Textile markets rise on demand:U.S.apparel imports and cotton exports

by Zhao Xinhua

U.S. apparel imports continued to recover in November 2020， after dramatic declines throughout the year， with shipments up 9.5 percent in volume to 2 billion square meter equivalents （SME） compared to a year earlier， according to newest data by the Commerce Departments Office of Textiles & Apparel（OTEXA）.

The value of apparel imports into the U.S. was down 4.7 percent year over year in November to USD 5.28 billion， which was an improvement of Octobers 6.9 percent year-over-year decline. There was also some pickup in the year-to-date imports in the first 11 months of 2020， with shipments down 24.03 percent to USD 59.24 billion compared to the same period in 2019， after notching a 25.56 percent year-to-date decline in October.

Still-top supplier China followed the pattern， with the U.S. importing 14.9 percent more goods to 778.7 SME in the month compared to November 2019， when the tariff-fueled U.S.-China trade was still in full force. The value of those imports fell 8.3 percent to USD 1.27 billion year over year in November–a slower rate of decline than the 11 percent drop the prior month.

But imports from China have still plummeted 40.27 percent in the 11-month period though November to USD 14.07 billion and its position as the goto apparel supplier to American brands and retailers faces challenges. Most of the Top 10 U.S. apparel suppliers saw their imports rise in November. Shipments from No. 2 Vietnam increased 13.5 percent in value to USD 1 billion but were still down 6.59 percent year-to-date to USD 11.71 billion.

Imports from Bangladesh fell 11 percent in value year over year to USD 372.87 million and were up 1.8 percent in volume to 143.74 SME. For the year to date， shipments from Bangladesh were down 11.6 percent to USD 4.87 billion. Bangladesh exports missed “strategic targets” in the second half of the year based on the governments Export Promotion Bureau， as production was curtailed by the pandemic and a decline in orders from key suppliers.

Bangladesh apparel exports in the July-to-December period were valued at USD 15.55 billion， missing its target by 4.12 percent and 2.99 percent below year-earlier levels. Exports of leather and leather goods， including footwear and accessories， were USD 446.13 million， surpassing the bureaus target by 1.05 percent， but coming in 6.24 percent below 2019 shipments. Home textiles exports reached USD 547.48 million in the period， beating the strategic target by 18.83 percent and nearly doubling 2019s shipments. Cambodia continued to be the only top supplier to post a year-to-date increase， with imports up 4.78 percent to USD 2.61 billion in the 11 months. In November， shipments from the country rose 17.3 percent year over year to USD 235 million.

Asian suppliers Indonesia and India had mixed results in the month， with the volume of its imports up but their value down for the month. Imports from Indonesia rose 7.8 percent in volume to 72.21 SME and declined 19 percent in value to USD 59.5 million year over year. Indias shipments increased 11.1 percent to 80.57 SME but fell 7.5 percent to USD 235.26 million. Imports from Pakistan jumped in volume and value， up 24.1 percent to 65.34 SME and 24.3 percent to USD 131.47 million.

Despite U.S. cotton production falling 5 million bales from the pre- vious year， the countrys exports are forecast at 15.25 million bales for the ongoing marketing season 2020-21 that began in August. In the five months to December， China has accounted for almost half of U.S. cotton exports， with the countrys total imports forecast at 10.5 million bales.

Chinas cotton import this season is expected to reach the highest level in seven years. Moreover， Chinas consumption is expected to recover 5.5 million bales from the previous year and reach 38.5 million bales， accounting for more than one-third of world use in 2020-21， the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. department of agriculture （USDA） said in its January 2021 report on ‘Cotton： World Markets and Trade.

The demand for U.S. cotton in China has been mostly led by the State Reserve and State-owned Enterprises （SOEs）， which have likely accounted for more than three-fourths of total imports of U.S. cotton thus far in 2020-21. "Instead of sourcing from Brazil， the primary supplier in the previous two marketing years， the State Reserve and the SOEs have returned to the United States likely in part spurred by the Phase One Agreement，" the report said.

Despite higher U.S. prices relative to Brazil and India（second and-third largest exporters forecast in 2020-21）， U.S. sales and shipments to China through December exceeded the previous year by more than 2.3 million bales. These export volumes are notable considering higher exportable supplies for Brazil and India， where both countries have record carrying and Brazils 2020-21 exports are forecast at a record， the report added.

Australia， another significant supplier to China， witnessed exportable supplies decimated by a 2020 drought. Like the United States， Australia is a significant supplier of high-quality cotton to the worlds largest importer. "In addition， a recent political dispute between it and China has diminished demand for Australian origin and boosted imports of U.S. cotton，" the USDA report said.

As a result of resilient China demand， U.S. cotton exports are forecast to be mostly unchanged from the previous year， despite fewer shipments and sales to Vietnam and Bangladesh.