World Economic Situation and China’s New Development Pattern against Background of COVID-19

Ding Yifan

Vice President， China Society of World Economics

Research Fellow， World Development Institute， Development Research Center of State Council

COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted world economy. Developed economies such as the US and EU have experienced -8% to -9% growth for 2020 while emerging economies like India and Brazil have been stuck in extremely difficult situations. The US， EU and other developed economies have embraced “super-easing” monetary and financial policies， but unconventional economic policies like those cannot support a medium and long term recovery. Meanwhile， thanks to scientific and rigorous prevention and control， China succeeds in curbing the pandemic fast and resumes work and production soon to represent the major momentum for growth against the atmosphere of global recession caused by the pandemic. However， out of anxiety， jealousy or other complex， some western developed countries continue to call for “decoupling” with China. Faced with this situation， China must clarify its own needs， adhere to its own international development strategy and avoid external disturbance.

UNFORESEEABLE RECOVERY OF DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

Due to COVID-19 pandemic， global economy slumped in 2020. According to the estimation by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development， the pandemic will decrease global GDP by $2 trillion， $220 billion of which will happen in developing countries other than China， export countries of oil and other staple commodities suffering the most.

The US and European countries are all heavily stricken by COVID-19. In the preliminary stage of the pandemic outbreak， insufficient awareness of the seriousness of the pandemic led to failure to take timely and comprehensive prevention and control measures， which finally resulted in rampant spread of the virus and out-of-control situation in some countries till today. After a short relief during the summer， the second-wave pandemic impacted the US and Europe again in autumn. France has been seeing 30，000 to 40，000 daily new cases and the number in the US is as high as 70，000 to 80，000. India and some other emerging economies are also facing the risks of economic collapse due to the uncontrollable pandemic. Besides， some emerging economies are under the cloud of rocketing debts brought by economic recession， while currency mismatch on debt may cause new financial crisis.

In the beginning， the US and European countries wavered between controlling the pandemic and resuming economic activities， resulting in failure of both. European economies suffer bitterly with a 9.1% shrink for Euro zone. France may see its economy contract by 10% and over 11.5% unemployment rate in the following 6 months. The UKs GDP is predicted to decrease by 8%-15% and it is unlikely to resume the scale of pre-COVID-19 days for the next year. Germany， the engine of European economy， is also pessimistic due to its 31.1% decrease of export industry in this April compared to that of last year， marking the greatest drop since 1950 when export data was first recorded. Japan， the developed economy in East Asia is also hit so heavily that international rating institute has revised Japans economic outlook to negative with a predicted 5%-6.1% decrease.

The impacts of the pandemic on developed economies supply side and demand side are simultaneous： when paralyzed industrial production brings tremendous negative effects to the supply side， rising unemployment caused by the suspended production leads to decrease of peoples disposable income and greatly refrains from demand for consumption. The US Federal Reserve Board， European Central Bank and other similar authorities are forced to adopt zero or even negative interest rate policy. However， measures as such can only keep stock markets stable at best and have little to do with the lasting momentum that real economy recovery needs. In order to cope with the slump of economy and market， the US and European countries subsidize their people with cash in the hope of stimulating consumption but end up with further expanding their financial deficits. Trump administration issued treasury bonds at a huge sum to fund pandemic prevention and control and to boost economic recovery. Data shows that from April to September of 2020， the US governments total amount of borrowing is $3.7 trillion， reaching a? record high. If its GDP of the year fails to reach the expected level， the US debt ratio will be higher than that of Greece before its debt crisis.

REORIENTED ECONOMIC POLICIES OF WESTERN ECONOMIES DUE TO COVID-19

In front of the pandemic， neo-liberalism which was once a guideline for western countries economic policies was questioned while state interventionism has quietly returned.

Firstly， western economy academic circle are departing from neo-liberalism and justifying state interventionism. Since the international financial crisis in 2008， voices in favor of state interventionism and industrial policies have been growing amongst western economy academic circle. Back to 1980s when neo-liberalism was on the rise， some western economists were criticizing the same industrial policies taken by emergent economies and even accredited them for developing countries corruption and inefficiency of production. Ironically， in the international financial crisis of 2008， German economy performed quite well and maintained robust growth exactly because it relied on industrial policies which renewed its advantage in manufacturing.

