基于隨機演化博弈的重大調水工程生態補償：以南水北調工程為例

高鑫 宋瑞震 曾賽星 沈菊琴

摘 要：南水北調工程供水區與受水區間因發展和補償的非協調而導致矛盾越發凸顯，亟待建立生態補償予以化解。鑒于現有研究較少在不確定因素影響下對補償主客體的決策行為以及縱向補償與橫向補償的配比關系進行探索，本文結合演化博弈論與隨機過程，構建了中央政府、供水區政府與受水區政府的隨機演化博弈模型，分析了建立生態補償的最優策略、約束條件及因素影響。研究發現：受水區政府是建立南水北調生態補償的關鍵，其決策易受到初始概率、水環境保護成本、監管成本與隨機擾動等因素的影響;懲罰是有效推動受水區政府參與生態補償的環境規制方式;生態補償標準及其配比會在方向與程度上影響各政府的決策。

關鍵詞：生態補償;南水北調工程;演化博弈;隨機過程;仿真

中圖分類號：F224.32 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：2097-0145（2022）01-0026-09 doi：10.11847/fj.41.1.26

Abstract：The contradiction between the water-supply area and the water-receiving area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is becoming more prominent due to the non-coordination of development and compensation， which needs to be resolved by establishing ecological compensation. There are few studies on the decision-making behavior of compensation subject and object， and the ratio of vertical compensation and horizontal compensation under the uncertain factors. Therefore， combined with evolutionary game theory and stochastic process， this paper constructs the stochastic evolutionary game model of central government， water-supply area governments and water-receiving area governments， and analyzes the optimal strategy， constraints and influencing factors of establishing ecological compensation. It is found that the water receiving area governments are the key to establish the ecological compensation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project， and their decision-making is easily affected by factors such as initial probability， water environment protection costs， supervision costs and random disturbance; Punishment is an effective way of environmental regulation to promote the governments of water receiving area to participate in ecological compensation; Ecological compensation standard and its distribution affect the decision-making of different governments in direction and degree.

Key words：ecological compensation; south-to-north water transfer project; evolutionary game; stochastic process; simulation

1 引言

南水北調工程是調整我國水資源空間分布不均[1]、緩解我國北方地區水資源短缺的重大水利基礎設施工程[2]。工程通過建設東線、中線與西線三條調水線路，使長江、黃河、淮河、海河四大流域相互連通，形成了“四橫三縱、南北調配、東西互濟”的水資源配置格局。目前，東線、中線一期工程已于2013年與2014年通水，累計調水400多億m3，直接受益人數高達1.2億，對我國社會經濟發展與生態環境保護具有巨大促進作用[3]。

南水北調工程有效緩解了受水區的用水，卻限制了供水區的發展，導致供水區與受水區間的發展矛盾。……