Prospects for China-Philippines Relations with Marcos Jr. as President of the Philippines

Dai Fan

On May 9， 2022， thePhilippines held a newround of presidential and vice presidential elections. Afterleading in the polls，Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos，the only son of former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos，won a landslide victory againstcurrent vice president LeniRobredo and boxing great Manny Pacquiao. Marcos Jr. was the first presidential candidate to win ageneral election by an absolutemajority in 36 years.

Why Marcos Jr.？

Some critics argued thatMarcos Jr. rarely talkedabout specific policies or hisadministrative program. Heskipped every presidentialcandidate policy debate. Hisexperience as vice provincialgovernor and governor of hishome town Ilocos Norte didn’timpress the outside world， either. However， Philippine voters didn’tseem to be bothered and electedhim president.

Many factors led to Marcos Jr.’svictory.

First， from the perspectiveof election mobilization andorganization， Marcos Jr. receivedsupport from many key politicalfamilies and local politicalforces. Political families are keyto Philippine politics becausethey control power both locallyand nationally. Marcos Jr. wonendorsements from mostprovincial governors and manylocal political forces， includingthe Arroyo family in the north，the Garcia family in Cebu， andthe Duterte family in the south（Marco Jr. benefited greatly from a partnership with Sara Duterte）， while the other candidates hadmeager insider backing. Robredo， the runner-up to Marcos Jr. inpolls， did get support from many social elites， but they were not as advantageous as Marcos’backing. In elections， local political forces are the most likely to generatevote flows. Marcos Jr.， born witha golden spoon in his mouth， did have an innate advantage in theelection.

Second， from the perspective of voters， although formerPresident Marcos was criticized for problems during hisadministration， that episodeof history is distant and vaguefor most voters today. In fact，the influence of the Marcosfamily and Marcos Jr.’s socialmedia campaign to rehabilitate the family name was widelyembraced by Filipinos. Streetinterviews conducted by

this writer in the Philippinessuggested that former President Marcos was still a favorite leader of many respondents.

Third， many media outletsasserted that Marcos Jr.’s socialmedia“brainwashing” of thePhilippine general public worked. This assertion is obviously notfair—the real world and onlinemedia were also flooded withattacks on Marcos Jr. and storiesfrom the former Marcos era.

But Marcos Jr. won theelection simply because votershave high expectations for him to lead them towards their dreams.

Prospects for China-Philippines Relations

As commander-in-chief ofthe Philippine armed forces， thepresident of the Philippines also helms its foreign policy. Theperson who wins the presidential election will to a large extentdetermine the orientation of the Philippine foreign policy in thenext six years， just as PresidentDuterte did six years ago to turnthe tide of China-Philippinesrelations.

China-Philippines diplomatic relations were established in1975 during the administrationof former President Marcos. The Marcos family is considered the founder of modern Philippines- China friendship. Because ofthis historical background， theMarcos family has maintainedpositive interactions with China.On October 19， 2021， Marcos Jr.joined Chinese Ambassador tothe Philippines Huang Xilian at a ribbon-cutting ceremony of the “Photo Wall of Historic Moments of China-Philippines Relations”set up at the Chinese Embassy.Marcos Jr. said that the Marcosfamily will continue to supportfriendly cooperation between the Philippines and China， enhancemutual understanding and amity between the two countries， andcontribute to the long-termsteady development of bilateralrelations.

Marcos Jr. made no secret ofhis friendly feelings towardsChina. He has said that although the Philippines and China havedisputes over the South China

Sea， the disputes are not the sum total of bilateral relations， nor should the results of the South China Sea arbitration be regarded as a prerequisite for dialogue. He said that since China chose not to participate in the proceedings， the arbitration was invalid and in effect widened the differences between the two sides and resulted in tougher stances. Marcos Jr. said on many occasions that if the situation over the South China Sea issue should escalate， his administration would not seek assistance from the U.S. Instead， it would more likely seek a multilateral solution through diplomatic means by working with other ASEAN member states and the United Nations while continuing to carry out bilateral negotiations with China.

There will also be broad room for bilateral cooperation in economics during the administration of Marcos Jr. Since March， his campaign has highlighted the relevance of its central program featuring future blueprints for economic policy， which provided a broad space for future ChinaPhilippines cooperation in economics. After winning the election， Marcos now faces an economy and society severely damaged by COVID-19. To gain legitimacy for his administration and respond to popular expectations， Marcos Jr. will have to prioritize economic recovery. On security issues， he may be inclined to maintain the status quo. In the economic field， the Marcos Jr. administration will likely prioritize areas such as revitalizing tourism， promoting infrastructure expansion， expanding labor exports to provide a stable source of foreign exchange， developing the agricultural economy， and ensuring energy security and supply. In these areas， China and the Philippines will find much room for cooperation.

Over the last six years， Duterte’s “Build， Build， Build” infrastructure program synergized perfectly with the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） and scored significantprogress. Marcos Jr. indicated that he would continue with and upgrade the program. Philippine leadership seems to have reached a consensus on strengthening cooperation with China in infrastructure construction.

Philippines-U.S. Relations

Relations with the United States will undoubtedly remain the focal point of Marcos Jr.’s administration. The U.S. is a traditional ally of the Philippines， and it has had a broad and far-reaching influence. The U.S. has been involved with the Philippines for a hundred years and has agents in nearly every sector of the Philippines. That is a reality that Philippine politicians must face. Challenging American interests too much can endanger their rule. Sometimes， a politician’s opinion doesn’t matter， but only what he does to serve the interests of his administration and his family.

Marcos Jr. has repeatedly said that the Philippines is in a delicate situation to maintain both a special relationship with the U.S. and a good relationshipwith China. So it was very important to appoint a foreign minister who is familiar with the national conditions of both countries. On March 16， 2022， Marcos Jr. said that the Philippines needed to be friends with all and that the government’s code of conduct should be based on national interests. Meanwhile， he stressed that if China and the U.S. should “sneeze” at the same time， the Philippines could “disappear from the map.” Therefore， caution should be exercised on geopolitical issues.

In terms of military cooperation with the U.S.， Marcos Jr. repeated his position that he would not terminate the Mutual Defense Treaty or the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States. He is well aware of the special significance of the long-term special relationship between the Philippines and the U.S. Whatever his ultimate intentions， Marcos Jr. will not tip his hand easily.

Developing Philippines-China relations will not necessarily hinder Philippines-U.S. relations. The competition between the United States and China in the region has a tendency to intensify， so small countries have to choreograph a balancing act to safeguard their own interests. A questionnaire survey conducted in the Philippines in early May this year showed that of 1，070 respondents， 50.2 percent said the Philippines should pursue an independent foreign policy to maximize potential benefits， 33.2 percent said that the Philippines should pursue a balance of power policy， and only 16.6 percent of respondents explicitly supported the idea of taking a side.

In terms of personal style， Marcos Jr. is active and easygoing， with hobbies like reading and cooking. He also loves music. He was in a band while he was studying in the UK and became a huge fan of the Beatles and collector of their memorabilia. As president， he will need an ideal team with the ability to execute his decisions efficiently. Over the next six years， Marcos Jr. has much to do.