Secondly， the US and European countries are manipulating laws to reinforce protectionism. On one hand， they exercise strict investigation upon foreign direct investments in the so called name of “national security”; on the other hand， they directly enact certain laws to prevent foreign enterprises from acquisition and merger of domestic companies which meet market norms. Western countries abuse legal means，? especially the substantial increase in tariffs and other protectionist policies， which may cause global trade war between the blocs and finally lead to global economic depression.

Thirdly， they are putting government financial resources into supporting their enterprises. Although the US and European countries financial incomes are insufficient to fund their enterprises facing drained liquidity and insolvency， debt monetization allows their central banks to buy government debt so that the latter have money to subsidize the enterprises. Whats more， some European media even instigate nationalizing some enterprises to better protect certain industries in case the crucial industries fall into foreign hands.

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES USED

THE PANIDEMIC TO ACCELERATE THEIR “DECOUPLING”

WITH CHINA

Since the pandemic outbreak， China has been the first to resume work and production and has provided the international community including the US and European countries with a plenty of medical supplies on the basis of its first-stage success of pandemic prevention and control. However， some politicians of the US and European countries kept using the pandemic to stigmatize China and even groundlessly accuse China of using “mask diplomacy” to expand its geopolitical influence. Those right-wing politicians connect economic dependence on China with so-called “national security” to maintain and clamor for “decoupling” with China on economy as soon as possible. Meanwhile， the pandemic reminds the US and European countries of their dependence on Chinas medical equipment and medicine supplies. In order to lower the risk of supply disruption， related countries are continuously accelerating investment in domestic manufacturers， lessening the dependence on import from China.

As is shown by present international situation， the US has not only abandoned the principles of respecting market economy and protecting private property， but begins to uphold big government doctrines featured with state power intervention in market and bullying in international trade based on its dollar hegemony. Although the US and China have reached the first stage economic and trade agreement， Trump administration refuses to put aside the Cold War mentality and try to keep American enterprises and those rely on American technologies from exporting technologies to China by long arm jurisdiction so as to suppress on China. Nevertheless， China and the US are still each others most important partners of trade and investment， which means the so-called “New Cold War” waged by the US on China is impossible. In the process which the US stubbornly pushes forward “decoupling” with China， the opportunities for the US to acquire cheap industrial products are decreasing， the costs to establish new supply chain are rising， and the US economy is likely to be stagnant again.

As is pointed out by British magazine The Economist， due to the pandemic， flattened supply chain of global economy is evolving to regional integrated ones. Supply chains are forming in North America with Mexico as the manufacturing base， in Europe with East European countries as the manufacturing base， in East Asia with Southeast Asia China as the manufacturing base. In these circumstances， transnational corporations have to reconsider their investment strategies and supply chain arrangements. However， related enterprises can neither ignore Chinese industries superiority in the global supply chain， nor give up mature Chinese market. It deserves notice that global transnational investment decreased by 40% in 2020， but foreign direct investment to China increased. In the first half of 2020， the US investment to China increased by 6% compared to the same period in 2019 and Chinas high-tech services actual use of foreign investments increased by 19.2%. Those data show that China is still an attractive destination for investment in world market although some transnational corporations hope to resist risks by cutting investments to China.

CONSTANT GROWING

OF CHINA IN ECONOMIC

GLOBALIZATION

Chinas opening and reform coincides with economic globalization led by western developed countries under neo-liberalism， which allows China to participate in globalization quickly and tremendously improve the speed and quality of Chinas industrialization. The total worth of Chinas manufactured products has increased from 180 billion CNY in 1980 to 24 trillion CNY in 2017. The total worth of exported goods has increased from 15.1 billion CNY in 1980 to 2.27 trillion CNY in 2015. It is safe to say that the opening of world economy and globalization have greatly promoted Chinas industrialization and growing exterior demands have supported Chinas constant economic growth.

However， the international financial crisis in 2008 led to a striking drop of exterior demands for China. But China turned to rely on its tremendous interior market to maintain economic growth. With relevant stimulus packages including domestic infrastructure investment and consumption market， China realized sustained economic development.

