the perspectives of law, security, employment,ethics and government governance require deepening cooperation and joint discussion among various countries”.This is also a major problem facing the newly emerging technology represented by artificial intelligence, so various countries in the world should cooperate closely to collectively create a community with a shared future for humankind conducive to human happiness and welfare.