中國經濟復蘇將惠及東盟

文/中國日報網

4月21日，東盟秘書長林玉輝在印度尼西亞雅加達東盟秘書處大樓舉行的捐贈儀式上向中方表示感謝，高度肯定東盟與中國在共同抗擊新冠肺炎疫情方面的合作（新華社記者 杜宇 攝）

5月22日，國務院總理李克強在《政府工作報告》中指出，今年要優先穩就業保民生，努力實現城鎮新增就業900萬人以上。

經濟發展是今年全國兩會的主要議題，新加坡經濟咨詢機構百年亞洲咨詢公司的創始董事兼首席執行官馬努·巴斯卡蘭看到了一些需要解決的關鍵問題。他說：“就業形勢依然嚴峻，全球需求大幅下降也表明，中國經濟面臨持續下行風險?！钡?，巴斯卡蘭同時表示，放寬限制措施和刺激計劃提振了國內市場，中國經濟將迎來強勁復蘇。他表示：“目前的數據表明，中國的消費者具有很大韌性，他們正在擴大消費，支撐需求。盡管新冠肺炎疫情仍存在不確定性，但中國的經濟復蘇將惠及東南亞國家聯盟（簡稱東盟）成員國。”

盡管中國的國內生產總值出現了幾十年來最大的下降（今年一季度，我國GDP同比下降6.8%），中國的消費市場已經顯示出加速復蘇的跡象。根據商務部的數據，在五天的“五一”假期期間，實體商品的網上銷售額同比激增36.3%。

巴斯卡蘭表示，更多的供給側改革也將有助于中國經濟在良好基礎上保持復蘇態勢。隨著中國經濟復蘇，它可以通過許多渠道影響東盟經濟體。

China will prioritize stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihoods this year, aiming to create more than 9 million urban jobs, according to the Government Work Report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang on May 22th.

With economic development a main topic at this year’s two sessions, Manu Bhaskaran, founding director and CEO of Centennial Asia Advisors, an economic consultancy in Singapore,sees some key issues that need to be addressed. “The employment situation remains tenuous and the sharp decline in global demand also points to continuing downside risks to the Chinese economy.” he said. Noting the easing of restrictions and the stimulus programs to boost the domestic market, Bhaskaran said that the Chinese economy will enjoy “a vigorous recovery”. “So far, the data seem to suggest that Chinese consumers are resilient and are stepping up spending,supporting demand,” he said.

Despite the biggest GDP contraction in decades－the economy shrank 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter－China’s consumer market has shown signs of accelerated recovery. During the five-day May Day holiday, online sales of physical commodities witnessed a 36.3 percent year-on-year surge, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

More supply-side reforms will also help the Chinese economy sustain a recovery with good foundations.As China undergoes a recovery, it can affect ASEAN economies through many channels, said Bhaskaran.

China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 10 years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2020, ASEAN replaced the European Union as China’s largest trading partner,accounting for 15.1 percent of the nation’s global trade volume during the period, according to the General Administration of Customs.

“China is an important economic partner of ASEAN, and at a time when the developed economies are suf-fering from a sharp downturn, China is the only large source of demand that could still be growing,” said Manu Bhaskaran.For instance, the rise of demand in China could spill over into rising demand for ASEAN’s exports of commodities and manufactured goods, while commodity prices and business confidence could also be boosted, said Bhaskaran, noting prices for commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper are already rising in line with China’s recovery.

6月28日，市民在位于重慶巴南的東盟商品集采城內挑選商品。 當日，利用重慶—東盟跨境公路班車運輸優勢打造的東盟商品集采城在位于重慶巴南的重慶公路物流基地正式開業。東盟商品集采城作為西部內陸地區對東盟貨物的承接地，開業后將提供中國與東盟商品互通有無、集中展示、集中交易的新平臺（新華社記者 唐奕 攝）

根據中國商務部的數據，10年來中國一直是東盟最大的貿易伙伴。與此同時，根據海關總署的數據，在2020年第一季度，東盟取代歐盟成為中國最大的貿易伙伴，占中國同期全球貿易額的15.1%。

巴斯卡蘭說：“中國是東盟重要的經濟伙伴。在發達經濟體經濟遭受重創之際，中國是唯一的巨大需求來源，且需求仍在增長?！北热纾袊枨蟮脑鲩L或將使得東盟大宗商品和制成品出口需求上升。同時，大宗商品價格和商業信心也可能得到提振。他指出，鐵礦石、煤和銅等大宗商品價格已隨中國經濟復蘇而增長。

此外，巴斯卡蘭認為，中國通過民間渠道或“一帶一路”建設進行的投資也可以促進對東盟的投資。中國是東盟最重要的外國直接投資（FDI）來源國之一。2018年，中國對東盟的FDI達到102億美元（約合人民幣727億元），占東盟FDI總額的6.6%。

至于擬議的《區域全面經濟伙伴關系協定》，巴斯卡蘭說，疫情沒有對參與國根據時間表最終達成協議的愿望產生任何影響。《區域全面經濟伙伴關系協定》是東盟與中國、日本、韓國、印度、澳大利亞和新西蘭六個自貿伙伴之間擬議的自由貿易協定。今年3月，中國商務部表示，中國將繼續按計劃推進2020年年底簽署該協議。

對于跨境旅行的限制，巴斯卡蘭表示，由于新冠肺炎疫情，作為東盟與中國交流的一個關鍵領域，旅游業在未來一段時間內不太可能重新成為增長動力。

In addition, Chinese investment either through private channels or via the Belt and Road Initiative could also contribute to investment in ASEAN, Bhaskaran said.China is one of ASEAN’s most important sources of foreign direct investment. In 2018, FDI flows from China to ASEAN reached $10.2 billion, or 6.6 percent of ASEAN’s total FDI.

As for the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Bhaskaran said the pandemic has not had any impact on participating countries’ desire to finalize the agreement according to the timeline.The RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement between ASEAN and its six FTA partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. In March, the Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to advance the signing of the agreement at the end of 2020 as scheduled.

However, Bhaskaran said tourism, a key area for ASEAN-China exchanges, is unlikely to reemerge as a growth driver for some time to come, due to the pandemic.