Macron’s Tough Challenges Ahead

By George N.Tzogopoulos

The victory of Emmanuel Macron in the presidential runoff on April 24 signals continuity in French politics. While his opponent and leader of the Rassemblement National （National Rally） party， Marine Le Pen， might have presided over a dramatic political change both domestically and internationally， Macron’s agenda is well-known and was already tested in the previous five years. Against this backdrop， the EU welcomed the electoral result in the hope of harmonious cooperation with Paris under particularly complicated external conditions.

The economy is the priority in a period during which growth remains weak. Macron has promised to proceed to a reduction of 15 billion euros （$15.7 billion） of taxes to boost the country’s competitiveness and support those citizens suffering from the new challenges stemming from both the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. The annual cost of his fiscal program for the 2022-27 period will be 50 billion euros （$52.5 billion） as he plans to increase expenses， especially in the sectors of health and education.

In 2021， the French budget deficit reached 6.5 percent of GDP， while the general government debt stood at 112.9 percent of GDP by the end of the year. The year before， the deficit accounted for 9.2 percent of GDP and the debt 115.7 percent of GDP. As a ratio to GDP in 2020， France witnessed the highest levels of government expenditure， 61.6 percent， in the EU， and its economy contracted 7.9 percent before rebounding 7 percent in 2021.

The Gilets Jaunes （Yellow Vests） protest movement began in early November 2018 against a planned rise in the tax on diesel and petrol， which Macron insisted would aid the country’s transition to green energy. The protests， sweeping French cities， made global headlines. The movement， motivated mainly by outrage at the economic injustices and inequality of modern France， was widely considered a powerful symbol of why social justice must always be at the heart of environmental justice.

But whether Macron will be able to reenergize his overall reform agenda in the next five years remains to be seen. The president insists on the need for the country to be more competitive and counts on the gradual reduction of unemployment， which dropped to 7.4 percent in the last trimester of 2021， the lowest since the 1990s.

Nevertheless， an analysis of qualitative data demonstrates that the decline of unemployment is linked to the rise of job insecurity. French companies have expanded their recruitment activity indeed. But this is only happening on the condition of offering short-term contracts to temporary employees that are not always renewed. According to national statistics， for instance， 3.3 million people in France held low-security jobs in 2020， constituting approximately 12.4 percent of total employment.

Inequalities and imbalances exist. This is obviously the main reason why dissatisfied citizens and the working class either voted for Le Pen or abstained from voting altogether in the presidential runoff. Macron largely counted on the stratum of the population which does not feel the pain of working and social injustice.

In line with the domestic arena， Macron’s reelection revitalizes the European strategic autonomy concept. Although the RussiaUkraine conflict is reminding the EU of its security reliance on the U.S.， it also bolsters the bloc’s commitment to pursue a strategic course of action and increase its capacity to act autonomously. This was reiterated in the Versailles Declaration adopted at a meeting of EU leaders on March 10-11. The extraordinary summit of European leaders on May 30-31 is expected to shed some new light on the theme. As a matter of principle， China supports Europe’s strategic autonomy steps. This becomes frequently evident during SinoFrench and Sino-European political meetings.

Last， but not least， the victory of Macron will perhaps have an impact on the EU’s decision-making process. Although Germany remains France’s key European partner， as outlined in the 2019 Aachen Treaty， the Macron administration has established an original， institutional collaboration with Mediterranean countries in recent months. In September 2021， France sealed a defense deal with Greece that complements another one it had already signed with Cyprus. Also， in December 2021， it signed an enhanced cooperation agreement with Italy， dubbed the Quirinale Treaty. Macron has certainly started repositioning his country on the European map toward merging with others， a strategy that he will probably strive to empower. BR