Economic globalization indeed largely boosted Chinas rapid development of industrialization， making it the economy with the most complete industrial categories in the world. According to statistics of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development， China has become the only country that equipped with all industrial categories listed in the United Nations International Standard Industrial Classification （ISIC）. During the pandemic， only China is able to timely provide the world with most needed medical supplies and daily necessities. In 2018， Chinas value of industrial output surpassed the sum of that of the US， Japan and Germany， undoubtedly becoming the greatest industrial good producer in the world. Thats why western transnational corporations withdrawal will not impede Chinas development， but make room and spare market for Chinas domestic enterprises. Besides， the perseverance， organization ability and resilience China has performed since the outbreak are unparalleled by any other country. So western transnational corporations did not leave China， but enlarged the scale of investment.

Chinas GDP has grown from 31.92 trillion CNY in 2008 to 90.08 trillion CNY in 2018， having tripled in 10 years. However， in the same period of time， developed countries saw their economy stagnant or even shrink. For example， the EUs GDP has decreased from 19 trillion to 18 trillion. Although there is the factor of currency devaluation， it is undeniable that its development has been disrupted. For Japan， the GDP dropped from $5.04 trillion to $4.95 trillion. During the same 10 years， the US GDP increased from $15 trillion to $20 trillion， but meanwhile its treasury bonds grew by over $10 trillion， which means it borrowed $2 to do business but only wielded $1， marking low efficiency and sustainability of its economic growth.

Besides， China has seen great improvement in the scale and quality of economic development， which is especially obvious in the field of infrastructure. In 2018， the total mileage of Chinas high speed railway was over 28，000 kilometers， twice as long as the sum of all other developed countries， making Chinas traffic infrastructure system the most developed in the world. In the meanwhile， Chinas information infrastructure also made great progress. Based on that 4G communication infrastructure covering 98% of its territory， e-pay system and identification systems using QR code have thrived， which has endowed China with unparalleled information and technology superiority shown in the prevention and control of the pandemic.

“DUAL CIRCULATIONS”

OF CHINA TO CONVOY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Taking it into consideration that Chinas traditional export market， the US and European countries are unlikely to control the pandemic and their economy will stay around low level， China needs to change its economic structure including export structure. In order to adjust to todays international landscape， the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has emphasized on accelerated construction of a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other. For domestic circulation， on one hand， China needs to improve its low-income peoples skills and income to boost consumption within the domestic market; on the other hand， China needs to pay attention to self-reliant industrial ecology in case of adversity due to other countries containment. As is pointed out by President Xi Jinping， “The world is experiencing profound shifts unseen in a century， science and technology innovation being a crucial factor of it. To foster opportunities in the midst of crisis and shape a new situation among shifts， we must resort to science and technology innovation.”

To renew international circulation in the new situation is another important link for Chinas future development. China not only needs to maintain the important position in global industrial chain， but also needs to climb to a higher position. In the new era， international circulation is about both how to efficiently “bring in” enterprises from developed countries like the US， European countries and Japan， and how to facilitate Chinese enterprises “going out”. It should be noticed that the Belt and Road Initiative China put forward in 2013 was not only in order to cope with the problems of the slowed global economic growth caused by the international financial crisis， but a “come-in-handy” arrangement for anti-globalization. To some extent， Chinas BRI and cooperation agreements with foreign governments represent China-style new-type globalization. Projects of BRI are those of centenary benefits and include high-level participation from both market and authority. As is shown by Chinas experience in economic development， for most of the developing countries， a government is obligated to foster market for its country.

Today， Chinas BRI has received active response from many countries and has become an important engine for global economic recovery after crisis. But a handful of politicians of the US and some other western countries try every means to offset Chinas rising influence by selling African and Middle Asian countries on the possibility of funds and human resources investments， directly contesting with BRI constructions， or even by using propaganda machines to smear fruits of BRI constructions and instigate related countries people to sabotage BRI projects. During the pandemic， ASEAN became Chinas biggest trade partner for the first time， Chinas development mode of international circulation is bursting with vitality. With larger “circle of friends”， Chinas industrial capacity can be fully released， which can not only improve Chinas investment efficiency， but also enlarge market and facilitate more balanced world economic development.